Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

odd moves half an hour ago on ecb comments that only options to hold or raise interest rates were discussed at last meeting.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar is weaker versus the euro following the release of housing data early Thursday, and is strengthening against the yen, as currency investors prepare for testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke before Congress later this morning.

On the day, the dollar is weaker against the euro, which slid markedly Wednesday. One factor is that European Central Bank governing council member Yves Mersch backtracked early Thursday from dovish comments published a day earlier. Another is a disappointing, although expected, financial earnings report from Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER).

Against the yen, the dollar is also down, but is showing significant leaps Thursday morning as risk appetite begins to return after a stark unwind in anticipation of Bernanke's testimony before the House Budget Committee at 10 a.m. EST (1500 GMT). He is expected to offer his support for an economic-stimulus package from Congress.

Early Thursday in New York, the euro was at $1.4679 from $1.4657 late Wednesday. The dollar was at Y107.40 from Y107.54. The euro was at Y157.66 from Y157.60, according to EBS. The U.K. pound was at $1.9722 from $1.9628, and the dollar was quoted at CHF1.1020 from CHF1.0993 late Wednesday.

Home construction plunged 14.2% in December, tumbling to its lowest point in 16 years, after falling 7.9% in November, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The big decline surprised Wall Street. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was a 5.0% drop.

But the effect on the dollar was mollified by the release of weekly jobless claims at the same time, which fell for the third straight week.

The fundamental near-term outlook for the dollar still looks bleak, say analysts, especially as U.S. interest rates are still expected to be cut relatively aggressively at the end of January - no matter Wednesday's jump. That was about euro weakness, which is still a factor Thursday. ECB's Mersch, a usually hawkish official, acknowledged that euro-zone growth might have to be downgraded from 2.0% this year Wednesday. Markets saw this as evidence that the ECB may not be in rate hiking mode after all.

"His remarks fed what is arguably a growing perception that the ECB has remained hawkish in part to discourage overly zealous wage demands from labor unions, but that rates are unlikely to move higher," said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

But early Thursday, Mersch clarified that the central bank did not discuss cutting interest rates at its Jan. 10 policy meeting, causing a slight reverse to the consequent dollar boost.

"The key question we must grapple with is how much is already priced into the currency market, and whether shifts in the interest rate outlook elsewhere might be more important," Sutton said.

Merrill Lynch matched Citigroup Inc.'s (C) massive fourth-quarter net loss Thursday, as the company recorded $14.6 billion in losses related to subprime mortgages and complex debt instruments, and write-down expectations as high as $15 billion.

The dollar's recent decline against the yen has incited chatter that Japan might intervene in its foreign exchange market if the buck drops lower to Y100.

A former top Japanese currency official said Thursday that even if the U.S. dollar falls to around Y102, government intervention is highly unlikely.

"Japan would need agreement from the U.S. for any intervention, but the U.S. wouldn't comply," said Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's former vice finance minister for international affairs. "Japan can't intervene either verbally or physically. A U.S. Treasury document last year clearly states the U.S. is against even verbal intervention."

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday endorsed a "quickly" implemented fiscal stimulus package, saying it would complement the Fed's efforts to provide monetary-policy insurance against an economic downturn.

In prepared testimony to the House Budget Committee, Bernanke also repeated the pledge he made last week to enact "substantive" rate cuts if needed to counter the threat to the economy posed by fragile financial markets and weakening employment.

Those remarks were widely interpreted to mean that the Fed would reduce its short-term interest-rate target, probably by half a percentage point from its current 4.25%, at the central bank's next meeting, Jan. 29-30. It has already lowered the fed funds rate 100 basis points since September.

Recent data, including a steep rise in unemployment and decline in retail sales, have supported that view, though in the Fed's latest Beige Book assessment of economic conditions released Wednesday the central bank signaled the economy is slowing but not contracting. The latest jobless claims data also suggest last month's jobs report may have overstated the weakness in the economy.

Bernanke, whose remarks on the economy and monetary policy largely mirrored last week's speech, also repeated that the Fed is "prepared to act in a decisive and timely manner and, in particular, to counter any adverse dynamics that might threaten economic or financial stability." He also reiterated that downside growth risks have become more pronounced.

Housing, he said, will probably subtract more than one percentage point from gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter and "may continue to be a drag on growth for a good part of this year as well."

But he stressed that the Fed is still keeping a close eye on inflation and inflation expectations. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices "has stepped up recently," Bernanke said, due to the pass-through effects of energy costs, the weakening dollar and higher prices for financial and medical services. But overall and core inflation should moderate this year and next, he said.

The government on Wednesday reported that consumer prices rose at a 17-year high on a December-over-December basis last year, and annual core inflation crept higher at the end of the year to 2.4%, putting it above the Fed's 1.5% to 2% comfort zone.

Any rise in inflation expectations or threat to the Fed's inflation-fighting reputation could "reduce the central bank's policy flexibility to counter shortfalls in growth in the future," Bernanke said, reiterating last week's remarks.

