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Hils,

Thank you for the advice, have been looking at why I thought 62 was a good idea and I must admit I can't see it now. I was watching the DOW at the time which was falling off, of course it smartly recovered and next time I won't be influenced by any one single factor, basically I was trying to second guess the market, der :(

I also have a line drawn on my chart at the .04 level, which for this move is pretty key, goes through here and 162.55 is a distinct possibility. Fortunately it seems to be running out of steam now.

eur jpy 1 hr chart looks positive to me, although we could have a fall back as 1 min (edit and 5 min) chart looking a bit overbought.

I still reckon that we'll see the dottie line hit zero on the H1, Seymour.

Also have a Fib retracement level just above 162.04 at 162.10

Sorry to keep banging on about the DOW, but it's pretty clsoely correlated with the Euro/Yen at the moment (IMO). It's having a bloody good go at getting through Friday's high as I type.

weekly pivot point around 162 level

i wondered if there are any views on usdjpy right now.

It's clearly falling on a downtrend line from 110.40 to 109.68 where it is now.

109.68ish appears to be the 38% fib value for the bottom on the 27th to the top on the 1st. There is also some congestion and possible support around here from the 29th.

The 1 minute looks like it could be heading for the zero line on the macd and the 5 minute has turned already.

I don't think the 1 hour looks very clever at all though for a long.


I am principly staying out cos if this level doesn't hold I don't see any decent place to put a stop at all for 100 pts and that's too many for me



edit : as I complete this the 1 minute has indeed passed through the zero line but it ain't pulled it up.

I'm glad i've written this down - I am definitely going to stay out and find a better trade but I wondered if anyone else had an opinion.

usd yen....is basically a dow follower.... most of the time...

The greenback declined against the euro and yen Tuesday morning in New York amid concerns about the health of the US economy and renewed speculation that the worst of the subprime lending crisis may not be over.On Monday, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren warned that the worst of the problems in the housing market was yet to be seen, while San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen indicated that economic growth would be weak in the fourth quarter. Monday''s remarks further solidified expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week. The question for many has become whether the Fed will elect to slash rates by either 25 or 50 basis points.The dollar fell sharply versus the euro Tuesday morning, dropping to 1.4750 from an overnight level near 1.4650. The dollar hit a record low of 1.4966 in late November.Traders considered data showing that Euro zone industrial producer prices rose 0.6% from the prior month in October. In September, producer prices were up 0.4%. Economists expected producer price inflation to climb at the same pace of 0.4% in October.The dollar extended its losses from the previous session against the yen Tuesday morning, slipping to 1.0960 from an overnight level near 110.40. With the decline, the dollar moved further away from Friday''s 2-week high above 111.Japan''s monetary base rose 1% year-on-year in November to 87.16 trillion yen, a report from the Bank of Japan showed Tuesday. A year ago, the monetary base fell 22.3%.The dollar was uncertain against the sterling Tuesday morning, moving in a range between 2.0585 and 2.0650. The dollar has been stable since hitting a 2-week low near 2.0850 last Thursday.The greenback moved back above par versus its Canadian counterpart Tuesday morning, with many analysts predicting that the Bank of Canada will cut its benchmark interest rate at 9 am ET. The dollar rose to a 2-month high of 1.0050, recovering from an early drop below par.

Tuesday morning, the Bank of Canada announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.25 percent. This marks the Canadian central bank''s first rate cut in over three years.The bank''s accompanying statement suggested that the decision to lower interest rates for the first time since April of 2004 was partly based on easing concerns about the pace of inflation.While the Bank of Canada said that the Canadian economy has been growing in line with expectations due to strength in domestic demand, it noted that both total consumer price inflation and core inflation were below its expectations in October. The tamer than expected inflation reflected increased competitive pressures related to the level of the Canadian dollar, the bank said, adding that it now expects inflation over the next several months to be lower than expected. The bank noted that there continue to be upside risks to its inflation projection due to the strength of domestic demand and weak productivity growth, but it also said other developments since October suggest that the downside risks to its inflation projection have increased.The Bank of Canada said, "Global financial market difficulties related to the valuation of structured products and anticipated losses on U.S. sub-prime mortgages have worsened since mid-October, and are expected to persist for a longer period of time."Subsequently, the bank said that there is an increased risk to the prospects for demand for Canadian exports as the outlook for the U.S. economy, and in particular the U.S. housing sector, has weakened.Based on all these factors, the Bank of Canada said it determined that has been a shift to the downside in the balance of risks around its outlook for inflation through 2009. The bank added that it would assess all economic and financial developments and the balance of risks when it makes its next interest rate decision on January 22.

Cable always seems to have 2.0600 in its sights...bit above bit below.....never loosing sight of it

Halifax offering 6.75% for 3 month time deposits over 500...

Is that a 3 month bond thingie?

sort of...money market fixed deposits...

http://www.halifax.co.uk/savings/fixedwebsaver.asp

and you can have up to 5 running at once..

Stops are always a topic of conversation, where to put them, too close and you get taken out, too big and you atke a hit, well don't forget to put in a LIMIT.

Opened a long position late yesterday afternoon on Euro/Yen at 162.20, thie trade based on breaking above previous price resistance but mostly on a 4 hr retracement level resistance. So far so good, tootled off to bed with a target of 163.05 in mind based on the next Fib level, but failed to put in a limit (don't ask me why, I have no idea). Switched on the mouse driven PC this morning to find 163.05 was hit on the button and I have closed quite a bit further down.

Moral of the story, put a ****ing limit in!!!!!!!!!

Anyway, still a profitable trade, but not as many pips as it should have been.

Looking for another long entry.

Been playing with EUR JPY again, small short term moves but wondering where the new direction will be.

Was away yesterday but I saw that your dottie 1 hr line hit zero yesterday as predicted Hils :-)

Agreed SC, as staed earlier was looking to go long but now not so sure, so waiting for some sort of direction.

Must admit I fancy long, 1 hr chart looks overall up.

edit and it's looking up - was too busy typing :-)

further edit at 2.50pm, going no-where :-(

You can rely upon the dottie line, Seymour.

A week or two back, foale questioned where cable might be at the end of the year for a bit of fun. I suggested that it was in the downleg of the uptrend since early 2006 and it would find support from the uptrend at around $2.02 before Xmas. Conveniently the support line is currently at $2.0190 (by my feeble attempt at line drawing) today ahead of the MPC decision.

It's probably fair to say that support could get smashed if they cut rates. Personally I think they will resist the calls of the business community to cut rates. Their primary mandate is to use interest rates to keep inflation within the Government's target and, with oil at $100, they are struggling to do that. If they do decide to cut rates it won't lead to cheaper credit because the debt market isn't showing any real sign of life and it will only fuel inflation further, so they'll be forced to hike rates again in the New Year.

Anyway kick off is at noon. We'll see.

Thanks Hils. See ya later.

Foale, have sent email