Cheers from Mike111D on the other side.
If you have not already done so, you may want to listen to the web cast of Glyn Edwards presenting today at the Piper Jaffray Health Care Conference, in London:
http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/conflobby.zhtml?ticker=ATSMY.PK&item_id=1573805
Everything remains very much on track further to the plans articulated as a result of the company transforming deal recently announced with Novartis.
I will leave you to listen to the web cast but thought that I would just share a few things with you, some of which will not be that evident to you unless you have been following matters closely:
Aside from the conference today, a number of one on one presentations with institutional investors were undertaken and the feedback from which continues to be positive, based both upon the strength of the Novartis deal and the overall prospects for other aspects of the pipeline; for which the required funds are now firmly in place
There are no known issues of larger shareholders selling etc despite the recent pullback in the price. Given the move in the price from 15p last year, an element of profit taking was to be expected
What has been observed is that there continues to be an increase in holdings within the specialist healthcare funds both in Europe (outside of the UK) and specifically in the US. Due to the way in which these shares are being held i.e. frequently in nominee accounts and due to the UK disclosure requirements not applying, it is difficult for this to be quantified and reported on in the normal way
With circa 80m of cash available, there are certainly no plans to raise further funds and nor at this time to move ahead with the NASDAQ listing. This will be considered at a later stage should funds be sought to progress in-licensing or acquisitions
As per the presentation today, further ASA404 1 year survival data for Ovarian and Prostrate cancer will be released by October 2007
A key point to note but not communicated via RNS to date, is that on the strength of the phase II data that they have seen so far, Novartis are already now prepared to move ahead with ASA404 in Prostrate cancer prior to seeing the data in October. With prostrate cancer being a key indication with blockbuster potential ($1bn plus annualised revenues)
Novartis have already started with patient recruitment for the phase III ASA404 trials which will commence early in 2008
With AS1411, the same randomised trial model will be applied as it was with AS1404. This model is expected to de-risk the project at an earlier stage and consequently add more value at a later stage when compared with the less robust uncontrolled studies often undertaken by other companies
Despite the fact that ASM would in all likelihood have little difficulty in out licensing AS1411, they still have no intention of doing so but instead plan on leveraging the sales and marketing infrastructure that Novartis will be establishing and paying for on their behalf in the US
Trials in AML for AS1411 will be commencing shortly (over the summer) with data being reported in 2008. Trials for Renal cancer will follow on with data expected in 2009
As per the presentation today, reporting through the balance of 2007 will be focussed on ASA404
Finally, dont forget that of the $890m deal agreed with Novartis, $355m is being released in relation to development milestones, so the data being reported is key in more ways than one. Understandably, the actual milestones and associated payments remain commercially confidential and not even key industry analysts have been able to determine these and I have heard some of them try in vain to do so
So IMHO, investing in ASM remains a very sound bet, given the scale and fully funded nature of the deal with Novartis for ASA404 and the strategic significance of how this will allow ASM to press ahead with what for me is a very exciting prospect in AS1411.