cynic
- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
BigTed
- 06 Feb 2008 09:56
- 936 of 21973
Just read a lengthy article, and have to agree somewhat, it pointed out that a (full blown) recession in america is virtually impossible while interest rates are 3% or lower, so although they may well technically be in a recession now, it will be short lived and the prospect of cheap loans once again will be irresistable come the summer, so the real problem lies at the end of the year when the FED will be forced to raise interest rates aggressively to curb spiralling inflation and the full on recession will be later in 2009/10, i feel sorry for any americans who dont figure this out and get into much more debt later this year, because any growth in Q3/4 will quickly be snuffed out...
BigTed
- 06 Feb 2008 16:27
- 937 of 21973
Keep reading that a quarter point rate cut is a done deal tomorrow, but if the minutes showed last meeting 8 -1 against, i would think its anything but a done deal... I wonder if the Dow finishes up +150 or so tonight but we dont get the cut tomorrow, how it will affect the FTSE, we are lagging behind this afternoon and am currently contemplating going long for a gamble...
spitfire43
- 06 Feb 2008 16:51
- 938 of 21973
I think markets have factored a 0.25 cut in already, if you look at the fed cut last week, they are are not in the the thinking now, a very limited effect. A long on the ftse now would as say be a gamble.
kate bates
- 06 Feb 2008 18:04
- 939 of 21973
Good thread this. A couple worth watching for trades are MNR and SCHE. Both don't half shift either way and both available in good size to trade. Both should bounce tomorrow with a rate cut. MNR has been a beauty for me bouncing between 130-150p of late. They're both that oversold that a badly timed trade is eventually rewarded.
BigTed
- 06 Feb 2008 18:23
- 940 of 21973
Agree, bought SCHE this morning first thing @170.5p been up to 183p and back down, could recover into the 400's...
explosive
- 06 Feb 2008 19:28
- 941 of 21973
Been shorting Wall St all day now.
BigTed
- 06 Feb 2008 20:47
- 942 of 21973
So at what figure would you say 12200 support is broken? obviously it could tease below by 20/30 points but come back above, but what about 12150? surely that is the point where there is no return and then we could test new lows???
explosive
- 06 Feb 2008 21:35
- 943 of 21973
Big Ted, your looking at very short term with those numbers, I look for a longer term figure, 12781 I thought the DOW would head towards before falling, it came close Friday or Monday, now I'm expecting a fall to 10500 max, its sure to stall on the way and tomorrow could be one of these days. I'll most likely leave tomorrow and see what happens and then short again Friday. I'm not really sure there is any support is at 12200, We've pretty well cruised 300 points with little downside resistence, expecting 12000 to be a different matter. Phycological (thats not spelt right, it's late.) barrier 12000 I believe will be the next support line.... Having said this any consistancy between 12100 and 12300 would cause me to rethink.... All this of course in my humble opion..
ptholden
- 06 Feb 2008 22:20
- 944 of 21973
More or less on support right now at 12100, next trendline support is at 11700, breaks down through there, you can make up a number ;)
steveo
- 06 Feb 2008 22:56
- 945 of 21973
Missed a rollercoaster by the looks of things. Reversing my gold short was bloody lucky timing today, for those not in it, get in soon. It's following a great trend line, good support at 888, stop set at around 862 could hit 940-50 in next week or two. Unless there is another blood bath and traders have to cover positions, I'd be surprised (and pi$%ed off to see it drop to below 855 again).
The way my supposedly good stocks keep disappointing am seriously considering sticking to indices, commodities and currency trading. Fundamentals and TA seem easier to follow.
BigTed
- 07 Feb 2008 07:08
- 946 of 21973
The 60 Minute Chart shows the Dow has had two bearish days in a row after breaking through the bottom of the tightly-coiled triangle yesterday morning. The index is now holding at 12,200 where it could get another bounce back toward the 12,500 level, or fail and drop back toward the 11,700 lows. As we mentioned before, a bounce at around the 12,200 level will likely spark a redefinition of the triangle moving forward. However, a clean break through 12,200 may pave the way back toward another test of the lows at 11,700.
BigTed
- 07 Feb 2008 12:22
- 947 of 21973
Everything i'm reading points to 12200 being important support level, we appear to be testing it this morning and not bouncing far off it each time... I cant really see any rally (certainly of any substance) in the next few days, sentiment seems to be very negative, and the rate cuts in U.S. are yesterdays news. As posted above 12150 seems to be the green light, so will wait and see. I have no position at present, just my long portfolio of which i have trimmed recently. So well done to those who have had a short running last few days, everything is screaming at me to open one now, but i do have a lot to learn and will see if my thoughts are proved correct this afternoon...
explosive
- 07 Feb 2008 13:54
- 948 of 21973
Your not alone seeing 12200 as a support point, as already stated I don't share this sentiment, will wait until after European Markets have closed tonight before making my plays. I suppose the long shot of all this is don't trade if you don't feel relatively secure of your bet.... Wheres Cynic gone? Always keen to hear his views upon support and resistence.. Good luck to all with open positions..
BigTed
- 07 Feb 2008 15:17
- 949 of 21973
Completely at a loss to understand the Dow, Walmart giving a poor update, Cisco likewise, Job claims showing a strain and it turns positive... I think that shows just the strength of the support at 12200...
spitfire43
- 07 Feb 2008 17:50
- 950 of 21973
All looking negative now, it looks like we are in a downward bear chanel now, with bear rallies. Confirmation might be indicated if the next low is lower then previous one, which I believe was 5555 on the 22nd January. I'm following some blue chip companies with a view of building a long term portfolio slowly over the next 12/18 months. With expert timing brought some BT 2 days back, 10% cheaper now ! Will add some more lower down 205p if they fall further.
explosive
- 07 Feb 2008 18:51
- 951 of 21973
Shorting at 12265... very volitile todays been...
explosive
- 07 Feb 2008 18:58
- 952 of 21973
Just touched 12300, will I be punished????
stroreysj
- 07 Feb 2008 19:00
- 953 of 21973
This is getting scary. 4 figure loss and still mounting. Can't work out the logic of why its going up. Just hoping the end of day sell off happens before im cleaned out
explosive
- 07 Feb 2008 19:09
- 954 of 21973
12330, looking scary now, holding in there though, fingers crossed its not an upset.... RSI climbing also..
explosive
- 07 Feb 2008 19:10
- 955 of 21973
The American 'buy one get one free' offer seams to be in place, small print always states though 'whilst stocks last'.... Famous last words.... maybe..!!