Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

scuse my ignorance again! do you mean that the /$ will increase (ie go higher than 1.8090)

Sue,

What I'm saying is that the EUR/USD cross could go higher this morning and, if it does, it might pull Cable up higher with it. It doesn't yet alter the general bearish stance since 7am yesterday morning though. It's of likely interest to a) scalpers and b) bears who are short and might wish to consider the option of covering and re-entering at a higher level.

edit. Note the emphasis on could. There's nothing that says it's got to rally.

Hilary

thanks

Intresting week for cable.. At a very intresting point.. 1.8000

179.72 now, key support area ?

1.7953 IMO, It needs to be breached (i.e close below on the 15/30min)

1.7779 Next Target

I've got to say that I'm not entirely in agreement with their comments this morning. Imo, momentum of the Cable downleg looks to be exhausting and the bias could easily swing to the upside from here. Remember too that their comments and opinion were made last night when the downtrend was still holding firm.

Update Time: Hong Kong 08:00 London 01:00 New York 20:00



FX Analyst - Pro Commentary - April 15th

Schaff Tutorials - System Alerts





General Market Conditions
A mixed performance by the Dollar yesterday with a stronger than expected performance against the Japanese Yen and British Pound while the Euro and Swissie became mired in a sideways consolidation. The entire structure does have a look and feel to make this a dramatic move higher for the Dollar over the coming weeks but before getting carried away we need to assess the shorter term movement and break levels to bring us more confirmation of this scenario. Having said that we still feel the short term should see some further gains today and we shall highlight the relevant break levels below.



USDJPY
Price: 108.60
Day View
Resistance: 108.85 109.15 109.40 109.70

Support: 108.40 108.25 108.05 107.75



Bias: While 108.25-40 holds we cautiously look for follow-through to 109.70-75

Bullish: Gains were seen as expected although more aggressive reaching the 108.95 level. We tend to favor an early test at 109.10-20 but look for this to cap and generate a second, deeper correction to the 108.25 area. However, as long as we see this correction remain above 108.05 we will look for further gains towards 109.70-75 but feel this area should hold on first test.



Bearish: Further strength yesterday removes any bearish scenario for now. However we do see potential short term trades on the downside during the day. We look for an early test of 109.10-20 and feel this could generate a dip down to 108.05-25 again. Further out by late trading - or early trading tomorrow there may be a similar opportunity around 109.70-75. Only directly below 108.05 would cause us to look for a deeper pullback with supports seen at 107.45-75 and then 106.50-00.





Week View
Resistance: 109.75 110.20 111.10 112.65

Support: 108.05 107.45 106.50 105.50



Yesterday's gains above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud were much stronger than expected and do provide a positive feel to the market. Schaff Trend Cycle is now rising but is close to 100 while FXS-RSI is matching this strength having moved into overbought territory. There is one quite dramatic scenario that suggests continued strong gains although the next 2-3 days may only see a small rally before stronger gains can develop.



Bullish: The sharp rally yesterday to 108.95 has a particularly positive feel to it. However, while we do see further gains over the next 2-3 days these may well be choppy and cause some pullbacks. However, while these remains above 108.05-25 we feel the next leg after 109.75 could well be towards 111.10 and possibly as high as 112.65 which if seen should provide a further pullback.



Bearish: Continued strength has just about wrung any possible chance of a bearish scenario from the Dollar. At this point we see the 108.05-25 area as important to the immediate upside and only breach here would cause an alternative, more choppy rally. Thus below 108.00 would cause a deeper pullback to the 106.50-00 area. Only below 105.00 would take us back into consolidation.



Month View
(Updated 3rd April)

Resistance: 105.20 108.90 110.00 112.30

Support: 103.30 101.30 99.50 96.00



The rally from 105.17 reached the first major resistance at 112.30 but from there has seen an unexpected decline to new lows. We are slightly mixed at this point with monthly cycles due to find a low around this time. However, the shorter term price structure still appears to favor further lows and we see potential to 102.30-40 at least and possibly the 101.30 corrective low. However, do keep in mind the monthly cycles and any break above 105.25 and then 106.80 could generate stronger gains.





