Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

CC I've also been following your posts with interest as I was in a similar frame of mind to you in November, thinking about chucking CFD's in favour of FX. After posting my thoughts on here at the time, I got a sharp lesson in reality from Hils, 1. any prat could make money in a strong bull market and 2. trading derivatives without TA is madness. This last 2/3 months I've spent intensively studying TA and I've just started trading equity CFD's again with some success. I don't want to put you off FX, but I believe most people would agree that FX is harder than equities. I think that if I had rushed into FX I would have lost a fair bit of money (thanks Hils).
Hope that this is helpful to you knowing how others have dealt with the end of the bull market.

Regarding cable and not knowing where it's going, this is my simple take on the daily chart.



I would suggest that the uptrend from early 2006 (blue line) has now been broken and that it is being restrained within a down trend by the red line. If I were looking for a long term long trade (which I'm not), I wouldn't buy it until the red line next gets broken.

The red stochs line suggests that it's got further to fall. I would expect to see that red line pass below 20% and bounce along the bottom for at least a few months.

Hils,

Could you be a bit more precise about the exact date and value we should go long at?

Thanks ;o)

7th June at 3:43am, Sue.

:o)

That's a Saturday, btw.

Hilary,
If I could find a method which would produce money by sitting in trades for a week I'd do that
If I could find a method on which I just traded once or twice a day and make a profit I'd do that
If I could find a method day-trading which would make a profit I'd do that.

Believe me i've got any number of demo accounts running various strategies.

But right now I can't make any work so I'm trying one for a week or 2, then trying another etc etc. I don't think this is necessarily wrong because i have learnt in the process. Just not learnt enough yet.
I don't think i'm in any different situation really than any newbie trader just floundering around trying to see the big of magic which makes a difference.
Sadly.

CC,

It sounds to me as if you've got information overload from punting around too many ideas.

Can I suggest that you just simplify things and go right back to basics, removing all of your lines and indicators along the way.

Then just pick one instrument. Don't confuse matters by fcuking about with multiple instruments at this stage.

Then just pick one timeframe. Again, don't confuse matters by fcuking about with multiple timeframes at this stage.

Then just pick one indicator. Again, don't confuse matters by fcuking about with multiple indicators at this stage. That indicator could be a pair of MA's (slow sma, faster ema) or MACD (Chocopops Magic Settings are good) or some stochs settings.

Then every time that your chosen indicator says buy, you buy without any fcuking about whatsoever. And every time that your chosen indicator says sell, you sell without any fcuking about whatsoever. Even if your entry subsequently transpires to have been cr@p. Even if you lose money on the trade, that's not important. You will also have winners and the aim is that the winners outweigh the losers. Don't think about whether or not to press the button, because that's dangerous. Just press the buttons and strip out the emotions. Don't panic into offloading winning positions, just run them until your chosen indicator says reverse.

Work on that, and report on here how you're doing.

I've been pressing the buttons unthinkingly with success...... now it's just dawned on me, it was my brain holding me back :>)

Try reading "Way of the Turtle" by Curtis Faith CC , may give you a few ideas.

CC, I know nothing about FX but from years of reading these boards I've found that the success of traders is in inverse relation to the amount of time they spend trying to understand the market and/or have a view of it. The market is basically irrational and the more you try to understand it, the less you will actually do so. Any understanding you do get will be because the market is behaving in a particular way for an extended period (e.g. a trending market) and therefore certain strategies will work for a period. When the market stops behaving in that way and they stop working of course you will be snookered unless you realise pretty pronto.

Dead Cat Bounce's experiences as related on an AFN thread some years ago ("Why I'm giving up daytrading") pretty much covers the issue.

You have posted a number of times your view on the market or market events, e.g. what will happen to interest rates at the committee meetings. That is just gambling of course, you have no way of knowing and it won't help your trading to guess.

Much better just to sit down in the morning and see whether people are buying or selling, and jump on the bandwagon. If it isn't clear whether they are buying or selling, either look at another market or do something else for an hour or two and look again.

TA and fundamentals do both have a use, but there is no point in using them to guess what the market should be doing when it isn't doing that.

