overgrowth
- 13 May 2005 16:36
Retail Decisions are
market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They
produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally,
though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers
both in the UK and US.
They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be
a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this
"forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout
2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and
Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of
millions of shares in RTD !
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Shares Magazine had
a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is
about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution".
It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.
Here's what Shares
had to say:
"Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing
credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit
and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but
also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in
your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.
Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime.
Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump
is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities
seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains
concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already
has fantastic experience and technology.
The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that
it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer,
T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner
of Macy's and Bloomingdales.
Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business
in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low
single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
Retail Decisions have
continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz.
fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices
and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams
from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through.
In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over
their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company
is doing.
The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software
is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success
in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is
being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real
gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.
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skyhigh
- 09 Jun 2005 10:04
- 93 of 1009
Good info... but now lets see the overgrowth in the SP! Please!
pachandl
- 09 Jun 2005 11:35
- 95 of 1009
O/G - agreed. However it is often hard for a re-rating to occur at this time of year. Certainly I can see PIs pushing the price up on news, agm etc but a true re-rating that takes account of future revenue growth over the next 3 years may not happen until after summer.
Fundamentalist
- 09 Jun 2005 17:17
- 97 of 1009
OG
If you go to the threads at the top of the investors room page you will find moneyam letting you have level 2 free for a week!! i spot someone looking to capitalise on advfns outage yesterday! :-)
Fred1new
- 09 Jun 2005 17:32
- 98 of 1009
Fundy, was that your buy at 14.31 of 400,000? Are you dribbling you profits from February back in. I think the level 2 free is demo only or I cocked it up. But even the demo is far to fast for me.
I like making a decision and then doing nothing.
Fundamentalist
- 09 Jun 2005 17:35
- 99 of 1009
Fred
its definitely 1 week free trial - you must have cocked it up :-)
not my 400k im afraid - still on the sidelines.
Redid my figures the other night having re-read the annual report - planning to be back in before half yr results
edit: Fred - if you tried to access after hours you will just get the demo - it'll only be live in trading hours (if like the last time they had a free trial)
Fred1new
- 09 Jun 2005 17:54
- 100 of 1009
Fundy, As usual you are picking up all my mistakes and faults. Found my way in to correct page, only a couple of hours to late. I will have another look to-morrow.
However, I think you could be useful to me. My kids are beginning to feel I shouldn't be let out without a minder. But my guess your charges would be too much for me.
Anyway, I think RTD is looking positive, but I would like a bit more volume. But I have made decision to hold onto what I have.
Have a nice evening.
Douggie
- 09 Jun 2005 18:44
- 101 of 1009
what chance a tic up early tomorow....?????????????????????..;o\
Douggie
- 10 Jun 2005 09:10
- 103 of 1009
nil tic up so far!!!!!......;o/
mournin all ;-\
m0dulus
- 10 Jun 2005 11:57
- 105 of 1009
Any reason for the slowness in RTD
m0dulus
- 10 Jun 2005 12:20
- 107 of 1009
OG
u think in short term we can see it move into the 30's but whats the long term scenerio and in what period of time do u think it can be achieved.
Fundamentalist
- 10 Jun 2005 12:51
- 109 of 1009
OG
Based on a Pe of 20, to achieve your forecasts the company will need to generate the following post tax profits ( i have used post acc changes profit):
End 2005: 7.25m
End 2006: 15m
End 2008: 22.25m-30m
Last yr results were turnover of 32m with profits of 4.1m (was 3.1m prior to acc changes)
Personally think your forecasts are on the optimistic side, though as we all know, calculating how much the growth in internet (and fraud) transactions will add to growth in revenue/profits is difficult to calculate and key to the forward valuation and share price of the company
Fundamentalist
- 10 Jun 2005 13:06
- 111 of 1009
OG
no probs - helps me to clarify what i and others think is achievable. As you know im still looking to get back in, struggling to understand the current price activity.
As you say, i have worked on a fixed pe 0f 20, though if as you say they are delivery 50%-100% profit increases then they would justify a higher pe rating.
Just notice my figures are slightly overstated - should be:
2005: 7.25m
2006: 14.5m
2008: 21.75 - 29m
Fred1new
- 10 Jun 2005 13:28
- 112 of 1009
9/10/2005 is seems a long way a way. But I have just had a look at atticipated EPS from comdirect and Sharescope and Barclays. They seem to be giving slightly lower figures but I don't think they are building in the effects of Macy's and Bloomingdale's, advances in fuel card returns, or Voca and Mi-Pay.
My "guesses" or are they "hopes" are similar to overgrowth.