Thought I'd start a new thread as this is going to be a major talking point this year...have not made up my mind yet...(unlike bucksfizz)....but thinking of voting for an exit as Europe is not doing Britain any good at all it seems....

Nicked from across the road..no attribute



For two years I have advised businesses to prepare for Brexit assuming that there will be no UK/EU trade agreement. A trade deal would be the best outcome but the Chequers plan is moribund and the conventional trade agreement offered by the EU in March is unacceptable because the “Irish backstop” involves splitting the UK. It is time to recognise that “no deal” is likely and would be a good second best, making a better deal possible later.

Leaving with no trade deal with the EU has four consequences. First, we would trade with the EU on World Trade Organisation terms. As trade and industry secretary I spent ten days incarcerated in the Heysel Stadium negotiating the Uruguay Round which set up the WTO. Far from “falling off a cliff”, WTO terms are designed to provide a safety net ensuring all members can trade without discrimination. The EU will have to offer us the most favoured nation terms its other major trading partners enjoy.

The Uruguay Round also halved most tariffs. So, the average tariff the EU would levy on our exports would be 4 per cent. Non-tariff border costs add just 0.1 per cent, according to the Swiss. They are dwarfed by the 15 per cent boost to our exporters’ competitiveness from movement of the pound since the referendum. There would be winners and losers – a 10 per cent tariff on cars, higher still on food. But applying EU tariffs to our imports from Europe would yield £13 billion. Even if we slash those tariffs, as we should, it would leave enough to compensate the losers.

Some argue that tariff-free access to the EU market was worth paying for. But Britain’s £10 billion net contribution is 7 per cent of the value of our exports. Paying 7 per cent to avoid 4 per cent was not a good deal!

We will be free to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership immediately, negotiate trade deals with America and others, and slash tariffs on goods we don’t produce, especially necessities like food and clothing.

Second, without a trade deal parliament will reject any withdrawal agreement offering the EU £40 billion. The whole agreement - money, citizens’ rights, Ireland, transition - then falls. That leaves Britain £40 billion better off, and ends our annual £10 billion net contribution immediately, boosting our GDP, balance of payments and public finances.

We must guarantee unilaterally - as we should have on day one - EU citizens’ rights in Britain, shaming the EU to reciprocate. The unjustified Irish border “backstop” commitment disappears. HMRC says Britain will not “require any infrastructure at the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland under any circumstances” – tariffs can be collected alongside VAT returns. The previous Irish government agreed an invisible customs frontier, as will Leo Varadkar given no alternative. Then the conventional trade deal with the EU becomes possible.

The third implication of “no deal” emanates largely from Remainers’ fevered imaginations - motorways becoming lorry parks, food and drug shortages, planes grounded.

How we control imports is in our hands. Lorries laden with fresh food will not be queuing for hours at Dover since Dover sees no need for new physical checks. Tariffs would be collected electronically like excise and VAT. If some firms initially fail to complete electronic customs declarations, HMRC will avoid delays by waving lorries through. If the French slow down Calais, the Dutch and Belgian ports want the business and will offer speedier service.

We will continue to authorise medicines we currently import – the EU can either reciprocate or put their patients at risk. BA’s Willie Walsh has dismissed fears of planes being grounded and continental airlines are selling tickets way beyond March 2019. Spain would not forgo 1.5 million British tourists a month.

The hostile non-cooperation envisaged by Remainers would be not only impractical but triply illegal. It contravenes the EU’s constitution, which requires it “to establish an area of good neighbourliness” with neighbouring countries; the WTO treaty which forbids discrimination against trading partners; and the new trade facilitation treaty which commits members to facilitate trade not obstruct it.

The threat is intended to portray leaving the EU as costly. In fact it demonstrates that membership has no significant benefits. If the positive benefits of membership were significant their loss would be deterrent enough against leaving. The Berlin wall was an admission that only threats could stop people leaving East Germany because there were no positive reasons to remain. Likewise, Remainers’ threats of EU hostile non-cooperation if we leave with no deal are an admission that remaining in the EU confers no net benefit.

They seriously underestimate the British people if they think we will cave in before such threats, let alone surrender in the unlikely event it materialises.

Finally, freed from the constraints of EU membership and Article 50 we could negotiate our new relationship with the EU as equals.

Lord Lilley was trade and industry secretary 1990-92

The problem I see is how long will it take to negotiate the NEW DEALS under WTO regulations.

It sounds to me that after storming out of the EU and its rules the UK will curtsy to the new authority ie. the WTO.

Hooray.

? Cave in.

Do you mean starve?

Now, which of you are outraged?

Fred.

We are already members of the WTO, as is the €U.

The trading framework already exists in basic form, and can be modified to suit if wanted.

Most of the world trades under WTO rules....What is so hard to understand?

Nothing to negotiate then.

UMMH!

Here is a reasonable appraisal of TWO regulations for simpletons like I am.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872

Mmmm definitely is a guide for simpletons.

Lots of could, maybe, might, possibly, perhaps.............eg written by a remoaner as part of the Project Fear.

What do you expect , BBC are bigger remoaners than Fred.

Tick tock tick tock ....

Well, at least it now looks as though the vibes are showing 'we are on it'.

That didn't seem to be the case 3 months ago.

The low readership figures for lefty media suggests little appetite for lefty content.

Either that, Haystack, or the 'Great Unwashed' either can't afford or can't be bothered to buy a newspaper each day when they can read it for free online.

:o)

The media stats include online readership. So lefties not reading left media online either.

For Dil.

The time has come to teach the political class a lesson: I'm back fighting for a real Brexit

By

Nigel Farage


17 August 2018 • 10:00pm





It is now beyond doubt that the political class in Westminster and many of their media allies do not accept the EU referendum result. They refuse to acknowledge the wishes of the majority of those who took part in that historic plebiscite of 2016 by voting to leave the European Union. As far as I’m concerned, this is the worst case of Stockholm syndrome ever recorded.

It is equally clear to me that, unless challenged, these anti-democrats will succeed in frustrating the result. Whatever they may claim publicly, this is their ultimate objective. They think nothing of betraying the citizens of Britain.

For months now we have heard the same argument from this bunch: “Leave voters did not know what...



More if you sign up: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/17/time-has-come-teach-political-class-lessonim-back-fighting-real/

Go Nigel go Nigel ....

Danish PM warned yesterday that the chances of us getting a deal are now only 50%. Oh well that's his bacon exports fecked.

Amusing how many warnings we get from nobodies.
Even more amusing, if that is the right word, is the fuss about the alleged overspend by the leave campaign while ignoring the £9M spent by Cameron on his fear campaign and the millions now being spent on overturning the result.
This and that wasn't on the ballot paper, they like to say, forgetting that the ballot paper was preceded by 16 pages of small print explaining, in the Remainders view, exactly what we were voting for. Get on with it May.

Is it Dil, It, or Mark pushing the wheelbarrow?

O dear, unbiased opinion from the Guardian. Give it up Fred, retire with grace. There is no bad Brexit. Just Brexit. We have heard all the "bad" before. Now it is just boring.

"Grace"!

You mean the future that some Brexiter's want.

Hobbling around the World cap in hand hoping for help outs.

Wondering why Little England has become a banana republic and has become a tourist cheap holiday resort.

But it is good to see the Spiv is back leading the UKIP and Far Right once again.

A leaf out of Corby's book...lol



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/19/brexit-tory-mps-warn-of-entryism-threat-from-leave-eu-supporters