Tad:
Made less than 6 figures today. Moribund.

Tad looks to have fallen out of a (relatively) small triangle and is heading back to lower support. Nothing is settled until a close outside the triangle happens, but the volume thus far today suggests it is likely.

It shows up well using the 1 or 2 month HLC chart.

Circular being sent out today. See RNS 13.47p.m

I posted yesterday that the announcement probably compromises the triangle hypothesis. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to have been received by Moneyam.

The trade which appeared to break the triangle by rising above the apex was a single 11.42p buy of 10,000 shares: well above the prevailing price. Apart from that, the scenario still looks intact. With a 'well-known trader' turning strongly bearish, Monday should be interesting.

Looks like moneylender has sold all his Tadpole shares.

Why does it look like that?
In fact i have bought some more.
I am an investor not a trader and am looking to the future with this stock.
We are in the right place at the right time we have the technology to be an industry standard, and if the projected numbers are anything to go by it will be a big industry.

M

I'm sure you are aware that a certain friend of yours is deramping
the stock now moneylender, you cannot be best pleased about this?

Lots of people have a change of heart, some have different objectives/timescales to others. I have stated where i think this Co is going and have put my money where my mouth is. If anyone disagrees with me thats fine, its afree country and it would be a boring place if we all thought the same.

M

Fair points but your friend surely should stop deramping
the stock as you hold a lot of Tadpole stock dont you?

I know larger holders, I know smaller holders, its all relative. As for rampers/de-rampers its all a matter of prospective. If you believe in the Co then you are enthusiastic if you dont believe you sell. QED

M

Re: Volvo IT Adopts Endeavors' Streaming Software Technology for Schools and
Colleges

Please be advised that the following announcement will be issued today to
business and technology editors in EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa), and
North America.

Sincerely,

Hugh Paterson
Patcom for Tadpole Technology plc

As i say you either believe or not!!!!



M

Good post moneylender. Hopefully this will reverse the direction of the sp

We have fulfilled the triangle price prediction.

This is probably not ascribable to TA, but rather to people's responses to the document. There has been considerable discussion of the details elsewhere, but no concensus seems to be emerging.

Indie - I am not truly TA literate so could you tell me what happens once the "triangle" has been formed - do you expect the price to stay within a narrow channel until positive/negative news sets the new trend? Cheers.

Now that we finally have the deal details in the public domain, the Directors can concentrate in signing off the backlog of deals and contracts I am sure have built up.
Todays news of the Volvo deal is an example.

M

Indie - ignore my question - saw your fuller response on the "other" side. Cheers.

For those that understand it the following is a synopsis by Joestep off another BB.

Considering the circular more closely it seems possible to determine what the minimum expectation is for Softbank revenues and value over the two years following closing of the Stream Theory acquisition. Again, expectations are not fact or even forecasts, but it suggests to me what the two companies perceive as the minimum potential.

Based solely on the amounts given that 2X revenues would need to exceed in order for Stream Theory holders to receive the earnouts (again, remember these would be in shares or at most 20% in cash), the minimum expectation appears to be $10,681,352 over two years. (Simply add the fixed amounts in Part II, 2.2 and divide by 2.)

Note that $2 mill has already been received by Stream Theory and that $4.5 mill is expected over the next 6 months based on the Softbank contract. The first 6 months after closing will therefore bring in nearly twice the minimum expectation ($4.5 vs $2.4). So at minimum, not counting what's come in, they are looking at a minimum of $13 mill cash revenues over the next two years from Softbank.

Presumably, the Stream Theory shareholders (and TAD) expects much more than that because for ST holders to get additional earnouts, they would need not only to exceed the minimums, but also exceed the prior total earnout amounts in each subsequent 6 month period.

The fact that Stream Theory and TAD agreed that ST holders will receive $150 mill (less previous earnout payments) should Softbank acquire TAD or ETI suggests that the expected revenues from Softbank greatly exceed these minimums. It seems impossible to determine what the total sale price might be without knowing the total revenues or profits or what price to sales or earnings ratios are applicable. However, it does suggest a valuation for Stream Theory and that the value of the combined company is expected to increase markedly and much more than to $150 mill as this amount would only be what the ST shareholders get (less earnouts).

patch,

S'orrite. The price recovered nicely today to end only 0.5p down on heavy volumes. There was clearly a concerted attempt to panic the price down, but demand kicked in and anyone short will be worried. 11p (triangle apex) remains the probable upside limit for the short term. After all, it was only a short term triangle.

Normal action after a break downward from a small triangle is for the price prediction to be met fairly quickly, followed by a rise toward the apex, then another, more gradual but extensive fall. That scenario is by no means set in stone and refers only to the shorter term anyway. The problem is that the price has already hit the 8.75 to 9p support and bounced from it. A typical drop after the rally we see now might conceivably see prices drop through that level.

Indie - cheers.

On the earn-out in the event of Tad/ETI being taken over by Softbank:-

A figure of $150M does not mean that this is a realistic expectation of revenues to Tad for the current contract or future ones in Japan. A takeover by Softbank would be just that. It would be based on Softbank's appraisal of Tad's on-going potential worldwide in Softbank's hands.

Much has been made of Softbank's connections in other territories and their aggressive stance. If Tad were taken over, those markets as well as all others would be available to Softbank to sell into. The monetary value of that to Softbank should be orders of magnitude greater than expected payments under the current ST/Softbank deal.

The obverse consideration is that the $150m would be only the earn-out to ST shareholders and not the value of the overall deal.