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RTD - Why? (RTD)     

Nitefly - 15 Sep 2003 10:55

Why are we again at 10.5p bid?

It doesn't add up...

Good Results + Strong buying pre results + Christmas online buying soon = Price drop

Then again some companies that have debt for equity hanging in the balance, poor results and bankruptcy around the corner and they go up!

Why sell now at a loss?

Wont that be a kick in the teeth when we see 13.5p 14p again!

Best of luck all.

Tokyo - 10 Mar 2004 10:24 - 917 of 2406

This stock has now fallen to 20 pence, what is going on?

apple - 10 Mar 2004 19:31 - 918 of 2406

Almost everything fell today but at least RTD recovered a bit.

zscrooge - 10 Mar 2004 20:38 - 919 of 2406

MMs closing out T10s. Will soon sell back to retail for higher.

javidshaik - 11 Mar 2004 08:50 - 920 of 2406

Another day or two like this and the moving averages will cross over for short term showing a short on RTD. I am glad I sold my holdings when it got near the 28p resistance and I bought in again (only a few shares) when it had dropped at what i thought was a good entry point. I cant believe it has gone this low now.
Does anyone know what is causing such a turn around in this share?
I have made two large profits on RTD (by selling at resistance points) and now looks like I am going to have to sell without a profit. Guess its not third time lucky for me.

Javid

robstuff - 11 Mar 2004 10:54 - 921 of 2406

Tech stocks are being bashed (as are anything with large profit in price) at the moment as we follow wall street - always in their shadow(why don't we ever follow it up, we used to be over 2/3 their index, then below 2/3 now less than 1/2! - it seems there's no point investing anywhere but the U.S looking at the indexes performance. U.S in the S*** so everyone to suffer:(

Tokyo - 11 Mar 2004 14:25 - 922 of 2406

are these still good to hold for the long term? Any thoughts?
profits of 5m were xpected, and profits of 5.9 million were reported. This trading thread has gone very quiet, but hopefully holding these for a few months will pay off, then prices should be back to where they ought to be.
we all expected a short term dropp, although admittedly, not as large a one as we are seeing now

fundamentalist - any views to brighten up this thread?

Fundamentalist - 11 Mar 2004 16:02 - 923 of 2406

Hi tokyo - still holding - attached is a mail i sent a friend who has just bought in:

The markets in general are very messy today, what with Wall St plummeting
and the spanish terrorist attack, hence RTD has continued to retrace - for
those that use charting techniques it is critical that RTD holds above 19p
in the short term otherwise the next resistance is down at 14p! - ouch.

On a fundamental basis, my opinion after the results are as follows. One key
point to understand is that RTD use two different measures of EPS and this
gives a very different take on PE Ratios. The give a basic EPS and then an
adjusted EPS which excludes ammortisation and exceptional costs (and is
hence higher). Different analysts use either or both figures.

On a current share price of 19p, their EPS/PE ratios are as follows:

Current Year Basic EPS 0.5p PER 38
Forecast Next Year Basic EPS 1.06p PER 17.9
Current Year Adjusted EPS 1.4p PER 13.6
Foorecast Next Year Adjusted EPS 1.8p PER 10.6 (I expect this EPS to be
higher if the basic EPS of 1.06p is correct)

If you look at this years basic PE ratio of 38 the shares still look quite
expensive, however on a forward PER of 17.9 on basic EPS they appear cheap
(the brokers are forecasting 112% growth in basic EPS next year). If you
look at the adjusted EPS then they look exceptionally cheap!!!!

Looking forward to next year, they announced a lot of new contracts with the
results and hopefully will announce more in the coming weeks which will give
the share price a lift. Brokers are forecasting good growth, they will not
have to pay the 0.5m interest they paid this year (as they now have cash in
the bank) and the exceptional costs have now all been spent. They will
continue to write off ammortisation.

Currently in the market they have been targetted as a share that went up too
quickly, and a lot of people have been scared into selling and taking
profits as the share price has retraced. On a fundamental basis they now
look cheap, but until the dust settles from the recent sell off and current
weakness on the Nasdaq and other main indices we are unlikely to see any
gain in share price. I am continuing to hold these for the long term and am
looking to buy more once this all settles down.

