Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Too many sharks for my liking. Staying out till after the holiday. Direction should be clearer then and you'll be able to get the decent moves on volume.

The shops are more inviting atm.

Hilary did you just call to wish me happy Easter ?

No, I called to say that I'd given Manolo your address so he could send you the bill for my birthday pressie.

:o)

He's not called see you soon ;-) shoes only !

Hil: so when's the birthday?

It's not until August, Derek, but I just wanted to ensure that Boyse was up-to-speed with my pressie.

:o)

Up-to speed ;-)

Where can I get accurate High/Low Close (22:00GMT) data for currency pairs?

Mainly,

GBP/USD
EUR/USD
USD/JPY

Found the data I need on www.dailyfx.com (Doh!)

Have a good weekend all...

Update Time: (April 10th) Hong Kong 17:00 London 10:00 New York 05:00



FX Analyst - Pro Commentary - April 12th

Schaff Tutorials - System Alerts





General Market Conditions
Since the last update on Thursday we have seen Dollar supports hold in general and a recovery. While we are naturally Dollar bullish for the medium term and this recovery suits our view it would be easy to revert to a bullish stance. However, strategic resistance levels have yet to be broken and it would be more prudent to have this confirmation before looking for a direct follow-through higher. With Monday being a partial holiday it is more likely that any movement today will be restricted although we look for a break from Friday's tight holiday trading. One small clue is the performance against the Japanese Yen which was much stronger than expected and we feel the bias here is higher now. We shall have to see whether this strength will be sufficient to drag it higher against the Europeans. We do feel that this should happen - but we need to see whether this will break any key resistance. Have a profitable week.



USDJPY
Price: 106.45
Day View
Resistance: 106.75 106.95 107.30 107.55

Support: 106.35 106.15 105.85 105.65



Bias: Cautiously bullish to 107.00 and then 107.50

Bullish: Break of the 106.20 resistance was unexpected and has brought further strength, thus far to 106.76. We feel the upside should be preferred and while support at 106.20 holds we look for gains to extend initially to 106.95-00 where a pullback should ensue. Following this we look for strength towards 107.50-60 where we expect a cap.



Bearish: The strength shown on Thursday and Friday tends to argue against a short term bearish view. Only a break below 106.20 and then 105.85-95 would generate follow-through to 104.95. Alternatively any late test of 107.50-60 should bring a pullback at the very least.





Week View
Resistance: 107.50 108.90 110.20 110.57

Support: 105.85 104.95 103.65 103.10



The move lower reversed from 104.96 and has made steady progress higher above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and brings some evidence that possibly the 103.42 low was a strategic low. Schaff Trend Cycle has returned to 100 while FXS-RSI has also dipped below overbought territory and is in neutral territory. We are left mixed with the structure ambiguous but the recovery over the past couple of days looks progressive though still the long term picture requires a break above 107.50-85.



Bullish: The strength over the last couple of days does give a bullish bias and we do feel that while 105.85 olds there is good chance of a recovery up to 107.50-60 but here we must be cautious. We do feel this will provoke a pullback at the very least but there is a good chance that we could see follow-through to 108.70-90. We feel this would confirm a major reversal but from this area there could still be a further pullback.



Bearish: Until 107.21 and 107.50-60 is broken there is still some risk that there will be renewed downside. We require a break below 105.85 initially which would cause a test at the 104.95 low. Should this level break then look for losses to continue to new lows. Should this be the case, then watch for supports at 101.75 and 101.20.



Month View
(Updated 3rd April)

Resistance: 105.20 108.90 110.00 112.30

Support: 103.30 101.30 99.50 96.00



The rally from 105.17 reached the first major resistance at 112.30 but from there has seen an unexpected decline to new lows. We are slightly mixed at this point with monthly cycles due to find a low around this time. However, the shorter term price structure still appears to favor further lows and we see potential to 102.30-40 at least and possibly the 101.30 corrective low. However, do keep in mind the monthly cycles and any break above 105.25 and then 106.80 could generate stronger gains.





