bangersmam
- 07 Dec 2005 11:34
bangersmam
- 05 May 2006 09:30
- 93 of 173
The latest freebie from MW, which im sure he wont mind me posting here.
Catching the Cash
There has been nothing but good news from Osmetech (OMH) this year, yet the shares are languishing at 22.5p to 23.5p, way down from the 33.5p they touched in January. Though I hate to argue with the market, that fall looks foolish.
The price has not been helped by the clumsy surprise (certainly to the company) sale of 21m shares at 20p as Motorola simply chucked stock onto the market to clear the books (see my archives Money Down The Drain January 26). Nor has it been helped by the warning repeated with the March 21 figures that further funding would be required later this year to finance the launch of new products.
The share dump will not happen again. Motorola was simply recovering a little cash after effectively giving Clinical Micro Sensors (CMS) away in another of the shrewd cut-price purchases engineered by Osmo chief executive James White. The sale was executed, some say badly, by former broker Evolution. ABN Amro is now in place as a bright new broker with US connections (Osmos business is now firmly in the US).
The funding? This is intriguing. There have been some shrewd posts on the ADVFN bulletin board. These reason that the companys major institutional shareholders would not want more shares issued at current prices, effectively them, and might be keen to support a placing, perhaps at more than the current level.
Gartmore has over 18% of Osmo, and Schroders more than 14%. It seems that they are heavily committed to the story, and there is speculation that they might, indeed, be ready to support the business at a premium. There is also the possibility that Osmo could raise cash by selling some of the intellectual property which came in with CMS last summer. Remember, Motorola effectively acquired it for $280m in 2000, then spent $100m on research and development. Such a business ought to have stacks of value tucked away.
And if it cannot sell something, maybe Osmo could generate some cash by bringing in a partner somewhere.
All of this is sheer speculation, of course, but it does reinforce the notion that the Osmo management is acutely aware of the share price and reluctant to countenance further dilution, if at all possible.
When will money be raised? It is not clear. Will it be raised at this price? Probably not. Maybe the new broker can help here. An updated research report would help.
Bears and short sellers please note we are not dealing here with a company which makes money. It reported pre-tax losses of 5.4m for the eight months to December 31, and is forecast to lose around 10m for 2006. So there is ample room for non-believers to bash away, and it will take until 2008 before decent profits emerge.
That does not mean there is not significant value in the company as it stands. Take the critical care division, the bit built around the OPTI blood gas analysis business. That makes machines, and sells consumables for those machines. It is growing fast, with sales of 5.58m (up 78%) in the eight months to December 31. They are probably running close to 10m in the current year. Comparable businesses in the US have sold for between 2.8 and five times revenues. So the critical care division, which would be profitable if it could be stripped out of Osmo, is worth the current whole company market capitalisation of 30m on its own.
Critical care is going great guns, selling more machines which lead to more consumables sales. It sold perhaps 1,000 machines into the veterinary market last year, thanks to a link with veterinary distribution giant IDEXX, and could sell more this year. Each veterinary machine probably uses three consumables a day, against one a day in hospitals.
The human business specialises in near-patient testing (testing in the hospital or clinic, instead of taking samples to be not sent away for processing) and there are two new product launches set to help deliver growth this year the OPTI R multi-use consumable for higher usage customers, and OPTI LION, a low cost electrolyte only instrument. So OPTI looks good and growing.
The real excitement, however, lies with the molecular diagnostics division, for which there is nothing in the share price if you accept OPTI is worth 30m. This bears the research and development costs (there are 50 or 60 people working on the new P450 test alone), but has taken Osmo into an exciting and fast-growing niche market which could be very valuable.
Again, the bears could suggest that since Osmo picked up the businesses which largely comprise this vision for practically nothing, they are worth nothing. But they have had maybe half a billion dollars of research and development pumped into them and since Osmo bought in, have succeeded in getting FDA approval for products.
In January, Osmo won FDA approval for a test to detect cystic fibrosis, and for the e-Sensor DNA Detection machine which runs that test. The test produced results which achieved remarkable success. There are around one million tests for cystic fibrosis in the US each year, mostly carried out by qualified technicians on $100,000 machines in large central laboratories to which the samples are sent. They are charged at perhaps $400 or more a time.
The Osmo e-Sensor will go to hospitals which will be able to test in-house. Machines will start being installed in the first half of this year. Perhaps ten or twelve will be placed in 2006 running tests, with revenues generated by the consumables.
But the e-Sensor will not be confined to the cystic fibrosis tests, which are likely to be given to all childbearing couples. It can accommodate a variety of relatively complex molecular tests, analysing multiple genetic information, able to detect many different targets at once. There is intellectual property protected by over 70 international patents.
The next e-Sensor test for which Osmo is seeking FDA approval will be the Cytochrome P450 (CYP 450) pharmacogenomics assay. This should yield valuable information on drug metabolism, basically determining how individuals will react to different drugs, thus helping determine safety and dosage. That opens the way to personalised drugs a major advance.
Roche has such a test which sells at $800 a time. Hopefully, the Osmo version will win FDA approval next year. It should handle three major separate tests, with the first directed at Warfarin, which treats blood clotting, and is used by perhaps 20m people each year. Thousands suffer an adverse reaction each year.
Alongside producing these specific consumables for the e-Sensor, Osmo is talking to pharma companies who wish to run their tests on the machine. Others have the assays, but lack a suitable instrument.
In addition, Osmo expects in June to launch the OPTI GENE system, a machine for detecting DNA and RNA targets with simple assays. This uses technology developed by an earlier acquisition company, Molecular Sensing. It should provide results within 30 to 45 minutes using a single patient disposable cartridge. Once again, it is designed for near-patient testing in medium to smaller hospitals. The initial launch will take in thrombophilia assays.
