The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

Tokyo

I like it! Working hard, eh! And on our behalf, their shareholders and ultimate masters! Confident! Those of us with experience of working on the final stages of a bid which you know is likely to win are 'what?' - 'quietly confident'. No euphoria - yet. Just a quiet confidence that you have something you sell that you know the customer wants to buy and, you also know, the customer trusts you because he has got to know you well and he knows that you will deliver what you have promised! It says it all. Thanks Tokyo - that is the best yet! (sorry, in danger of becoming euphoric!)

Eric

Eric: After reading the Tokyo post like you, I have been in this position many times on Sales pitches....perhaps the CFD on PET not such a bad idea? Perhaps I will!!! John

Can't sleep and have just checked my e-mail, someone on another thread is reporting that the e-mail posted over on advfn this morning was a fake as they tried to verify it with DH, and his reply was I did not write that, so unless someone else verifies it, I'm afraid we should assume it is a fake.

Tokyo

Tokyo

Hope you managed to get a good night's rest and are not checking here in the middle of the night. Quite strange if it was a fake. If it was a fake: firstly, why? secondly, would you fake a reply like that? Doesn't seem to make sense. Mind, it maybe doesn't matter either way whether it was a fake. My comments about the closing process on a contract really still apply. Silence is golden, as I suspect all our schoolmasters used to say, and 'silence speaks louder than words'. I am comfortable with silence in this case. Silence means people hard at work working on something so important to them, and therefore to us, that they haven't time to speak and, in any case, they are committed to silence. Any breaking of the silence at this stage could be seen as negative. If you have ever stepped from a ski-lift at the top of a mountain and felt the silence, you know how marvellous it can be. Euphoria is beginning to seep in again - but we do need to keep up the chat on this column even if it is just talking about the silence!

Eric

Hi all.

Topping up again eh Toyko? So is this the last,last,last,last,final,no more, fin(spanish), durer(french),the utmost no more topup of PET? How many times have you said that? If I had a pound for each time you said that I would have enough money to buy more shares in PET than you!!

Only joking but good luck Toyko. If I had a hat I would take it off to you.

Take care everyone and GOOD LUCK!!

wilbs

Hey Eric - I questioned the originator of the e-mail last night, but no reply, so I'm thinking that it is indeed a fake, not that it makes much difference, as PET's silence at the moment speaks volumes. It just really annoys me that someone would bother to make up a fake e-mail, as now any information squeezed out of PET will be questioned by one and all, and when asked to verify it, they will just stop giving out anything and it only goes to hurt true investors.

Tokyo

final top up, just a little one 1907 @ 104.8, of course as fate would have it, after every top up, the prices goes down a little, but if I wasn't sure that this month it was gonna rocket I wouldn't have bought them.

Good luck all

Tokyo

tokyo

can you shed any light on the effect the conclusion of ramadan might have on negotiations, pure speculation I know, but coming out of that may just open the door to doing the right thing from the ministry in iraq. positive again I know. good luck with the top up.

watcher

It was reported earlier that they expected a decision either before or after Ramadan, from what I have found out Ramadan has very little effect on business over in Iraq, things may move a little slower, but nothing stops. The only news we do have is that the contracts are expected to be awarded sometime in November, WHEN I'm afraid is pure speculation, there is a thread over the other side for whe the RNS will be released, and alot of people have gone for November 15th, which is the Monday after Ramadan is finished, if that is any help, but again, in this news black out all we can do is wait!!!!aagghhhhhhhhhhhh


p.s. the reason why the assination didn't efect the SP of PET today is probably Hussein Ali al-Fattal, director general of the oil by-products distribution company(Not the oil ministry)

a little sloothing here is the story

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-11/03/content_2173724.htm

BAGHDAD, Nov. 3 (Xinhuanet) -- Gunmen assassinated a senior Iraqi Oil Ministry official in a drive-by shooting in Baghdad on Wednesday, a ministry spokesman said.

Hussein Ali al-Fattal, director general of the oil by-products distribution company, was shot dead in Yarmouk district in western Baghdad after leaving his house heading to his work, Asim Jihad said.