EURUSD
Price: 1.2085
Day View
Resistance: 1.2110 1.2125 1.2145 1.2160

Support: 1.2070 1.2045 1.2020 1.1980



Bias: A mild downward bias today

Bullish: The reversal from 1.2218 may appear bearish but this is not yet confirmed. We do have a preference for a further move lower today but feel that the 1.2020-45 area could be hard to beat and look for a recovery from there. Thus from this lower support area or on a break above 1.2125 we would look for gains to 1.2160 at least. Further resistance is at the 1.2218 high.



Bearish: Although we hold a bearish bias we feel this may be limited today. There is resistance at 1.2110-25 and while this holds we look for a minor move lower to 1.2045-50 (with some risk of seeing 1.2020) but a re reluctant to look for much further than that. Only a break of 1.2020 would allow price to move lower down to 1.1980 and below there would see 1.1910.







Week View
Resistance: 1.2125 1.2235 1.2300 1.2390

Support: 1.2045 1.1980 1.1810 1.1720



Thursday saw a reversal from 1.2218 that has tested the 4-hour Pivot Cloud support. Schaff TC1 is now declining while FXS-RSI is also declining but in neutral territory. The reversal from 1.2218 is encouraging for the underlying bearish stance but we need a break of 1.1980-1.2020 to confirm the drop. Until then we must be aware of any break above 1.2275-1.2310 which would then look for a move to 1.2456 once again in the final leg of an expanded flat correction.



Bullish: The strength during part of last week failed at 1.2218 but has not yet confirmed actual reversal lower. While 1.2020-45 holds there remains some risk that any reversal above the 1.2230-40 area would risk a move above 1.2310 that would then imply a retest of the 1.2456-660 area which should complete an expanded flat correction where a cap is expected.



Bearish: We continue to consider our underlying bearish stance looking for a decline to the Double Top target around 1.1750 looks to be on course though the current reluctance for price to sustain any losses is concerning. The cap at 1.2218 was encouraging and we naturally prefer a bearish stance but only breach of 1.1980-1.2020 would confirm losses down to 1.1810 and possibly 1.1720.





Month View
(Updated 3rd April)

Resistance: 1.2325 1.2455 1.2655 1.2927

Support: 1.1720 1.1585 1.1380 1.1250



While the progress lower has been choppy we do feel that the repeated rejection around 1.2400-55 and the decline from there should now allow price to move down to the Double Top target around 1.1720-50. Watch this carefully as it may provide a pullback higher.





USDCHF
Price: 1.2820
Day View
Resistance: 1.2860 1.2895 1.2910 1.2945

Support: 1.2785 1.2765 1.2745 1.2710



Bias: A mild upward bias today

Bullish: The recovery from 1.2709 looks positive and we do feel the odds favor further modest strength today. Thus while support at 1.2765-85 holds the bias will be higher and back above 1.2860 would call for follow-through towards 1.2945-65 but we feel this could cap for today. Further resistance is found at 1.3000 & 1.3035.



Bearish: The reversal from 1.2709 has been modest and we tend to feel there should be further strength today. There is support at 1.2765-85 and only below this level would indicate further losses that should quickly challenge the 1.2710 low. Any break of this area would cause losses to extend to 1.2645 at least and possibly 1.2605.





Week View
Resistance: 1.2955 1.3035 1.3140 1.3215

Support: 1.2765 1.2645 1.2590 1.2515



The move higher from 1.2709 looks encouraging but price has not broken above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and until this occurs we have to be cautious about being prematurely bullish. Schaff Trend Cycle has remained at zero while FXS-RSI has recovered from oversold territory and is rising. While we retain a longer term bullish view until the 1.2945-65 area is broken we still must acknowledge the risk of a larger flat correction that is 1.2645 breaks would see a move back down to 1.2515-20 once again.



Bullish: Recovery from 1.2709 is encouraging for the underlying bullish view but we would prefer to have the move higher confirmed. This would require a break back above 1.2945-65 which would then imply further strength through to the 1.3078 high and probably follow-through to 1.3140 and possibly even the 1.3190-1.3230 area. If seen this higher area could prompt a pullback.



Bearish: The risk of a larger flat correction which would imply a return to 1.2515 has not yet been negated. While resistance at 1.2945-65 holds there is still risk of a move below 1.2709 and then onto 1.2645 and 1.2605 and following a correction a leg down to 1.2515. However, this should be seen as a medium term low and a great buying opportunity.