As for price targets, I believe a growth stock like this should trade on a
forward Pe of 30 (NSB a similar stock trades on higher) and on that basis of
basic EPS of 1.06p gives a fair price of 31.2p - however this will only be
reached when market sentiment picks up. I expect to see the bottom very
soon, hopefully it will find support at 19p and I would then expect it to
trade between 20p and 25p over the coming months until any further
contracts/news/director buying/institutional buying is announced. The next
key date then becomes July when they will announce first half trading
figures, which will give a better guide as to what the full yr profit will
be and how trading is.

overgrowth - 11 Mar 2004 23:25 - 924 of 2406

Another excellent post Fundamentalist - many thanks for sharing your thoughts.

The whole market is sliding so much recently, I've been tempted to open some spread bet sells on the FTSE. By the time I've made up my mind I'm sure that the upward trend will resume with gusto as the "windfall" bargains are snapped up - so I reckon I'll keep a low profile for a while.

I agree that a sniff of contract news from RTD will bring the buyers flooding back. RTD is still on a lot of radars just a matter of time for us long-termers.

All the best

OG

Tokyo - 12 Mar 2004 05:29 - 925 of 2406

Fundamentalist - as always thanks for the information. I shall be waiting as you all are for that all important new contract information

Fundamentalist - 12 Mar 2004 18:36 - 926 of 2406

Good to see a blue friday again, hopefully fingers xxxed we may have hit the bottom and found a support level at 19p. Hopefully, most of the short term traders are now out and the share will gradually start to climb again - obviously the wider market conditions will still have a large impact especially how the Nasdaq performs and fears regarding terrorism. Nasdaq up 1.3% so far today which bodes well.

Douggie - 15 Mar 2004 07:44 - 927 of 2406

mornin all

deadfred - 15 Mar 2004 15:34 - 928 of 2406

time for another run they are a bargain

Douggie - 16 Mar 2004 20:58 - 929 of 2406

:o(((

Tokyo - 17 Mar 2004 10:27 - 930 of 2406

Is there really any reason why this stock should continue to fall?

Fundamentalist - 17 Mar 2004 10:32 - 931 of 2406

A weak market especially Nasdaq and current political/terrorist worries aside no. From a chartists point the current 18.75/19p level is critical to hold, it has several times but keeps being retested. As for the long term the fundamentals haven't changed.

Douggie - 17 Mar 2004 10:42 - 932 of 2406

Glad to see some comment here, BUZZ certainly gone from here, how different the felling few weeks ago 19p and rising fantastic! now seen 50% of my potential profit (equal to 1years pension) slip away gutted! now dont know which way to go, ;o((

javidshaik - 17 Mar 2004 11:31 - 933 of 2406

looking at the graph, if it goes below 18p support then i will sell mine for a loss and look to buy in again once moving averages show a golden cross and trend upward begins but only after it goes above what will then be 18p resistance.
i have bought and sold a couple of times in the last couple of months now and although i have not managed to hit the highest highs or the lowest lows, i have still made a good profit. however, i am kicking myslef for buying in too early recently and watching the share go down. had i followed the chart and not get emotionally involved then i would have made a smart decision and shorted rtd for a while.
the chart aside, for those of you that dont need the money then rtd is a good share to own. i just want my money to do the best it can all of the time and hate leaving it in a stale share.
watching eagerly for the next few days.

as i mentioned in previous posts a while back, their was a resistance at 28-30p. as it didnt manage to overcome that it headed downwards to next support. it broke through one support and if it breaks the 18p support then i would imagine it will be very quiet for a while. long termers (1-2 years or more) wont be concerened much by this recent downtrend as the 100/200 simple ma is still looking good.

Fundamentalist - 17 Mar 2004 14:25 - 934 of 2406

Still retesting the support level but seems to be holding for now, marked down earlier but now back to open price.

Douggie - 17 Mar 2004 14:29 - 935 of 2406

:o))) dont it make you feel better

Fundamentalist - 17 Mar 2004 14:35 - 936 of 2406

I'm enjoying the afternoon so far - RTd holding support, a winner at Cheltenham - what more can you ask for - a blue finish ?
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