In May, the company should also launch the OPTI TUBE. These are specially designed plastic tubes to replace the glass tubes now used by pharma giant Roche. There are some 50m glass tubes sold each year. The OPTI alternative costs a fraction of the Roche price, and is much safer. Roche has been granted a non-exclusive licence to make and sell it.
There is, then, a raft of new products about to come onstream. They range from the low-tech, low-cost but high volume items like OPTI TUBE to highly sophisticated machines and assays. These are all, arguably, in the share price for nothing.
If they take off, they could be worth a multiple of the current share price. But it will take a year or two for them to win a decent market share, and they will require financing along the way.
Tiny Osmo bought these much bigger opportunities for a song. Raising the full working capital required to get them to market would have been quite a stretch at the time. Now they are reaching the market, raising extra cash for the final push looks less daunting.
Clearly there are risks. There is an exciting list of new products with great potential, but they are not yet selling. They have not penetrated the market. The machines might well be given away so that Osmo can establish them in place, and then earn from high margin consumables.
Such a business might appear too complex and foreign to many UK investors. The research and development is taking place in the US, the main initial market, though there are links in the UK and Europe.
Clearly Osmo has some UK believers ready to back the business to take it to the next stage. New broker ABN Amro might be better able than Evolution to exploit market interest in America, where such companies are better understood.
As the products start to penetrate the market, and as worries about future funding are eliminated, the shares could advance sharply. But, once again, they are not without risk.
bangersmam
- 26 May 2006 15:29
- 95 of 173
USS increased their position
Osmetech PLC
26 May 2006
Osmetech plc ('Osmetech' or 'the Company')
The Company has been notified that following the acquisition of 720,000 ordinary
shares, Universities Superannuation Scheme Limited now has an interest in
5,500,000 Osmetech ordinary shares. The shares are registered under Chase
Nominees Ltd (USS).
The total holding represents approximately 4.17 per cent of the Company's issued
ordinary share capital.
hobbst
- 16 Jun 2006 16:12
- 97 of 173
Looks as if the three blind mice have in fact got perfect eyesight.
Share price down to a lowly 18.5p after news of yet another fund raising exercise - diluting existing shareholdings and raising the number of shares in issue by over 50%.
Yuk.
astonvilla
- 19 Jun 2006 09:01
- 98 of 173
well the rampers have shown they lack any sort of judgement. RAMP RAMP here and on competitors site. If anyone dared to question their so called wisdom they were banned from posting. This episode shows what idiots they are. I continue to hold.
bmw325
- 26 Jun 2006 22:16
- 99 of 173
Back to 30p+ very soon...IMHO.
Minder
- 28 Jun 2006 15:55
- 101 of 173
Can you keep that table up to date please!
DITCHPIG
- 29 Jun 2006 17:08
- 103 of 173
after todays buying i suspect it will be out of date again very very soon!
ptholden
- 30 Jun 2006 16:48
- 105 of 173
Rated as a BUY in IC this week by the way, (or Good Value) can't remember which.
bangersmam
- 03 Jul 2006 08:56
- 106 of 173
From the IC
23 June 2006
Osmetech in cash call
Osmetech shares fell 4 per cent after the company announced that it's raising 12.8m at 18p, an increase of 53.9 per cent in its share capital. The new funds will provide working capital for the company, which admitted that without the fund-raising it would be "unable to trade much beyond August 2006". Management says that it needs the cash to help fund new product launches, and improve its negotiating position in out-licensing opportunities.
Osmetech stated at its full-year results in March that it would need to raise funds. So, at 18p, the shares remain good value. BUY
bangersmam
- 10 Jul 2006 07:31
- 110 of 173
Trading Statement
RNS Number:9033F
Osmetech PLC
10 July 2006
Osmetech plc - Trading Update
Osmetech plc, the international healthcare diagnostics group will provide the
following update during its Extraordinary General Meeting at 11:00am today:
During the first six months of 2006, the Group has continued to build on the
strong sales growth achieved in 2005. Sales for the 6 month period ended 30 June
2006 are 36% ahead of the corresponding period in 2005.
The majority of sales relate to the Critical Care division where sales exceeded
$8.6m, up by 34% on the corresponding period in 2005, with sales increasing in
both human and veterinary markets.
As planned, in the first half of the year, Osmetech's Molecular Diagnostics
Division launched its FDA approved eSensor Cystic Fibrosis Carrier Detection
test and eSensor 4800 DNA Detection instrument and OPTI TUBE product for use in
the Roche LightCycler as a cost-effective and safe alternative to the Roche
glass capillaries. Our OPTI GENE instrument and proprietary consumable system
for the rapid detection of DNA and RNA targets will be launched with
thrombophilia assays at the American Association of Clinical Chemists (AACC)
Conference in Chicago later this month.
We are confident of further sales growth for the Group in the second half of the
year. We expect our Critical Care division to report a record sales performance
during the next six month period with a growing contribution from our new OPTI
LION and OPTI R instruments and further strong sales growth of the VetStat
product by our distribution partner, IDEXX, in the veterinary market. We also
expect to report early commercial success with our new molecular diagnostics
products as we start to build a significant presence in this rapidly growing
market.
Ends


DITCHPIG
- 21 Jul 2006 10:33
- 111 of 173
Osmetech says US biotech fund Efficacy holds almost 9 pct of co
LONDON (AFX) - Diagnostics company Osmetech PLC said the Efficacy Biotech
Fund of California-based Efficacy Capital Ltd now owns 18 mln shares or 8.876
pct of the company.
newsdesk@afxnews.com
ak
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