Bioprogress is a stock I have been in and out of quite a few times since it floated in May but not much mention here on the Investors' Room. Does anyone else follow this stock. I see it is up 1.5p today and a few good buyers seem to have appeared.

pth

I have always been rather verbose! ;-)))

Lovely out here. Won't last long though.

I hear the verdict is out today. Anyone confirm?

what verdict?

I assume the SEO crap.

100p today

Madman. No, the verdict isnt out yet.

The verdict is fairly irrelevant IMO.

I tend to agree its irrelevant to the long term prospects.

watch out next week when aim shares are bundled into adr's for the nas listing.Long termers hold fire,you will be rewarded come 3rd week of sept when nas listing is filed.Wish you all much prosperity.

Amongst the c**P on ADVFN sometimes there is a gem this from Mizmas

Advice from the Gurus

Since I am certainly not a guru, I can comment on what we should make of the flurry of rumour and speculation this week. Think of this post as a summary of where we now are.

I am going to split the post into two parts: company developments & market perception. Often the two are not in line with each other.

Company matters

BIOTEC


This seems a straightforward good news story, with the likelihood of lots more good news to come. We will get an update from Colgate (and possibly BPRG) on sales of Max-Fresh. This product is important because it raises BioTec's profile. We will get some news on the yeast-packaged Nicotine strip development - but not yet. There is a good chance, but no certainty, of completly new news on WAFERTAB - specifically the proposed JV.

There is also the bad news. All companies have their share of setbacks (for example the fire regs issues that prohibited development at March). If shareholders are lucky these will be hidden behind good news and seem like merely useful changes of direction.

The Hurricanes in Florida do provide some bad news. They have undoubtedly slowed down developments at BioTec. Having all your staff evacuate their homes 3 times in one month (since Ivan, though likely to miss Tampa, will nevertheless very likely cause another evacuation) does not make for smooth running. How much production has been lost? Could be anything from 3 days to 3 weeks. They may be able to make up any short-fall with higher throughput at other times. We shall see. Ivan provides the possibility of dramatic bad news and worry, if it strikes directly at Tampa, this however is unlikely and we will know more by Monday.

SWALLOW

All the obvious speculation for the last through weeks has been around SWALLOW. We know that Wyeth, and possibly Cardinal, are going to use it. If BPRG gain entitlement over Patent 1 and therefore control of RF sealing there is much speculation that Cardinal will make some sort of move to protect their future InGel markets - maybe buy SWALLOW outright. Even if they gain only joint entitlement to Patent 1 there will be a settlement with SEO which must result in new income for BPRG.

I see the relationship between SWALLOW and RF sealing as this. For non-gelatin liquid-fill encapsulation there are three viable methods: XGEL/SWALLOW, HPMC and starch. (InGel - Cardinal/Scherer's new venture, uses starch. For example www.encapdrugdelivery.com uses HPMC). XGEL is technically superior to normal HPMC in that it has a better oxygen barrier, and has many advantages over wet starch. I would dearly like some informed cost/benefit comparison of these three techniques.

RF sealing however promises (it is a new technology not yet taken to production) faster production times for any of these materials.

It is clear, from the 6 figure option payment, that Wyeth want SWALLOW and theat they are worried about other potential buyers. All this validates the persistant rumours that SWALLOW will sell for a good price.

SEPTUM

All is quiet on this front at the moment. We know that Glaxo has been looking at SEPTUM. We do not know whether it will license, or when. Bulls of XGEL will assume that all XGEL technologies will be licensed and any delay is just Pharmas taking their time. However there is no guarantee that this will happen. There are competitive technologies, and we do not have a clear idea of the relative merits of SEPTUM. Still, BioProgress seems confident that they will get a license, and if so this technology is potentially very valuable.

