Why are we again at 10.5p bid?

It doesn't add up...

Good Results + Strong buying pre results + Christmas online buying soon = Price drop

Then again some companies that have debt for equity hanging in the balance, poor results and bankruptcy around the corner and they go up!

Why sell now at a loss?

Wont that be a kick in the teeth when we see 13.5p 14p again!

Best of luck all.

Hi tokyo - still holding - attached is a mail i sent a friend who has just bought in:

The markets in general are very messy today, what with Wall St plummeting
and the spanish terrorist attack, hence RTD has continued to retrace - for
those that use charting techniques it is critical that RTD holds above 19p
in the short term otherwise the next resistance is down at 14p! - ouch.

On a fundamental basis, my opinion after the results are as follows. One key
point to understand is that RTD use two different measures of EPS and this
gives a very different take on PE Ratios. The give a basic EPS and then an
adjusted EPS which excludes ammortisation and exceptional costs (and is
hence higher). Different analysts use either or both figures.

On a current share price of 19p, their EPS/PE ratios are as follows:

Current Year Basic EPS 0.5p PER 38
Forecast Next Year Basic EPS 1.06p PER 17.9
Current Year Adjusted EPS 1.4p PER 13.6
Foorecast Next Year Adjusted EPS 1.8p PER 10.6 (I expect this EPS to be
higher if the basic EPS of 1.06p is correct)

If you look at this years basic PE ratio of 38 the shares still look quite
expensive, however on a forward PER of 17.9 on basic EPS they appear cheap
(the brokers are forecasting 112% growth in basic EPS next year). If you
look at the adjusted EPS then they look exceptionally cheap!!!!

Looking forward to next year, they announced a lot of new contracts with the
results and hopefully will announce more in the coming weeks which will give
the share price a lift. Brokers are forecasting good growth, they will not
have to pay the 0.5m interest they paid this year (as they now have cash in
the bank) and the exceptional costs have now all been spent. They will
continue to write off ammortisation.

Currently in the market they have been targetted as a share that went up too
quickly, and a lot of people have been scared into selling and taking
profits as the share price has retraced. On a fundamental basis they now
look cheap, but until the dust settles from the recent sell off and current
weakness on the Nasdaq and other main indices we are unlikely to see any
gain in share price. I am continuing to hold these for the long term and am
looking to buy more once this all settles down.

As for price targets, I believe a growth stock like this should trade on a
forward Pe of 30 (NSB a similar stock trades on higher) and on that basis of
basic EPS of 1.06p gives a fair price of 31.2p - however this will only be
reached when market sentiment picks up. I expect to see the bottom very
soon, hopefully it will find support at 19p and I would then expect it to
trade between 20p and 25p over the coming months until any further
contracts/news/director buying/institutional buying is announced. The next
key date then becomes July when they will announce first half trading
figures, which will give a better guide as to what the full yr profit will
be and how trading is.

Another excellent post Fundamentalist - many thanks for sharing your thoughts.

The whole market is sliding so much recently, I've been tempted to open some spread bet sells on the FTSE. By the time I've made up my mind I'm sure that the upward trend will resume with gusto as the "windfall" bargains are snapped up - so I reckon I'll keep a low profile for a while.

I agree that a sniff of contract news from RTD will bring the buyers flooding back. RTD is still on a lot of radars just a matter of time for us long-termers.

All the best

OG

Fundamentalist - as always thanks for the information. I shall be waiting as you all are for that all important new contract information

Good to see a blue friday again, hopefully fingers xxxed we may have hit the bottom and found a support level at 19p. Hopefully, most of the short term traders are now out and the share will gradually start to climb again - obviously the wider market conditions will still have a large impact especially how the Nasdaq performs and fears regarding terrorism. Nasdaq up 1.3% so far today which bodes well.

mornin all

time for another run they are a bargain

:o(((

Is there really any reason why this stock should continue to fall?

A weak market especially Nasdaq and current political/terrorist worries aside no. From a chartists point the current 18.75/19p level is critical to hold, it has several times but keeps being retested. As for the long term the fundamentals haven't changed.

Glad to see some comment here, BUZZ certainly gone from here, how different the felling few weeks ago 19p and rising fantastic! now seen 50% of my potential profit (equal to 1years pension) slip away gutted! now dont know which way to go, ;o((

looking at the graph, if it goes below 18p support then i will sell mine for a loss and look to buy in again once moving averages show a golden cross and trend upward begins but only after it goes above what will then be 18p resistance.
i have bought and sold a couple of times in the last couple of months now and although i have not managed to hit the highest highs or the lowest lows, i have still made a good profit. however, i am kicking myslef for buying in too early recently and watching the share go down. had i followed the chart and not get emotionally involved then i would have made a smart decision and shorted rtd for a while.
the chart aside, for those of you that dont need the money then rtd is a good share to own. i just want my money to do the best it can all of the time and hate leaving it in a stale share.
watching eagerly for the next few days.

as i mentioned in previous posts a while back, their was a resistance at 28-30p. as it didnt manage to overcome that it headed downwards to next support. it broke through one support and if it breaks the 18p support then i would imagine it will be very quiet for a while. long termers (1-2 years or more) wont be concerened much by this recent downtrend as the 100/200 simple ma is still looking good.

Still retesting the support level but seems to be holding for now, marked down earlier but now back to open price.

:o))) dont it make you feel better

I'm enjoying the afternoon so far - RTd holding support, a winner at Cheltenham - what more can you ask for - a blue finish ?

Douggie - And now we've gone blue for the day - and Azertyuiop beat Moscow flier - it just keeps getting better lol

glad to see this thread spark back up again, I'm still holding all my shares and cringe when I look at the present price, but the fundamentals of this company are still strong, and there is no reason why the stock price should become the same in the future, althoug it will be a long journey for us long term holders, one we shall have to be strong enough to endure, if we want to see any real large profits.

good luck to all holders

Njoy rest of your day Fundamentalist great to hear good news I'll raise a glass to you later , may your good fortune continue specialy here,beautiful BLUE colour ;o))))

The frequent trader gives RTD a little mention -


"Elsewhere Retail Decisions has slumped from its highs - looks like 18p should be a floor for the shares and they look undervalued at this sort of level."

p,s, Fundamentalist - nice to read about your little win

The candlestick chart is looking interesting again:



The "hammer" (a classic reversal symbol) indicated by today's trading shows solid support at 18.5p and a bullish close at the top of the intra-day trading range. If all goes according to plan with the theory (and provided there is no markdown based on general market sentiment) we should see blue days tomorrow and Friday.

Anyone trading will have seen this and closed their shorts and will be looking to buy back in again or move on. The budget held no nasty surprises for business today, so the markets should be back in bouyant mood (barring any more terrorist attacks). It's starting to appear from the resiliance of FTSE shares that we're looking at the end of a temporary consolidation phase - the overall market trend is still bullish and this should become evident again in the next couple of weeks.

Looking at the chart on the 9th, 10th and 11th we saw a fall on moderate volume with the price pulling back from its daily lows, however on the start of each new trading day, the price was marked down to the previous day's low forcing it down even quicker than would normally be expected. This suggests that the subsequent rebound could be just as quick, stablising at 22p as the next step up. Further rises from here I guess will be news driven.

There have been a lot of "pump and dump" merchants buying and selling in the past few weeks - it looks as though the dust has started to settle now.

Interesting also, the solid buying on the 12th - why does RTD generally seem to do so well on Fridays ?

All the best

OG

mornin all... :o))))