Thursday's remarks included an extensive discussion of fiscal stimulus, a topic Bernanke has avoided publicly until now. "I agree that fiscal action could be helpful in principle, as fiscal and monetary stimulus together may provide broader support for the economy than monetary policy actions alone," he told lawmakers.

Congressional leaders from both parties have met in recent days to craft an economic stimulus package, though specific plans vary. The expected tab is expected to be in the $100 billion range.

Fiscal stimulus is OK, Bernanke said, as long as it is "implemented quickly and structured so that its effects on aggregate spending are felt as much as possible within the next 12 months or so."

He stressed that any stimulus be "explicitly temporary" given that the U.S. faces "daunting long-run budget challenges associated with an aging population, rising health-care costs, and other factors."

Bernanke has in the past repeatedly warned lawmakers of the budgetary effect of rising entitlement spending as the roughly 78-million-strong Baby Boom generation retires and collects Social Security and Medicare benefits.

Not too pleased with the retail

Hmmmmmmmm Thanks hils - I'm working away so can't really do anything! need to decide whether to close for a small profit, wait & make large loss, or wait & make large profit! Good thing I didn't decide last night.

i have taken a position in eurusd from 1.4626.

It has hit the downtrend line from 1.4900 now.

macd's have been turning positive over the last hour and i hope this will give it enough momentum to get through the downtrend line.

I have not decided how many pips I am looking for but i think 1.4725 would be a nice place to consider. depending on how things look later i hope to either bank half there or get a stop in say 30 pips below and let it run. 1.4725 is approx the 38 fib from the fall from 1.4900 and it conincides roughly with the spike high from the 16th at 1.4710 and today's R1.

I currently have a stop at 1.4589 below the consolidation lows since this time yesterday of 1.4605. It is not below the 2 spike lows of the 16th and 17th which worries me. I desperately want to move it up to breakeven but i want to give the trade a decent chance to suceed.

comments anyone ?

edit :1245 i've now moved the stop to breakeven

Sue,

My comments were based upon the signals from the daily charts which were starting to show signs of a move up. The problem is that the daily cable range is often around 200 pips. A naff entry and exit on a longer term trade such as yours can easily erode 400 pips into your profit.

The daily range down here seems to be between about 1.9550 and 1.9750. I suggest that if you decide to exit that you bide your time till it gets down closer towards the lower figure.

well closed just over a third at 1.4692 for +66. moved stop up on rest to 1.4642

bit of a retrace before the next push up i hope.

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Sterling could be in for a bounce.

With the European Central Bank sounding a little less hawkish than usual, the outlook for the U.S. economy still deteriorating, and with continued strong U.K. inflation data making it more difficult for the Bank of England to cut interest rates, the pound's outlook could be looking brighter again.

Some forecasters suggest that the pound could bounce back over $2.00, with Steve Merrigan, technical analyst at The Royal Bank of Scotland in London, suggesting that if there is a weekly close over $1.9755 there could be a more protracted recovery to $2.0125.

Even without the shift in fundamentals, some analysts say that the pound's decline to a low of $1.9485 last week was overdone.

"The earlier selloff in sterling/dollar looks decidedly overdone relative to the moves in expected interest rate spreads, and this recovery is merely making amends," said Daragh Maher, senior foreign exchange strategist at Calyon Credit Agricole in London.

"It seems the pound may have found a floor for now," said Sue Trinh, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney.

Trinh suggested this may not last, however, if U.K. retail sales data due later Friday continue to show the sharp deterioration that many expect.

The consensus is for sales to have risen only 0.2% in December, less than the 0.4% rise seen in November. The British Retail Consortium warned last week that Christmas trading was the worst since 2004.

Concern over the pace of the economic slowdown increased this week when the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors said that house prices are falling at the fastest rate since the housing market crash and recession of the early 1990's.

"The effects of the credit crunch, weak employee earnings growth and worries about the economic outlook have led to housing activity slowing dramatically," said James Knightley, a U.K. economist at ING Financial Markets in London.

"Given the important (and strong) relationship with consumer spending that housing has, it looks as though the household sector growth is set to slow sharply," Knightley added.

He said there is a risk that sales growth could well slow to zero as a result.

Other data showing continued tightness in the U.K. labor market, with the claimant count falling 6,400 last month, failed to inject much optimism about the economy either.

"The strong labor market data is backward-looking and unlikely to drive monetary policy sentiment in the near term," said Lena Komileva, G7 group economist at international brokers Tullett Prebon in London.

Nevertheless, the initial assumption that the Bank of England would be able to respond to the economic slowdown with aggressive cuts in interest may prove wrong.

Recent data show that the consumer price index has remained above the bank's target for three months.

"With the labor market remaining tight, utility bills rising and sterling weakening, inflation remains a threat that the Bank of England will keep a watchful eye over," ING's Knightley warned, suggesting that this will make the bank more conservative about bringing rates lower.

BoE Deputy Governor John Gieve fed these more hawkish expectations Thursday when he warned that inflation could remain "well" above the bank's 2% target.