EURUSD
Price: 1.1940
Day View
Resistance: 1.1975 1.2005 1.2035 1.2055

Support: 1.1925 1.1900 1.1867 1.1825



Bias: While 1.1970-80 holds look for losses down to 1.1770

Bullish: We saw a reaction from the 1.1860-65 support yesterday that has tested the moderately strong 1.1970-80 resistance. We continue to feel this has a good chance of holding. Thus only above 1.1985 would call for a deeper move back up to the major pivot resistance at around 1.2045-65 which should cap if seen.



Bearish: Losses were seen yesterday but were contained by the support advised at 1.1860-65. However, while 1.1970-80 holds we feel the emphasis is still lower and on a break below 1.1925 we would look for the losses to extend down through yesterdays low to 1.1825 at least and we suspect to 1.1770. Below is the Double Top target around 1.1720-50.







Week View
Resistance: 1.1980 1.2050 1.2105 1.2150

Support: 1.1825 1.1730 1.1660 1.1560



While losses dipped down to the 1.1865 area yesterday the recovery has moved back to test the 4-hour Pivot Cloud. Schaff TC1 is now at zero while FXS-RSI is beginning to rally in oversold territory with a possible bullish divergence. We feel this could be the start of a larger and sustained decline which in the early stages should reach 1.1730 and we feel lower to 1.1660.



Yesterday's comments continue to apply:

Bullish: Monday's losses put paid to any thoughts of a bullish stance. We now see strong resistance first at 1.1970-80 and then again at 1.2050 and we do not foresee these being broken. Thus only a surprise break back above 1.2050 would generate any room for a bullish view. If seen it would imply a move back to 1.2220 and probably 1.2315.



Bearish: We continue to consider our underlying bearish stance looking for a decline to the Double Top target around 1.1730-50 looks to be on course and with yesterday's decline we are more inclined to a more aggressive target at 1.1660 at least and possibly even 1.1560.





Month View
(Updated 3rd April)

Resistance: 1.2325 1.2455 1.2655 1.2927

Support: 1.1720 1.1585 1.1380 1.1250



While the progress lower has been choppy we do feel that the repeated rejection around 1.2400-55 and the decline from there should now allow price to move down to the Double Top target around 1.1720-50. Watch this carefully as it may provide a pullback higher.





USDCHF
Price: 1.2995
Day View
Resistance: 1.3015 1.3050 1.3078 1.3135

Support: 1.2960 1.2945 1.2900 1.2875



Bias: While 1.2935-45 holds we look for gains through to 1.3230-55

Bullish: The sideways congestion was quite stifling yesterday but has the air of a good correction. We must allow for the risk of a dip to the 1.2935-45 area (we prefer 1.2945 as support) but from there or a direct break above 1.3015 we will look for the upside to continue. Next resistance is at the 1.3078 high and then 1.3135. However, we tend to be more bullish and believe there is room for gains to reach the 1.3220-55 area before capping.



Bearish: Although the Dollar failed to make any real gains yesterday the losses have been mild and kept within tight congestion. We do see a good risk of a further dip to 1.2935-45 but look for this to form a base. Thus only below 1.2930 would generate a deeper pullback. Next support is at 1.2875and then 1.2825.





Week View
Resistance: 1.3078 1.3190 1.3255 1.3375

Support: 1.2945 1.2825 1.2710 1.2595



The sideways consolidation allowed the 4-hour Pivot Cloud to catch up with price but we do look for this to hold. Schaff Trend Cycle has remained at 100 while FXS-RSI is now in overbought territory but has not given any selling signal. Withe upside having resumed we feel there is a good chance of seeing some strong gains over the coming 1-2 weeks with targets at 1.3220-50 initially.



Yesterday's comments continue to apply:

Bullish: We feel the upside is now confirmed and there is risk of a strong rally that could take the market by surprise. While 1.2950-60 holds the risk of direct follow-through high is strong with 1.3115-45 providing the initial barrier but we feel that there is chance we could see price extend its gains towards 1.3215, 1.3270 and later even as high as 1.3485.



