Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Extract from todays RBS FX Strategy Email - GBP/USD was about 203.45 when I received it :

"Short GBP USD may well provide the best pro-USD trade from an interday perspective, with yesterday's EUR GBP sell-off (and subsequent cable lag) suggesting that price is due a catch-up move today. Thus, we see potential for price to soften towards the 2.0190 early December reaction low (also marks the minimum 23.6% retracement of the November 2005 - November 2007 advance)."

I've doubled up on the grounds that - so far - it's holding. Stops in at 200 and order to open short for if it fails and falls - 'cos it's got a long way to go.

SAS trading for those in the least bit tempted - "Who Dares Wins - But Shrugs Shoulders When It Loses" :)

Foale,

I was far from been critical and I think if you read my post again there was a considerable amount of self-mockery!! I was merely curious as to what had prompted a long position, always willing to learn.

I do post my own trades (now and again) but usually when I do I find they make me look a tw*t. I can live with that though.

FWIW I am currently short Euro/Yen from 16360, which I should have closed about 10 mins ago, but was distracted by the phone :(

I am sticking to my plan here. Only demo trading now but I have managed to not even feel like trying to catch a falling knife on cable and eurusd.
I am going to wait and wait and wait until it settles down and let someone else establish the trend and then I shall commit my paper funds.

my open paper trades are short gbpjpy 229.36 from the 11th, short eurjpy 164.63 from the 11th, short usdjpy 112.32 from yesterday and short eurchf 1.6701. I am not in a hurry on any of these trades and have wide stops.
Only regret is not banking some of the gbpjpy on it's trip down to 224.75 after the rate decision.

Interestingly gbpjpy did not fall yesterday as much as I thought it would in reaction to uk equities and once again this morning did not get dragged down much by uk equities or in sympathy with cable. I do not know what to make of this.

I'm still staring at charts and indicators here trying to find that piece of magic. I'm starting to feel like i'm getting somewhere. Simple things only ever trade with the trend, identify if it's a trending or choppy market - they are easy to say but somehow it's taken a while for me to take them on board. 5 years of bad habits on stocks take some getting rid of.

There's a slew of US data out at 13:30 and a more cautious trader would be getting out around about now. I'm sticking my neck out and am prepared to get it chopped off. Have to go out around 13:45 so I'll see what the Yanks have got to say before deciding whether to risk it for a biscuit and leave them open or (if I took any notice of those more wiser and disciplined than I) take/lose whatever is on the plate at that stage.

Fwiw I also felt that cable was a long when I first looked in this morning, even after it had made that early high just shy of 2.0450 I felt it could carry on up.

By 8am though the trend had definitely been set as a downer. 5- and 15-minute ma\'s were crossing down and the MACD was heading down through the zero line.

In the bigger picture, today isn't looking very good for cables bulls. We could be witnessing the start of a pullback here which could take 6 months or a year or even longer to evolve. The key has got to be where the retest of the $2.11 high ends up in a month or two's time.

Hmmmmmmmm
Sensible thing to do would be to close out here and take a few pips. Nobody ever described me as sensible, in fact I'd take it as a personal insult if they did :)

So, plonker that I am, I'm leaving my positions open with stops moved up to just below the recent low. Wish me luck - 'cos that's what it'll be if I get away with it. The 45/50 has been breached and so I should be looking for shorts into strength but hey, nothing ventured Rodders.

I've got a short to open at the stop level so maybe I can retrieve some pips if it bombs.

Well, I hung onto my eur/jpy short gamely and in fact added at 86, jsut closed for +30 but can't but help feel there was more mileage in it. Good luck mg :)

Just gone long Cable (catching falling knives springs to mind) based on low of the day and a daily chart fib retracement level, which provided support earlier today. Tight stop.

Had a good week, but could have made 3 or 4 times what I did - if only I'd ....... (insert your choice of suitable phrase here).

Going to finish now with a smile on my face.

edit, will try to make those extra points next week........

Well, I should give myself quite a good slapping; having been distracted this morning by the phone and missed a good opportunity to close a profitable trade, the same bloody thing has happened this afternoon. My Fib support didn't do very well, however this indicator is never totally accurate, so added to my long at 196 and subsequnetly missed fluffed the chance to close somewhere in the 235-240 region. Stops at 181, I feel I may have missed the boat :(

Well, that didn't work !!
Just got back in to see my 2 longs stopped out and a feeble few points on the short one. I might as well leave that one open for a bit to see where it ends up - net loss for the day is now -40 +55 -30 -30 = -45 with a few pips in compensation - oops, no that's a loser as well as I type. I've got a stop in at 20250 so maximum loss will be -77 :(((

There's always next week.

Have a good weekend everyone. And a Merry Christmas and New Year 'cos I'll probably return to just lurking next week.

Just popped in to say that I've now closed that short so I'm clean over the weekend. That gave me 40 so the net loss (after an up and down day) was -5. Not bad under the circumstances - and it's given me some interesting ideas.

Happy Holidays

Well, I was right about missing the boat, had the opportunity to close both out for + pips but hung on stubbornly waiting for a better exit and eventually stopped out for -45 and -15, stupid and quite frustrating.

Have a nice weekend all.

I had one big winner on Monday then smaller ones and a couple of small losses, overall +185 or so on the week. A lot better than I have been doing :-)

From my post yesterday.

Extract from todays RBS FX Strategy Email - GBP/USD was about 203.45 when I received it :

"Short GBP USD may well provide the best pro-USD trade from an interday perspective, with yesterday's EUR GBP sell-off (and subsequent cable lag) suggesting that price is due a catch-up move today. Thus, we see potential for price to soften towards the 2.0190 early December reaction low (also marks the minimum 23.6% retracement of the November 2005 - November 2007 advance)."



Anyone want me to post these comments daily , have been receiving them (for work purposes) for a couple of years and the track record has been pretty impressive.

Very much a down week for me, Friday was good but did not make up for the rest of the week.

Dill that would be good.

EUR USD - The outlook is negative; with last weeks close beneath the 1.4535 neckline provoking relatively sharp losses towards the intermediate 1.4355 objective. Resistance 1.4450/75 (max. 1.4535) should now cap any corrective intraday rallies, with an extension of the downtrend through 1.4355 targeting the 1.4165/1.3975 retracement zone (50/61.8% of the August November 2007 rally).

Currently 1.4375

Thanks Dil, anything on cable?