I had 45 mins late Monday afternoon and made 11 pips from 2 trades (both trades were open a couple of minutes max). I did 2 trades late last night in 45 mins and made +2, that's one per trade, each trade open or about 10 mins!!. Too busy today but given that a £20k trade uses £150 margin I'm going for short term only. Still push the button when my mind says rather than my indicators but getting better, but last week was lousy for me, still struggling when I thought it was going so well. Anyway, plodding on :-)

hils thanks

Could you clarify the value of cable on the 7th June - just in case it hits that value earlier

Many thanks

;o)

Joking aside - I am sitting on a profit making cable short and have no idea when I should close it - my issue is that I am about to start a new contarct so can't keep an eye on things.

Not for Hils - just a general point regarding Fx v CFD's on shares / indices - I disagree - you couldn't have a FX going to zero but a share can.

Equity CFD's or anything else, the moment they go wrong - dump 'em

Sue,

I've got no idea whatsoever when you should close your cable short nor at what price. It's clearly still coming down on the daily charts though and, as you've had it open for some weeks now and are comfortable with it, I would continue to leave it open for now.

Personally, I would close it either when you see a ma crossover of the MACD coupled with a turn up or when the dotted raw stochs line passes up through its red ma.

I wouldn't buy it, however, until it breaks up through the falling thick red line and, instead, would continue to trade it short.

morning all. 11 o'clock and Pipex still haven't fixed my broadband after last night's gales so stuck with a oh so slow 56k modem.

mnay thanks for all the encouragement.

To Plateman I can assure you my reasons for trading fx are nothing to do with the end of the bull market. I won't go into a long explanation here but it's to do with the lack of available liquidity on stocks from about 30th on the ftse down to the ones nearer the bottom of the ftse100. I never could trade the really big caps and my system cannot be adapted for it. Bull bear or sideways market it really didn't matter to me.

To Dil. I will buy the turtles book.

To Hilary. I will do as suggested and will enjoy the no fcking about rule. I have chosen eurjpy, am trading off the macd and will use M1 as anything higher than this and I might not get any signals some days. I will start after the rate decision as i've lost so much of the morning now and anyways I don't suppose I can run more than about 1 chart on a 56k modem. lol.

That should be a sound start, CC. May I suggest that for your chosen instrument and timeframe, you use Chocopops Magic MACDTM settings and that you act upon it passing through the zero line rather than a ma crossover.

so, just to check, like where the arrows are Hilary?


Ps - I promise to delete one of the indicator windows before I start this. It's just that I don't like the default metatrader macd with one line and find it easier to understand the upper layout in its more usual format.
For our excercise deleting the top one seems the best idea though

Yes, CC, except that I would be more inclined to go with the main line rather than the lagging signal line.

Out of interest, how do get the more tradational MACD depiction in MT4? I didn't know that it could be done.

You need to add a custom indicator to your metatrader platform. This doesn't come as standard with mt4

go here:
http://www.forex-tsd.com/indicators-metatrader-4/87-indicators-alert-signal-108.html#post169228

and download the file to c:\program files\metatrader 4\experts\indicators.

you need to change the metatrader4 folder to metatrader - North Finance or ODL metatrader depending on where you downloaded mt4 from.

Then close mt4 and reopen it. If you look in custom indicators in navigator you will see and indicator called macd_colorHist_AlertGGv2. Just attach it to your chart with the relevant settings.


Notes. It has an alert built in with sound which will pop up to tell you when the signal line crosses through zero and when the histogram crosses zero. This alert appear to filter some "noise" around the cross lines so it doesn't pop up like mad all the time in a tight choppy market so don't rely on the alert. It's pretty good but you still have to watch the chart. I think it must have some paramter setting to look for say a move across +/- a small amount but I haven't been bothered to read the code to find out. Or maybe it just checks for the cross at the end of the period - i haven't persued this - it's not why i got it in the first place - i just wanted a standard macd chart

It's got email facilities too for distribution to email and texts to moblile phone but please don't ask me how all this works. I'd love to set that kind of thing up but it's pretty pointless unless I can start making money. I will tell you though it's not a five minute job for someone like me - all smtp experts apply here.

So instead of me sitting here all day staring at the signal line on the eurjpy chart i can wait for my speakers to go beep instead. lol. Actually that;s not the point of the excercise is it - i will watch the chart properly and observe what happens.


If you still need help or haven't/don't want to register with tsd pm me and i'll send you the file.

Oh and beware they are zillions of these indicators but many are flawed. And I don't been flawed that they don't produce money (not that they do anyway), flawed because they don't do what they say they will. Checking them really carefully is essential

Can I get metatrader free or do I have to be with a broker that uses it.

Cheers