Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

I had one big winner on Monday then smaller ones and a couple of small losses, overall +185 or so on the week. A lot better than I have been doing :-)

From my post yesterday.

Extract from todays RBS FX Strategy Email - GBP/USD was about 203.45 when I received it :

"Short GBP USD may well provide the best pro-USD trade from an interday perspective, with yesterday's EUR GBP sell-off (and subsequent cable lag) suggesting that price is due a catch-up move today. Thus, we see potential for price to soften towards the 2.0190 early December reaction low (also marks the minimum 23.6% retracement of the November 2005 - November 2007 advance)."



Anyone want me to post these comments daily , have been receiving them (for work purposes) for a couple of years and the track record has been pretty impressive.

Very much a down week for me, Friday was good but did not make up for the rest of the week.

Dill that would be good.

EUR USD - The outlook is negative; with last weeks close beneath the 1.4535 neckline provoking relatively sharp losses towards the intermediate 1.4355 objective. Resistance 1.4450/75 (max. 1.4535) should now cap any corrective intraday rallies, with an extension of the downtrend through 1.4355 targeting the 1.4165/1.3975 retracement zone (50/61.8% of the August November 2007 rally).

Currently 1.4375

Thanks Dil, anything on cable?

I'm a bit confused by my cable charts atm.

I've drawn a line on the daily charts from the lows of March 2006 passing up through the low of 17th August 2007.

That rising support line on Friday seemed to be around 2.0250 and it appeared to have been broken suggesting bearishness in the months ahead.

That line, however, regenerates itself on all of the other timeframes of my charts and on timeframes of 30-minutes and less it appears to currently be at 2.0110, well over 1 cent lower than on my other charts.

Whereas on Friday I thought that the uptrend support had been broken, I'm not really sure if that's the case this morning. I don't understand how the charts can say two different things.

Hiliconfuscious
FWIW I also had 20250 as a key support and believe it has now been breached. I also have 20110 from another chart using the Dailies. I suppose we are about to see if that one gets breached as well - 'cos it's playing out a test at the moment.

I posted the other day that I thought there was support below 20250 at around 20050 but I now think that 20110 is the correct level to test 'cos I have it as the bottom of the mid-point down channel from early November. The bottom of the full down channel - top 9/11/07 and bottom 16/11/07 I have at around 19800.

All a bit tricky but if it goes then I'll mainly be looking to short down to 19800.

Hilary, I'm not sure I entirely understand your post but are you saying that when you draw the trendline on the daily and then switch to timeframes of the 30m and less the trendline appears to be in the wrong place ?

Daily FX does this all the time. The problem seemed to start about 2 weeks ago but may have been longer. I just became aware I couldn't trust it.

aplogies if i've misunderstood. I moved onto Metatrader since I became aware of the problem. But I think you have Sharescope ?

That's exactly what I'm saying, CC. It's on MetaTrader that it does it. I chopped in my Sharescope a few years ago when they introduced setsmm and I all but stopped trading stocks.

It might have something to do with them taking their daily close at midnight whereas others take their close at 10pm. As a result they have 6 daily candlesticks each week instead of 5.

If I connect the march lows of 2006 to the august 2007 then it goes through 2.0250 as you suggest

If I connect the march lows of 2007 to aug 2007 then I get 2.0125 ish which is what is supplying support at the moment I guess

Incidentally, my hourlies for EUR/JPY suggest that 162.34 might be the low of the downleg since last Wednesday evening.

The 20145 has triggered and I've moved my stop up to entry.

Sorry Seymour been in meetings all morning.

They highlight normally the best trade but comment on all the majors. I'll foward it to your MAM email.

Sent 2 mails to your MAM account.

Thanks Dil, got it & replied, just back from lunch.

I finally close the long from 45 for 70 - not sure if it might turn around here.

Is the carry trade relationship breaking down with the huge amounts of liquidity being pumped into the system?
Are the central banks being conned and instead of borrowing on the carry trade the borrowing is taking place in the home currency?

Attached chart shows gbpjpy to ukx relationship has become odd indeed since late November. gbpjpy has hardly changed depsite a big move both up and down on ftse.




As you can guess I shorted gbpjpy when the ftse index was up at about 240 yet I'm only about 50pips up. Wondering what I should do as if the index starts moving up I could lose the 50pips I do have.

EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are starting an upleg on the 1-hour chart imo. I wouldn't want to be short (I've been fillinmemanolos long since yesterday), but wdik?

Btw, regarding the correlation between the geppy carry and the FTSE, a peek back at the weeklies to 2000 will show geppy enjoying a straight ride up since October 2000 whereas the FTSE was in decline from then and only started its recovery when Dubbya went into Iraq.

The third side of the triangle is represented by fixed income securities (bonds) which is where the carry trade money was landing between 2000 and 2003. I'd suggest that the strength in equity markets despite the weakness in sterling since the MPC cut in interest rates a few weeks ago has been as a result of money flowing out of the bond markets.

Hilary,
If you want to get rid of the Sunday ticks on Metatrader you need to download metatrader from a broker where they have the clock set to gmt +2 hours as then the Sunday ticks go into the Monday bar.

FXDD offer gmt+3 hours so there are no Sunday bars but i'm not sure what knock-on problems this may cause