Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

according to dailyfx Friday's move on usd apparently due to year end squaring for many company year ends.
words such as "unexpected rally", "little apparent regard to price" and "ignore the economic data".

"If Americans suddenly start saving, the dollar could recover really fast as the current account deficit shrinks. In fact it is already shrinking fast. The spadework is there for the dollar to recover"-Jonathon Compton-Beblam Asset Management

Lots of talk about gbp rates cuts this week...so of course....cable off to the moon..

more evidence of dont trade what you think...

well cable just done my head in.

Was long from 42. closed half at 86 on the spike up to the 61.8 fib retracement.

then put a stop in for the rest at 55 at bounce low which got taken out and now it's exploded.

Is there something I should have seen to keep me in this. macd on 5 minute heading to cross the zero line perhaps ?

any advice greatly appreciated - i'm not too bad at the entries but my exits are a real problem.

well cables behaviour been very odd this am....
big swings....

god knows...

well i also got some eurusd left from 25 with stop at 31. it looks like the macd may cross the zero line on 5 minute soon but the 1 hour is nowhere near as helpful.

dunno - got a free run on it now but nervous as I would have expected the run on cable to have pulled it up more than this already.

I shall sit here patiently now and hope the pips come to me later.

With the exception of the dollar, Cap'n, the euro is down against the other majors.
Hope you're keeping your eye on the calendar ;)

Just had a look at the cable chart, Cap'n.
I take it you were stopped out for the sake of a couple of pips?
Essentially, it dropped down to MA support on the 1min chart.
You locked in profit with your stop - no risk there ;)
But really you ought to have placed your stop below this morning's low i.e. 2.0522.

I don't understand what technical signal there was to go long cable at 2.0542 in the first place other than that it must have been bang on 9:30 with the PMI data.

Pleas for rate cut as interbank loans dive

here is the rationale for the long on cable.

support on a horizontal trend line at 2.0530 from 21st 24th and Friday.

I waited for the bounce off 2.0530 which actually went a little lower at 2.0522 due to noise at 9:04 and took the trade on the next candle up at 9:05 when the 1 minute crossed

of course i should have waited a bit longer as the macd on the 5 minute hadn't actually closed enough by then for my liking but you takes your chance. I did however think that within a short time the 5 minute would come into line giving me the 1min, 5min and 1 hour all in favour.

Does that make sense ?

Oh and I should say 2.0536 is S1 on the 50 day SMA although that didn't essentially form much or any of the basis of my decision. Myabe it should have ?



yes of course stopped out for the sake of 1pip. my stop intially was in at my entry once cable hit 2.0580 ish. I then just thought to myself i'll trail it about 35 pts behind the high and lock my profits in. I really didn't expect it to get taken out (not at least at the speed at which it did). Live and learn - just frustrating.

I was hoping that you were going to say something else there, CC. Everything that you've said points towards trading what you thought, not what you saw.

I had hoped that you were going to say that the 1 minute MACD was passing up through the zero line at the time, as that was the only justification that I could really see for the trade. In reply, I was going to suggest that you perhaps should've stayed in the trade until the 1 minute MACD passed back down through the zero line the other way.

Just an idea.

Oh, and I also think that Chocopops is right about putting your initial stop at 2.0522 being the previous low.

I look at a trade in 3 stages. Limitation, Protection and Optimisation.

Limitation is the point at which you bail out if it starts to go wrong. If you buy a market because you feel it's going to go up, then it won't make a lower low. That's why the initial stop should go just below the previous low imo.

Protection is all about not losing money. Once a trade is safely into profit, I move the stop to entry. That way if the market pulls back I won't lose anything.

Optimisation is about staying in a trade as long as possible. Once a trade is clearly moving with a trend I look for something which will trail behind the price as a stop and keep me in the trade for as long as possible, but take me out on a turn. The best trending indicator is probably a moving average, but SAR's can also be useful.

"Limitation, Protection and Optimisation."

I look at sex the same way....lol

well that is to say I am more "Optimism"...and my partner more "limitation" !!



seroiusly...if no rate cut....in the uk.... back to 2.10 for Cable

'Everything that you've said points towards trading what you thought, not what you saw'

Must admit that comment hit a raw nerve with me Hils.

I think I have been attempting to trade FX for about two years now and this latest attempt is probably my last. When things don't go right it's time to stop being stubborn and work out where it's going wrong. Too often I have opened trades on the premise a line has been hit and therefore it must reverse, only to see the pair merrily trogging along. Essentially placing a trade on what I think rather than what I can actually see. Some time ago I posted what I thought FX trading was all about and although I haven't looked back I guess it was all a little naive. Anyway I now have my own rules (again) and this time I will stick to them because they have been developed on additional experience and I know if I don't do what I say it will end in disaster and I really want to make this work.

1. Pot preservation is everything - I cannot afford to lose money and therefore the following must apply:

a. Never ever commit all of my margin to one trade, an entry psoition is likely to be less than perfect and although I may be right in determining the overall trend, FX has a habit of kicking you where it hurts. If I retain margin I can always add later on.

b. Use sensible stops, if the trade is wrong get over it and start again, I won't get it right all the time.

2. Do not trade for the sake of trading, there will always be an opportunity and patience is everything.

a. Wait for the right entry, make sure the indicators are all pointing in the same direction. If they are not, it's a risky trade and at best a 50-50 call. I can make the odds better by waiting.

b. If necessary, sit on my hands. walk away from the screen.

3. Cut losses, let profits run.

a. Improve my entry position and I will be happier to let my profits run and conversley less likey to have to cut a loss if the entry is right. Poor entry stimulates anxiety and a relief just to break even.

Discipline is everything, if I do not stick to my rules I will fail, it is simple as that.

The trick now is to do what I say and not what I think :)

pth

My biggest revelation in trading...(regardless of the instrument)...was how EASY it was to learn the trading rules...but how HARD it was to apply them...

knowing HOW to make profits is not the same as actually making profits.

I had hoped that you were going to say that the 1 minute MACD was passing up through the zero line at the time, as that was the only justification that I could really see for the trade

Just to add my thoughts on the above.

The price was around the bottom pivot point price. Indicators on various time frames were showing overbought and most importantly the candles on the 5 min charts showed a definite signal of possible reversal. On the 1 min chart there was a nice 123 entry

pth, read an article giving 20 odd bullet points about daytrading. One of the best for me is (as hils says) never let a profit turn into a loss.

See cable is struggling at the weekly pivot point(645 area)

Ofski tonight over the channel, sounds like theres a bit of snow about

Goforit not trading Cable at the moment, that particular cross has caused me significant grief so am leaving it alone; have been shorting the euro/yen since Friday and I think still some mileage left yet. Well, I hope so :)

Cable still a long atm...imo....