This slightly more hawkish adjustment on U.K. rate expectations has coincided with probably more dovish prospects for interest rates both in the U.S. and the euro zone.

In the U.S., a stream of disappointing economic data over the last week, combined with more explicit expressions of concern from the Fed, has raised expectations of more aggressive rate cuts in the months to come.

In the euro zone, the European Central Bank's previously hawkish stance on rates may have softened slightly as economic data continue to suggest that the region is starting to suffer from the impact of the credit global credit crunch.

This could mean that instead of hinting at the possibility of further rate hikes to keep price pressures in check, the ECB could actually contemplate lowering rates to preserve growth.

Steve Pearson, chief currency strategist at Bank of Scotland in London, pointed to the widening in the two-year swap rate differential in the U.K. relative to the euro zone to nearly 90 basis points now, from a low of 62 points, as trading got underway at the start of this year.

"This would ordinarily apply downward pressure on euro/sterling but the move is likely to be all the stronger now as the (currency) rate had clearly significantly overshot," Pearson said.

Earlier this week, the euro rose to a record high of GBP0.7613 but has since fallen back to trade at GBP0.7434 at 0745 GMT Friday. This was a little below GBP0.7439 late Thursday in New York, according to EBS.

The dollar was generally higher after a rebound in Japanese stocks helped to lift sentiment again, with the Nikkei ending 0.6% higher. This contrasted with a 2.5% fall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared to confirm that rates will be cut by 50 basis points at the end of this month, given the weakness of the U.S. economy.

The dollar was up at Y107.24 from Y106.73, while the euro rose to Y157.03 from Y156.51. The euro was also down at $1.4643 from $1.4659.

Choccie, Adobe are lying to you. Download 8.1.1 - that should work. Incidentally, Adobe is named after the Adobe creek in Palo Alto. Not many people know that. D

well stopped out on the rest of eurusd at 1.4642 which is a pity as I thought i had a good trade there. Morale of the story is that when multiple indicators start turning against you get out fast. very fast.
However, i'm pretty happy cos i think i got a good entry and i did close some just before the indicators turned dire.
Still a lot to learn but at least i am trading a plan.

CC,

In a post several pages ago you pasted up this chart and commented about the box with various trends from different timeframes in the top left corner.

Do you happen to have a name for that indicator or could you point me in the right direction for it please?



Well done with that fiber trade on Friday, btw. That was a good entry. I couldn't help but feel though that your exit strategy had a bit more to do with "thinking and hoping" rather than "seeing". Hope you don't mind me saying that.

the one I have is called _signal bars v3 daily.mq4.
I believe there is now an updated v7 but i don't know what the difference is.
I got mine from here post 1:
http://www.forex-tsd.com/suggestions-trading-systems/8728-follow-bouncing-pip.html

You will need to alter the settings in inputs to get rid of the extra details and move it to the left hand corner which i prefer and of course to alter the macd, ema and stoch settings to whatever suits you.


Exit strategy - I got to tell you that it seems like i'm going to make every mistake in the book at least once Hilary.
Despite all that banging away demo trading the cross of the zero line to introduce some discipline it went completely astray with real money on the exit. About 5 hours after i'd closed the trade I realised what i had done. I'd been trying to second guess where the market was going rather than taking what the market was prepared to give me based on my one indicator. Once i realised I was really cross with myself.
It seems crazy to be sitting here admitting that I did something different with my real money rather than my demo money but that is what i did. Stupid stupid thing to do but it just shows how psychology pays such a big part. I'm not going to make that mistake again though - no way.

With all my thinking I acheived +22. If I had just traded off the indicator I'd have made about +31. It would have been alot more relaxing and I'd have been able to spend my time looking at other things.


Next week i'm going to be totally in control and I succeed at that, then hopefully i'll be ready to move on to the next stage. Which no doubt i'll screw up first time as well ;-))))

My version of Metatrader (Alpari) doesn't do Sunday evenings. What about anyone else?

Depends on what you want Seymour. Alpari does do Sunday evenings but the Sunday candle gets included in the Monday candle whereas Northern Finance shows Sunday as a seperate candle.

Try drawing some trendlines and then watch were the support comes out in real time and i've discovered that some parties use a Sunday candle for drawing the trend lines and some don't.

I really really don't know what to make of the whole issue.

That's great, many thanks CC. I intend to "doctor" it in the hope that I will be able to get rid of a couple of other indicator windows and make my desktop easier to read.

Incidentally, ODL open just after 8pm on Sundays.

I like their newsflow too.

Hils

Thanks for your advice - I waited! Which as it happens seems quite a good move.

I always close everything too soon so I am just biding my time.

That was exciting......

Anyway a very profitable day, now to do some work.

Sue,

I'm not sure from your post whether you closed your cable short or not. Well done if you did manage to at a much lower price. Despite it wobbling over the last few days and making a new low, I'd still say from my dailies that it's heading up to give a fresh short entry from a higher level over the coming days and weeks.