NROBE
This commercialisation, run independently of BPRG by FMC and Farmasierra, is the most difficult to evaluate. Critically, we don't know whether BPRG plans to collect large ongoing profits from the film-supply business. High-margin profits are guaranteed from this for the first 3 years of commercialisation - start 2006 - end 2008. After this point BPRG would be a contract manufacturer with a dominant position - due to its other XGEL activities - in a field open to competition. FMC seem confident that this technology can be marketed, and the technical advantages are clear, but this income stream remains speculative until FMC has sales.

TABWRAP

This one is now simple. We expect further news of Perrigo's commercialisation. we expect news of other, probably product-specific, licenses (3 of the 4 sectors are not licensed at the moment). We still don't know what the eventual takeup of TABWRAP will be, so the level of income (beyond Perrigo) is speculative. But Perrigo alone will provide some good income, which should start in 2005.

Ostomy Bags

These get forgotten, but the whispers are that this is still very much on track. The CS figures suggest 1.2M and 1.8M revenue in 2005 & 2006. (profits are very slightly less, although this is royalty, because of the contracted 10% earn-out) but after these two years margin will be 100%.

The only other figures we have come from Convatec themselves, via IC, and are higher. We will have to wait and see.

Market Perception

First, the bad. BPRG is still a BB favourite, and traders paradise. This means the SP will be subject to sudden swings - up or down - with little warning. the "BB favourite" label makes everyone cautious: can it really represent anything other than a speculative punt when there is so much BB hype driving the SP?

Against this: the long SP decline has taken the shine of the hype. Trading remains, but this can as easily drive the SP lower as higher. We have rumours which I am inclined to believe that there are currently 3 big UK buyers, and many more US buyers lined up for the NASDAQ listing. Certainly the price seems well supported in the 90s.

Will NASDAQ drive the price higher? I would be hopeful, but cautious. The company may look less attractive at SP 1.00 than it did at SP 0.70. GH can hardly say that he regrets the recent dramatic SP increase, and it is certainly deserved, but it may temper demand on NASDAQ.

As it stands, a much higher SP probably requires 2006 earnings estimates greater than given by CS. We have many RNS-sanctioned reasons for expecting this earnings re-rating. The markets will believe it if Brokers Estimates change. This will happen in two ways. US Brokers will come out with their own earnings estimates, and CS may revise upwards the "official" estimates. We know US Brokers are interested, and they do not need to be made company Broker to follow BPRG and give their own estimates.

Short-term? We expect Interims on September 29th, with NASDAQ listing delayed until around the time of the Interims. We expect the Court Case result this month. If positive, it will help the SP - though expectations are running high so this may not be so dramatic. I would be cautious not about content (which I think could be very exciting) but about timing of all the current rumours. The Court case itself could have a Verdict next week, or it could be delayed till later this month. We don't really know. Maybe the real reason for NASDAQ being a week or so delayed, as is rumoured, is to get a Court Verdict out of the way.

There is no guarantee that any of the post-Court Case excitement will happen immediately: most likely Cardinal will need time to negotiate, if they do act. Wyeth are likely to take longer to sign, the bigger their eventual license. We need not expect any information from BPRG while these delicate negotiations are on-going.

So expect even more SP volatility - but with considerable upside.



I realise that this BB, in the absence of news, has become a chat-room for BPRG investors and hangers-on. I have to say that the last 4 days have made me seriously consider no longer posting, except at weekends. The quality of the chat - let alone real debate - has degenerated to the point where much is just unpleasant. I have a long filter-list. I am very tempted, although it is against my principles, to add a few of the regulars (+ aliases) since this blatant SP manipulation, combined with lack of any new content or analysis, makes them pretty useless. I won't name names - since those guilty know well who they are.

Now I have had my whinge - I'll keep quiet about the matter.

Best wishes,
Tom

BioProgress PLC
13 September 2004


Press Release 13 September 2004


BioProgress plc

Notice of results and update on NASDAQ listing

BioProgress plc (LSE:AIM: BPRG), a provider of innovative delivery mechanisms
for the pharmaceutical oral dosage markets, will be announcing its Interim
Results for the six months to 30 June 2004 on Wednesday 29 September 2004.

