rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

Thanks for that clarification Harrycat. I hadn't quite trusted those 'best in four years' figures when they were released - can't help feeling it's all part of the electioneering process

And if it is all part of the electioneering process Toya, what difference does it make to your trading?

Are you saying that in your opinion the figs are manufactured therefore it's a short?

It doesn't matter what little old us think, it's a long whilst it's going up and it's a short when it's going down.

Right now it's a long until the trend is broken. You're trading on what you think rather than what you see.

It could all change very quickly tomorrow, but the Dow has some unfinished business. Futs up +19 right now.

Hi Chuckles: FTSE may have been "up +19 right now", but was still below my short from 5860, having closed an earlier short at that point from 5900 to bank my profit.

I'm seeing something of a downward trend since mid-September. But then maybe that's just me, getting into pessimistic mood as we approach winter? My plan is to keep the short running until around the end of October and then see where we are. I don't have time to sit and watch it all hour-by-hour currently.

As for the DOW: I have noticed that the FTSE hasn't kept up with it in recent weeks. Since mid-September, the DOW has actually hit an even higher-high on more than one occasion, while the FTSE has kept well below 5900.

Just my observations...

Europe uneasy in IMF spotlight as Tokyo meetings start

TOKYO | Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:08am BST

(Reuters) - Greece, Spain and the euro zone's slow progress toward debt reform took centre stage at IMF meetings on Friday despite Europe's best effort to remove itself from the spotlight.

The International Monetary Fund recommended that some of Europe's debt-burdened countries take a bit more time to reduce budget deficits, arguing that moving too fast is counter-productive because it hurts the economy.

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The shift was welcomed by some emerging market countries as well as long-time critics who say that the tough conditions attached to IMF loans inflict undue economic pain and make it harder for countries to grow their way out of debt.

"We have been arguing for some time that single-minded and draconian fiscal policies may be counterproductive and have a tendency to backfire," said Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega.

But Germany, Europe's largest creditor country and the key to any lasting fiscal reforms, pushed back against that advice and said reversing course on promised deficit reductions would only weaken credibility.

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Europe had made plenty of crisis-fighting progress, echoing comments from other European officials who said there should be greater attention paid to U.S. fiscal troubles too.

"Europe is not the source of all problems in the world," he told reporters at a briefing on Friday.

Well done on the profitable trade Toya and you're right, the Ftse hasn't followed the Dow to new highs but if you overlay it's performance over the Dow they're quite similar, as you would expect. Try not to forget that whilst you're shorting, billions of dollars, euros and yen across the globe is being printed and pumped into the markets. Who knows how they're going to unwind all ths QE!

Spain says no resistance in euro zone to an aid request

TOKYO | Fri Oct 12, 2012 7:36am BST

(Reuters) - Spain's economy minister said on Friday there was absolutely no political resistance from within the euro zone to a Spanish bailout request.

Asked if Spain wanted more political clarity rather than technical details before taking a decision on an aid request, Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said: "absolutely not."

"There was no pressure, in one sense or in the other," he said.

JPMorgan Profit Beats Estimates as Mortgage Revenue Soars

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the biggest U.S. bank by assets, posted a record third-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates as mortgage revenue soared 72 percent.
Net income rose 34 percent to $5.71 billion, or $1.40 a share, from $4.26 billion, or $1.02, a year earlier, the New York-based company said today in a statement. Earnings, which included a loss on accounting adjustments, beat the average estimate of $1.20 among 30 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

somewhat surprisingly and indeed worryingly, it has not inspired cash dow greatly

Skinny, thanx for posting that chart, I saw a similar comparison on another site, but that looked like the performances of the FTSE and DOW were very similar. Seems that isn't so. I stand corrected, happily so :-)

Wells Fargo Slides as Low Rates Squeeze Third-Quarter Margins

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), the most valuable U.S. bank and largest mortgage lender, dropped 4 percent in New York trading after reporting a record third-quarter profit that was marred by narrower profit margins.