Earlier, Fattal received threats like many officials in the ministry, according to Jihad, who said "they are trying to undermine this vital sector in the country."

Iraq's oil industry has been the target of repeated attacks by insurgents in recent months.

Would be surprised by 15th November because of the assumed process, discussed above. No point in them receiving the final tender(s) until after Ramadan. They then have to evaluate and gain internal approvals. My money would be on 29th November. No prizes for that but it gives time for topping up. Blast! ASC interims are that day so difficult to stag both!

Eric

In the eternal wait for the elusive RNS, thought a small recap might be in order, feel free to add anything I have missed

In a news black out there really is nothing to focus on with PET, I think we all agree here, that PET look the favourites to get the tenders, as what news there has been, i.e. the JV with the Jordanian company on block 6,a line of credit of 250m from a Japanese trading company, a work schedule agreed but final signiture awaiting, getting through to stage three talks on the tender process, the Iraqi ministers coming to Ireland and then the subsquencel visit to Iraq by the PET management team, the same team which had stated that if posible they would elict for risk sharing agreements, a few days later after finding out that some countries had not yet filled their financial promises to Iraq for cash the oil minister hinted that risk sharing agreements would benefit both Iraq and the oil companies, after that new comes that PET were asked to resubmit tenders after talks. I think that about covers it, the rest is all speculation and waiting for the result.

Tokyo

I have a question re risk/reward for any new investors following this story and debating whether or not to "get on" at this advanced stage - assuming that much of the speculation on one or two contracts is already baked into the price, what do posters see as the potential upside for the SP (the inherent value) post the RNS e.g...

one tender ?

two tenders ?

three tenders ?

Also, what if (doomsday scenario) no tenders?

I realise this is asking a very simple question to a complex subject (beyond my limited information and capabilities) but it should be possible to define a range of valuation related to the market cap and financials post any of the above scenarios. Interested to hear views...perhaps we could even organise a sweepstake!?

Joehargan1 - Best advice is to go back thru the threads and take posting by Tokyo, Dexter and EWRobson to name a few, there are many many posts that are of great informative use.

thanks gra1969, I've been following the thread since it started with a few early posts of my own but just curious to hear views on the sp potential ranges post the RNS.

This is the Month -don't miss the boat! will be marked up tomorrow going by the trades today.

I have topped up so many times that i feel im about to burst!!!!!!!!
joeHargan1- there is a very interesting thread about two weeks ago that was commenting on anywhere from 2-4 SP, with an eventually 7-10 potential target from the bigger players a while down the line.

larger companies will wanna takeover this outfit at some point so this is very cheap! oilbarrel.com had them a buy at 1.21 and 1.50 etc with this in mind!

joehargan1 - Take a look at PET's website, click on 2004 slides, go to slide 17, you'll see with a 30% chance of risk sharing they price the shares at 3.30pounds, of course if it a risk sharing agreement straight away then in reality we could be looking at 10 pounds a share on just one tender, but very speculative, really depends on what people are willing to pay, and if the majors make a play for PET.

Just for fun do these sums (I did a while ago and came out with crazy numbers, as I was only looking for 4 pounds a share)

number of barrels per day (120,000) x 365 = 43,800,000

43,800,000 x $60 (a barrel) = 2,628,000,000

*note - DH has already stated Any reasonable terms (say 30% production sharing) could literally be worth billions given the size of structure and relatively fast time to develop giving existing infrastructure. Petrel has few shares in issue (only 66m fully diluted).


2,628,000,000 - 70% = $788,400,000

$788,400,000 / 66,000,000(shares in issue) = $11.94(EPS)

Earnings per share = $11.94 x 10 (P/E ratio) = possible SP of $119.40

$119.40 = 65 pounds


With the above maths you can see the potential, but until the RNS is released and we know what we are dealing with, I'm afriad they just remain silly numbers

Also remember if they get a risk sharing agreement, they are still a long way from being able to pump the oil out of the ground, so 10 pounds a share seems more likely until the oil starts flowing.


The numbers were meant only for fun and to show what could happen in the future, and not for anyone to use now as investment advice!!!!


Good luck all

Tokyo

about time this moved!! and a nice mark up tomorrow!