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Oil firm above $115 on tropical storm, Russia tension

Tue 26 Aug 2008, 5:33 GMT

(Reuters) - Oil extended gains to stay above $115 a barrel on Tuesday, supported by worries that tropical storm Gustav in the Caribbean would turn into a hurricane and disrupt oil output in the Gulf of Mexico.

Crude for October delivery rose 37 cents to $115.48 a barrel by 0225 GMT, while London Brent crude gained 42 cents to $114.45 a barrel.

Tropical Storm Gustav, the seventh tropical storm formed in the central Caribbean, could strengthen into a hurricane before striking vulnerable Haiti, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

It was expected to hit Hispaniola, the island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, on Tuesday. At least one computer forecasting model showed the storm could enter the Gulf.

A drop in the dollar against the yen, pressured by sharp losses in the U.S. equities market, also helped buoy oil prices.

Jonathan Kornafel, Asia director at U.S.-based options trader Hudson Capital Energy, based in Singapore, said concerns about a possible hurricane had "a lot to do" with the gains in the past two days.

Support also came from ongoing tension between the West and Russia over Georgia and expectations that oil exporter group OPEC, which meets on September 9, could trim production should prices fall further.

"I think overall the trend of the market is bearish right now, but the hurricane premium as well as the Russia-NATO premium is what's keeping the market from dropping further," Kornafel said.

Russia's parliament urged the Kremlin on Monday to recognise two rebel regions of Georgia as independent states, raising alarm in the West.

Britain said on Monday it believed it would be wrong for all NATO-Russia contacts to be suspended despite widespread concern in the alliance about Russian military action in Georgia.

OPEC OUTPUT

Iran's oil minister said on Monday he expected OPEC to work on preventing the falling trend in crude prices and also to study oversupply in the market when it meets on September 9 in Vienna.

An OPEC source, however, said, the cartel is likely to keep oil output policy unchanged.

Another key piece of data on Wednesday will be U.S. crude oil inventories, which are likely to have risen 1.4 million barrels last week, a Reuters preliminary poll showed.

In the previous week, crude stocks shot up by 9.4 million barrels as crude imports rose after delivery delays caused by Tropical Storm Edouard.

The poll of eight analysts showed an average forecast for a 400,000-barrel gain in distillates.

Analysts expect U.S. gasoline stocks to show a drop of 2.8 million barrels, a fifth straight weekly decline, as refiners drained storage of summer-grade supply ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend, which marks the end of the summer driving season.

what do you think the floor for oil will be over the next few months. 90, 100$?

Worth watching bloomberg at 715-730pm as they report from Nymex which can indicate sentiment especially on a Wednesday from inventory reaction.Today they reported that Gustav was a worry as well as US/ Western escalations in tension and said that many traders would not want to be short over this weekend with Gustav potentially turning into a Katrina with associated platform evacuations and damage. On the other hand it may fizzle away to nothing. In brief perhaps not the best time to be short

You may be right.

I've got a feeling that one good hurricaine this year might see $147 a distant memory.

The rise earlier this year seems to have been due to a weak dollar and speculation on a massive scale with a bit of supply/demand thrown in. If there was a nasty hurricane, Ras Tanura and the straits of Hormuz got hit, we'd all become Chis Hoys!

AP Business Writer
Published: August 27, 2008

NEW YORK (AP) - Oil prices are rising after the government reported that U.S. crude supplies fell unexpectedly last week.
The Energy Information Administration says crude stockpiles fell slightly by 100,000 barrels to 305.8 million barrels for the week ending Aug. 22. That compared to the 1.5 million barrel increase forecast by analysts surveyed by Platts, an energy research firm.
The EIA also says gasoline stocks fell less than expected last week, dropping by 1.2 million barrels compared to the 2.8 million barrels analysts expected.
Supplies of distillates, which includes heating oil and diesel, were flat at 132.1 million barrels.
Light, sweet crude for October delivery is up $2.82 at $119.09 a barrel in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.


http://www.wsls.com/sls/business/consumer/article/oil_prices_rises_after_crude_supplies_fall_unexpectedly/16380/

Oil prices rise as Gustav threat looms
29 August 2008
LONDON (AFP) Oil prices rebounded on Friday as Tropical Storm Gustav risked becoming a hurricane once more and threatening energy production in the Gulf of Mexico, home to US refineries.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in October, jumped 1.40 dollars to 116.99 dollars per barrel in electronic deals.

London's Brent North Sea crude for October gained 1.15 dollars to 115.32 dollars per barrel.

British oil groups BP and Shell and US rival ConocoPhillips had Thursday evacuated workers from their energy installations in the Gulf of Mexico, as Gustav loomed.

