The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

Hey Watcher

Before you get attacked anymore, I should state that I didn't see your post as negative or an attack against me (although bahouse thanks for the back up while I was sleeping), back to watcher I saw your post as mearly just something we were all thinking, when I read it for the first time a little feeling of panic rose up through my body too, but after looking at it more carefully it seemed to be talking about two different sets of contracts.

Before I explain, let me say this, anyone who wants an answer from me, must remember that Tokyo is 9 hours ahead of the UK, I'll try to answer any questions I can, providing I researched it before, it helps that we all keep this thread about the facts!!!

Now onto the other 14 bidders -

Iraq's oil ministry had received in August separate offers for technical studies on the RUMAILA in the south and Kirkuk OILFIELDS(notice the plural) in the north. The ministry had expected to award the contact in late September to one of 14 companies bidding on the deal, but security concerns pushed back the contacts award date indefinitely.


Firstly Petrel has NO interest in the RUMAILA area, the part that probably scared us all the most (and yes even me) was see the Kirkuk name there, as that is of course the 1st tender, although stated in the article is "Iraq's oil ministry had received in August separate offers for technical studies", just one quick look at Petrel's website would show you that "The Kirkuk tender to develop the Khurmala dome will be submitted by the end of March", so PET's tenders were submitted in at the end of March and are for Development not techinical studies, add this to the e-mail I received from David Horgan about other companies not being able to legally join in the tender process(as the article states the Iraqi ministry received tenders for these back in August), and it clearly shows that these tenders are for techinical studies on another oil field in Kirkuk, PET's tender is to develop the Khurmala dome. There have been so many articles written about this tender process by all the financial and investing newsletters/websites, etc, and they only ever quoted three 3 companies as making it into the 2nd stage of the tendering process, now out of thin air there are supposed to be 14, that would be completly illegal, The Iraqis are going to keep these tenders above board.


To summarise, YES I am very happy with my investment, and will actually be buying more on Wednesday (the absolute final top up). Other articles have stated that the tenders are to be awarded by the end of this month, from all the information available, and by PET being sworn to secretcy to the Iraqi oil ministery - hence the news black out. The only company we have ever heard of having anythig to do with the 3rd stage of the tender process (the final stage) is PET, the other companies the minister refused to name I think were the Jordanian company which actually have the JV with PET, hence I think they have won both of the tenders.



So watcher I am drawing breathe, and in my humble opinion I am VERY glad I'm staying in.


Tokyo

p.s. I checked and they are indeed made of steel for the moment at least

Following Tokyo clarifying your post, Please accept my apologies Watcher!

Thanks Tokyo!

Watcher, what colour are your knickers?

Hey Hemacik16 (bahouse)

One of your legendery insights perhaps on the possible JV between the Jordanian group and PET would benefit this board alot

tokyo

Tokyo

thats no problem, trying to get a check on friends and reading skills has proved to be a positive thing. Now that the steel is checked in your regions, I would re-iterate I am in and i know you are too

watcher

watcher how long have you been in? Do you agree with my post?

Morning all,
Another top-up Tokyo !!!!!!!!!!?,good post by the way.
Dexter

this one is most certainly the Final one!!!!!! only a couple of thousand

Tokyo,
So are you hoping for a drop to 80p ish today and then a rise tomorrow from about 8.30am ?.

knickers are things girls wear, I'm a boxer man myself. Go from grey to black but never brown.

Tokyo The post is as ever (not a liker) insightful and informative, you definately have got this story covered from every angle, even sometimes outpacing the whole shooting match. We, I am sure are all glad of that. You keep beavering away and I might go the whole hog and put me christmas budget in. I have been in for a while now and riveted, from the terraces "keep right on till the end of the road."

watcher ps work is calling

Tokyo

Just a slightly cautionary note. We discussed earlier whether we were down to a single tender. Looking at Dexter's quotes (902,904) al Shammai is quoted as saying 'companies will submit new offers'; also there is the reference to contracts being awarded in November and signed in December. An interpretation could be that up to 3 companies/consortia have been asked to submit new offers against a defined spec.; in parallel the oil Ministry will be finalising the contract. The preferred offer for each field will then be announced during November, the contracts handed to the successful tenderer(s) and then signed in December, with any minor amendments agreed with the bidder. That sounds a reasonable process. I suspect that, even if the Oil Ministry want to award the contract(s) to Petrel, they need to have the competitive bids on the table to avoid any repetition of the furore over the Halliburton contract(s). Petrel will now be beavering away - so it is reasonable that they should be aware that they do have to put their best bid on the table and therefore they need to be aware that they are still in a competitive position; also needing to keep their mouths shut!

Eric

Eric - That may well be true, we have no evidence to the contary, but I would assume that companies resubmitting would be the ones that were around the table discussing the tenders and agreeing on what needed to be changed (i.e cash to risk sharing), the only company we have knowledge on, that were indeed around the table with the Iraqi officals was PET.

Afraid it is nail bitting time again, PET are giving nothing away (which is probably a good sign), I for one will be checking everyday this month, until we know one way or the other.

tokyo

there is so little activity today and the majority of the
is week. I have searched high and low for anything that would give a little or further insight, but nothing. I know u come up with good info, tokyo, but i have searched everywhere to add to yours and come up with nothing thus far!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tokyo
Agree those round the table would be those selected through the previous tendering process. Probably best to assume, until we know to the contrary, that there were three bidders still in and that there will be three tenders. That seems to fit the comments made and I think is what I would do in their situation. Baseline odds therefore of 1 in 3 for two contracts, 1 in 2 for two. Still got my money on it and may just top up via a CFD!

Eric

Agreed Eric - I'm not assuming PET have won anything until they say so via an RNS.

gra1969 - I'm afraid there is very little info out there at the moment, everyone is keeping very tight lipped about these contracts, afraid it is just wait and see. I tried e-mailing PET again, but got no reply. We will just have to go on what we have available, the message for everyone is play with what you can afford to lose.

Tokyo


p.s. If you would all like to sell today, then buy back after my top up tomorrow, that would be very nice!!!(only joking for anyone who takes it seriously)

Eric: I do think you are brave to cover PET via a CFD. Still no risk no gain!

John

Tokyo, By not getting a responce, it makes me wonder when, not if, we will hear and get the RNS that we are waiting for. Normally you would have had some sort of reply? Very shy on info all round then.

John. Probably not a cfd on PET (spur of the moment comment); risk is big enough anyway. But cfd on ASC could free up some funds to increase the PET stake.

gra1969. I expect November means the end of November. Final tenders have to be prepared, submitted and evaluated. The Oil Ministry has said contract awarded November and signed December. They are working to a pre-determined schedule which is clearly geared to the elections; movement on oil contracts will demonstrate a return towards normality. The personal question which needs to be answered is whether the stake placed is big enough; the extended hiatus period should give opportunities to increase the stake.

Eric

Eric: Very sensible. John