The bank fell $1.42 to $33.76 at 9:31 a.m., the most since June, after posting a 22 percent rise in net income to $4.94 billion, or 88 cents a share, from $4.06 billion, or 72 cents, a year earlier, according to a statement from the San Francisco- based company. While record-low rates spurred homeowners to refinance, boosting the mortgage unit, that also led to less interest income on the bank’s loans and other investments.

USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 83.1 consensus 78.1 previous 78.3

Hopefully Toya has been able to bank her profit, or perhaps even let it run. Not exactly sure which way the DOW is heading now, despite my confidence yesterday. Very close to dropping through the uptrend in which case, watch out below. Although could be just a little spike-et to trick the hirsute animals.

Well the election machine is trying hard :- U.S. Stocks Rise as Consumer Confidence Tops Estimates

U.S. stocks rose, paring the biggest weekly drop in four months in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX), as an unexpected increase in a gauge of consumer confidence bolstered optimism in the economy.

J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. surged 7.3 percent after reporting sales higher than estimates. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) rose 0.3 percent after the biggest U.S. bank by assets posted third- quarter profit that beat estimates. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) slipped 3.1 percent after reporting revenue that fell short of estimates. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) slid 9.5 percent after cutting its third-quarter revenue forecast.

The S&P 500 advanced 0.3 percent to 1,437.25 at 10:14 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 63.92 points, or 0.5 percent, to 13,390.31.

The S&P 500 has lost 1.6 percent this week, heading for the biggest drop since June 1.
The benchmark equity gauge is still up 14 percent this year as companies reported better-than- expected earnings and the Federal Reserve announced a third round of bond purchases.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary October consumer sentiment index increased to 83.1 from 78.3 the prior month. The gauge was projected to fall to 78, according to the median forecast of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A separate report showed wholesale prices in the U.S. rose more than forecast in September, reflecting a jump in fuel costs that failed to trickle down to other goods.

dow is being very tiresome and is certainly testing that 13,000 level and my patience! .... ah well, nothing goes down (or up) in a straight line as I often comment

I'll see my +50 finish Cynic.

(I think) :-)

IMF warns critical for EU to speed up reform

TOKYO | Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:00am BST

(Reuters) - World finance leaders expressed cautious optimism on Saturday that Europe is making progress towards containing its debt crisis but said it was critical for all advanced economies to step up the pace of policy reforms to rebuild confidence.

In a communique after two days of talks, members of the International Monetary Fund warned that global economic growth was decelerating and that substantial uncertainties and downside risks remained.

Got the +50 or so during the session, but couldn't hold on. Dow is at a decision point here, any further downside and I'm targetting 12500. I reckon Toya could be right to be in the bear camp. Its still contrary to all the QE thats going on, but trade whats happening.

Couple of little snippets I thought were of interest re QE:

1. Equities have suffered from the law of diminishing returns from stimulus measures. Having risen 80 percent after QE1, equities returned 29 percent post QE2 and just 17 percent following QE3, according to data from FTSE. - I've read this kind of statement in various places recently.

2. "Investors have been focusing on supportive central bank polices to the exclusion of other things," said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones in St Louis. "Now with earnings season, we're seeing some of those other things come back into better balance and that's not as good news for the market."

These two statements pretty much sums up my reasoning for going short FTSE. I may be wrong of course, and it certainly wouldn't be the first time!

Taken profits this morning at 5800 and will sit tight for a while:

Reuters report:
'Euro zone sources told Reuters over the weekend that Spain could request a bailout in November and if it does, the request would likely be dealt with alongside a revised loan programme for Greece and a bailout for Cyprus in one big package. "We're finally starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel of the euro zone debt crisis, and this time it doesn't look like it's a train coming," said David Thebault, head of quantitative sales trading, at Global Equities.

"But at the same time, U.S. earnings are quite gloomy, which makes people cautious at this point." '