ExxonMobil said it was preparing for the storm and "identifying personnel for possible evacuation to shore."

About a quarter of US crude oil installations are located in the Gulf of Mexico.

Oil prices had fallen sharply on Thursday as traders discounted the threat of the storm. But on Friday, Newedge energy analyst Ken Hasegawa warned: "Still we have to worry about the hurricane's effect on this market."

Tropical Storm Gustav battered Jamaica on Friday, dumping rain and ripping roofs off homes and threatened to grow into a hurricane after leaving 59 people dead in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Anxiety also grew on the US Gulf Coast on the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina and authorities in New Orleans were planning a possible mandatory evacuation to prevent a repeat of the devastation and deaths wreaked earlier.

Authorities in Louisiana and Mississippi have already declared states of emergency before Gustav's expected landfall late Monday as a hurricane.

Gustav had made landfall in Haiti on Tuesday as a Category One hurricane -- the lowest on the five-level Saffir-Simpson scale -- before weakening into a tropical storm.

Meanwhile, the eighth tropical storm of the hurricane season, dubbed Hanna, was churning in the Atlantic on Friday and has the potential to become a hurricane.

Informative map that BA, have you got one of where the rigs are please?

Afraid not, Stan, but the route will cut through probably the majority of the Golf Coast fields. They're no doubt downmanned by now

OK thanks, lets hope the damn thing runs out of puff.

MMS information on Gustav - production shut in.

Oil gains over $1 as Gustav shuts U.S. output
Mon 1 Sep 2008, 2:13 GMT

* Oil over $116 as Gustav shuts U.S. Gulf fields, refineries

* Gustav expected to make landfall mid-Monday as Category 3

* Some traders wait to weigh up damage in hurricane's wake (Updates prices, adds details)

By Fayen Wong

PERTH, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose more than $1 on Monday after energy firms in the U.S. Gulf shut down nearly all offshore oil output and a host of flood-prone coastal refineries ahead of Hurricane Gustav, the biggest threat since 2005's devastating Katrina.

But prices pared some bigger earlier gains as traders waited to see whether Gustav would leave lasting damage in its wake after it slams into the Louisiana coast later in the day as a major Category 3 hurricane.

U.S. light crude for October delivery rose $1.11 to $116.57 a barrel by 0303 GMT, having briefly surged above $118 a barrel when the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) opened for electronic trading several hours earlier than usual.

London Brent crude rose 97 cents to to $115.02.

U.S. RBOB gasoline futures outpaced crude gains to rise 5.08 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $2.9050 per U.S. gallon, as traders feared the refining sector could be harder hit.

But oil prices have still barely recovered from last month's over three-month low of nearly $111, with buyers cautious even after the steep slump from mid-July's record high $147.27.

"This is definitely a dangerous storm but I think most of the market is in a wait-and-see mode, waiting to see (if there are) disruptions to oil facilities and pipeline infrastructure before they make a big move," said Gerard Burg, a commodities analyst at the National Bank of Australia in Melbourne.

"Investors are a lot more cautious now, given the general bearish sentiment in the market."

Energy companies are taking no chances, shutting down more than 96 percent of U.S. Gulf oil production and 82 percent of natural gas output as of Sunday afternoon, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said. The Gulf normally pumps a quarter of all U.S. production and about 15 percent of its domestic natural gas.

At least nine oil refineries with a combined capacity of 2.2 million bpd were shut down and a half-dozen other refineries had reduced throughput because of the storm. [ID:nN31518910]

The shutdown of key infrastructure, including the Henry Hub delivery point and the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, prompted NYMEX on Sunday to declare force majeure on all delivery obligations under its August and September natural gas futures.

Forecasters predicted Gustav will make landfall west of New Orleans around midday on Monday, with top winds expected to be around 200 kph (125 mph), making it a Category 3 storm on the five-step intensity scale. (See [nN31508750] for more details)

GEOPOLITICS, OPEC IN BACKGROUND

Geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West also lent support to oil prices.

Russia does not want a confrontation with the West but will hit back if attacked, Kremlin leader Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday, a day before EU leaders meet to draft a response to Moscow's actions in Georgia. [ID:nLV125768]

Russia, the world's largest exporter of natural gas and the second-largest oil exporter, supplies more than a quarter of Europe's gas needs.

Iran's oil minister said on Sunday $100 a barrel was the lowest acceptable price for crude oil. Iran, the second-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has said the oil market is oversupplied in recent weeks as oil prices have plunged more than $30 a barrel from their peak.