BioProgress also advises that, due to the timing of these Interim Results, the
planned listing of its Ordinary Shares in the form of American Depositary
Receipts (ADRs) on the NASDAQ National Market in the USA has been changed to
20th October 2004. This will ensure the Company is not in a closed period
during the run-up to the NASDAQ listing.

BioProgress is not currently planning to issue further shares or raise further
capital at the time of the NASDAQ listing. Taylor Rafferty
(
www.taylor-rafferty.com
) has been appointed to advise on Public Relations and
Investor Relations in the USA.

- Ends -

For further information:
BioProgress plc

Graham Hind, Chief Executive Tel: +44 (0) 1354 655 674

grahamhind@bioprogress.com

www.bioprogress.com

I know long term the results will be a lot better but any ideas of what upcoming results will be like?

A bit late to change the listing date.

Unfortunately news management in BPRG is garbage. Potential is there and I hope they haven't cocked that bit up!!!

;-)

New patent granted


http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200409140700219176c.html

Yipee yet another success. These RNS are never ending here

Film specialist gets honeycomb capsule patent


14/09/2004 - BioProgress has had one of its pending patents granted in Europe, shoring up its intellectual property in the area of foamed films used for rapid delivery of drugs into the mouth.

The patent relates to a new type of capsule made from foamed film, whereby gas is blown into the film during production resulting in a film with a honeycombed structure. The voids in the film may be gas filled, empty or filled with other materials to produce specific taste-burst characteristics or to deliver active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).
The light honeycombed film structure results in capsules that dissolve rapidly, releasing the capsule contents into the mouth. The capsule wall film residue also dissolves quickly with a pleasant melt-in-the-mouth sensation that the company claims is more pleasant than rival technologies based on gelatine. These are chewy and remain in the mouth long after the capsule contents have been delivered, it says.

Quick-dissolving film strips are already being used in breath freshening product introductions from Warner Lambert and Wrigley's in the USA and Europe, and Boots in the UK, as well as vitamin products. BioProgress has designs on adapting this technology for the pharma sector, and earlier this year acquired the edible film business of Florida-based Aquafilm to boost its capabilities in this area.

BioProgress believes that the primary advantage of its foam-filled approach is that it supports the delivery of drugs requiring higher individual doses than is possible in a single square of dissolve-in-the-mouth film. This is simply because the physical film volume in a small square of conventional film is too small to accommodate a large dose of drug.

The patent also covers a double chamber capsule a technology that BioProgress is developing under the Septum banner with its conventional cellulose films than can be made from this foamed film. This will enable two separate actives to be released simultaneously in-the-mouth.

While still used in only a minority of oral medicines - with estimated annual sales $1.7 billion (1.5m) in 2002 - fast-melt delivery is experiencing 40 per cent growth a year as companies turn to it to differentiate their products in the marketplace. BioProgress also has another fast-melt technology, called Soluleaves,

Graham Hind, BioProgress chief executive, said that the company was making progress on building the capacity to work with foamed film capsules, with the preliminary machine design for their now completed.

http://www.inpharma.com/news/news-NG.asp?n=54695-film-specialist-gets>

This baby is a beauty!!!

Good patent news boosted coatings technology group BioProgress, after the one of its films for oral delivery was granted a patent in Europe. The film is known as a foamed film, whereby gas is blown into a layer to create a honeycomb structure. The spaces in the structure can be empty, gas filled, stuffed with materials that taste nice or active drugs for delivery. The machines for creating the film have been completed and the company says they will be useful for higher doses of drugs that cannot be contained in single-square melt in the mouth films.

From ftsefrankey on III Christows have this week put a 3.60 price target on BPRG in the next year!

Mmmm I was looking for 10 myself :-)

In that case I will buy more