Month View
(Updated 3rd April)

Resistance: 1.3085 1.3235 1.3410 1.3700

Support: 1.2625 1.2515 1.2180 1.1700



The expected move higher has met with some early choppy price action but we feel this should now move onto the 1.3220-35 area this month at the very least and do see some risk of seeing gains extend to 1.3410. Watch this area since it could cause a pullback. Further resistance is around 1.3700.





GBPUSD
Price: 1.8310
Day View
Resistance: 1.8325 1.8350 1.8375 1.8395

Support: 1.8295 1.8280 1.8245 1.8190



Bias: Mild bearish preference on the day

Bullish: Failure to break above 1.8485 does not look encouraging and we do not see much room for any bullish stance today. Only a break above 1.8325 would set up a retest of the 1.8350-75 area. Any stronger showing would need a move above 1.8395 which would lead to further gains towards 1.8465 once again.



Bearish: Loss from 1.8466 was quite encouraging to the underlying bearish view and we feel the bias should remain bearish today. However, we feel this could be limited. While 1.8325 holds we feel the bias remains lower towards the 1.8245 level but feel this could hold on the day. Only a break here would cause follow-through to 1.8190 and possibly 1.8160.





Week View
Resistance: 1.8395 1.8465 1.8545 1.8605

Support: 1.8245 1.8160 1.8090 1.8045



Failure at 1.8465 has caused the Pound to break back below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud although there has been little follow-through as yet. Schaff Trend Cycle is now at zero while FXS-RSI has also declined but is in neutral territory. We prefer to retain our bearish stance but require the 1.8455-85 area to continue to hold and for a break of 1.8245 to confirm further losses.



Bullish: Failure at 1.8466 does not favor a bullish stance. For any return to strength we need a break first above 1.8375-95 and then the 1.8466 high. Should this occur the odds would favor a move up to 1.8545-95 at least and probably all the way through to 1.8720.



Bearish: The failure at 1.8465 is encouraging for the underlying bearish view. To see the decline resume further we need a move below first support at 1.8245 which we feel will cause amove to 1.8160 at least with more chance of a deeper move lower to 1.8045-90 which could cause a pullback. Overall we look for a move down to 1.7820 and probably further.



Month View
(Updated 3rd April)

Resistance: 1.8875 1.9025 1.9140 1.9305

Support: 1.8000 1.7820 1.7660 1.7370



The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and should easily reach the 1.7820 initial target and we feel that while this may cause a brief reaction higher the downside is still preferred following that test. Further support is found at 1.7660.

Good Morning All,

Thanks for all the info Hilary. Looks like a quiet week then.

Seems like there is a lot of attenion on the Yen today..

Looks like GBP USD has reached the resistance above and flown through.

GBPUSD 18375 e.t.c

What was that about a quiet week?

Ok... the rest of the week will be quiet.. Maybe..

GBP/USD Looks like Hil's post was on the money. 1.8125 was reached breaking the 1.8160. Looks like the pullback they suspected is in place. This suggests that a further drop to 1.7660 is on its way.. I cant imagine anywhere better than forex for a move as quick as an 800pip drop.. With a few 100pip pullbacks. All in 3 - 12 days.. Probably closer to the 3.

So IMO 1.8220 over night more dropping to commence from 7am (7.15am after ya cup of tea). No postion till tomorrow though for me..

France CPI in the last few minutes giving the EUR a lift. This should halt the rise in the USD against the European majors for the time being and give a fresh entry signal for the USD bulls later on today. A high will also enable a falling resistance line to be drawn which will act as a good stop loss for Cable and EUR/USD bears. All imho.

scuse my ignorance again! do you mean that the /$ will increase (ie go higher than 1.8090)

Sue,

What I'm saying is that the EUR/USD cross could go higher this morning and, if it does, it might pull Cable up higher with it. It doesn't yet alter the general bearish stance since 7am yesterday morning though. It's of likely interest to a) scalpers and b) bears who are short and might wish to consider the option of covering and re-entering at a higher level.

edit. Note the emphasis on could. There's nothing that says it's got to rally.

Hilary

thanks

Intresting week for cable.. At a very intresting point.. 1.8000

179.72 now, key support area ?