Bearish: The performance of the Dollar yesterday appears to have quashed any downside stance. There is support at 1.2950 and only below here would allow the correction to extend towards 1.2840-80 but we feel that should be the maximum downside risk right now.





Month View
(Updated 3rd April)

Resistance: 1.3085 1.3235 1.3410 1.3700

Support: 1.2625 1.2515 1.2180 1.1700



The expected move higher has met with some early choppy price action but we feel this should now move onto the 1.3220-35 area this month at the very least and do see some risk of seeing gains extend to 1.3410. Watch this area since it could cause a pullback. Further resistance is around 1.3700.





GBPUSD
Price: 1.7880
Day View
Resistance: 1.7905 1.7925 1.7950 1.7985

Support: 1.7850 1.7820 1.7790 1.7755



Bias: While 1.7925-50 holds we still see downside potential to 1.7710-25

Bullish: Still little reason to get bullish with pretty good resistance offered by the 1.7925-50 area. Thu sonly above here would generate a deeper pullback that would have potential back to 1.7985 and then probably as high as 1.8075.



Bearish: Losses were once again quite aggressive and give a bearish feel to the Pound. While 1.7925-50 holds we expect further losses that should break down below the 1.7849 low and take price down to 1.7755 at least and we suspect a fuller test of 1.7710-25 where a pullback can once again occur.





Week View
Resistance: 1.7950 1.8075 1.8135 1.8200

Support: 1.7820 1.7725 1.7660 1.7430



Once again strong losses were seen below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud which fit in with our underlying bearish stance. Schaff Trend Cycle remained at zero while FXS-RSI dipped into oversold territory. We continue to prefer to retain our bearish stance with the structure looking potentially quite bearish and could generate some further dramatic losses over the next week or two.



Bullish: It is really difficult to get bullish at this point. In fact there is a risk that 1.7920-50 could well contain any strength. However, should 1.7950-60 get penetrated it would allow a pullback as far as 1.8075 and only above this higher level permits the pullback to reach 1.8135 at least.



Bearish: Yesterday's losses were again much stronger than expected and we do see a potentially very bearish scenario. For now we look for 1.7925-50 to hold and look for losses to take us down to 1.7710-50 by tomorrow. However, while 1.7920 holds we feel there can be further losses over the course of next week that should reach 1.7630-60 and if that breaks then look for 1.7430.



Month View
(Updated 3rd April)

Resistance: 1.8875 1.9025 1.9140 1.9305

Support: 1.8000 1.7820 1.7660 1.7370



The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and should easily reach the 1.7820 initial target and we feel that while this may cause a brief reaction higher the downside is still preferred following that test. Further support is found at 1.7660.

I agree Hill,

Looks like the 1.7779 target I mentioned above was hit at 4.30am. Looks like we are seeing some profit taking at the moment. I think it will continue all day.

Looking above they dont really know whats going on or when..

IMO A break above 1.7984 (Low of the 15min closing above) will signal some further gains today of around 200pips. A break bellow 1.7774 will continue our sell off of the pound..

I'm a bit shocked by the movement on the Cable this morning. 150 up then over 200 down in a morning makes it good for the scalpers but difficult for the trend seekers and riders.

For, I think, the first time in about 6 months my strategy has failed me this morning and I've succeeded in turning a big profit from 7am into a bigger loss. C'est la vie.

know what you mean gal,
just looked at a long at 177.69,
on being oversold, and missed that
too chicken now, but expect to see 178.50ish today,
couple of small bounces off 177.60.....

Phily data to come out soon that may jump start us, like it did last month.

Cable showing a nice little uptick just now.
Any legs?

I'm long and adding, hodgins. Just about clawed back my loss from yesterday too.

Im also long from 925

Im out for -3

"gain lock" hit for +20
Rentry?

Chill pill time, boys. I'm staying long.

:o)

may need to hold your hand soon gal,
bit scared of these faregroung rides

Beebs,

You should know by now ...... this is a Woman's World. Ever considered getting a job pushing old grannies round a nursing home in their bath chairs?

:o)