OPEC meets in Vienna on Sept. 9 to discuss output policy but other member nations have not come out and publicly backed Iran. Venezuela and Ecuador said on Friday that they expect the oil exporters group to maintain current output levels.[ID:nN29457783] (Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

Oil price plunges as fears of Gustav devastation recede

By Sean Farrell
Tuesday, 2 September 2008

The price of oil plunged more than $4 yesterday as fears receded that Hurricane Gustav would inflict severe damage on the US oil sector when the storm weakened off the Louisiana coast.


The price of oil had jumped by more than $1 earlier in the day as US offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut down almost entirely ahead of Gustav's expected bombardment of the country's key oil production region.

Gustav weakened to a category two storm as it approached the coast near Port Fourchon, Louisiana, which supports 75 per cent of the Gulf's drilling operations.

US crude fell $4.19 to $111.27 a barrel in afternoon London trading yesterday as concerns about the potential damage from the storm were discounted.

Gustav had been forecast to hit the Gulf as a category four storm in the first test of the country's preparedness since Hurricane Katrina wreaked havoc in 2005. Trade in the United States was shut due to the US Labor Day holiday.

London Brent crude fell $4.31 to $109.74 a barrel.

At least 12.5 per cent of total US refining capacity was shut down ahead of the storm and other plants cut rates. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the only US port capable of offloading the biggest oil tankers, halted all operations.

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita wrecked more than 100 offshore oil platforms and closed many large refineries for months in the region, which houses a quarter of US oil output and 15 per cent of natural gas output.

Nearly two million people fled the Louisiana coast and more than 11 million residents in five American states were threatened by the storm.

Potential upward pressure on the oil price remains. Iran's oil minister said on Sunday that $100 a barrel was the lowest acceptable price for crude. Iran, Opec's second-largest producer, has said the oil market is oversupplied after prices dropped from July's record high of more than $147 a barrel.

5/09/2008

prices held relatively stable Friday, gaining 35 cents on the New York Mercantile Exchange to $106.65 per barrel.

The volatile commodity dropped $3.05 per barrel Thursday, as analysts predict oil will soon fall to less than $100 per barrel.

Heating oil prices fell slightly, down 0.0262 cents to $2.99 per gallon. Reformulated gasoline prices fell 0.0251 cents to $2.6999 per gallon, while natural gas prices rose slightly, up 0.109 cents to $7.46 per million British thermal units.

At the pump, U.S. motorists were paying an average of $3.674 for a gallon of regular, unleaded gasoline, down slightly from Thursday's $3.678, the AAA said. Gasoline prices have fallen from a peak of $4.114 on July 17 but remain well above the price of $2.807 per gallon from a year ago.

Oil surges $2 to near $109 on hurricane threat
Mon 8 Sep 2008, 5:37 GMT

(Reuters) - Oil jumped than $2 to near $109 a barrel on Monday, rebounding from a five-month low on worries that Hurricane Ike would tear through the Gulf of Mexico, and on hopes that a U.S. bailout of its top mortgage lenders would help temper an economic downturn.

Expectations that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ministers would leave agreed output targets unchanged at a meeting on Tuesday also lent support to prices that had slumped 10 percent over the past six sessions.

U.S. light crude for October delivery rose $2.49, or over 2.3 percent, to $108.72 by 0105 GMT, snapping a losing streak that knocked prices to their lowest since April after last week's Hurricane Gustav left most Gulf oil and gas facilities intact.

London Brent crude rose $2.21 to $106.30.

Hurricane Ike weakened to a Category 3 hurricane as it bore down on Cuba on Sunday, but was expected to retain strength, entering the Gulf of Mexico as a severe Category 4 storm, a U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency official said.

It may threaten Gulf energy rigs that account for a quarter of U.S. oil output and 15 percent of natural gas production. Nearly 80 percent of the Gulf's oil production remains shut in following Hurricane Gustav, and Ike's approach has forced Shell Oil Co. to stop returning workers to its platforms.

"There is a concern these storms could impact refineries and production more significantly than Gustav did and we might see more buying when London opens as investors cover themselves in case of damage," said Gerard Rigby, analyst at Fuel First Consulting in Sydney.

He said the U.S. government's weekend move to bail out mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also lent support, raising hopes that the latest effort to prop up the ailing housing market would help quell the credit market crisis that has pushed economies toward recession.

For more stories on the bail-out click:

A meeting of OPEC on Tuesday could support prices, but many analysts said it was unlikely that the producers' group would cut output to shore up oil prices.

"I don't think there will be any change from the meeting. There might be a lot of talk, especially from Venezuela, about production cuts, but I don't think we will see any," Rigby said.

OPEC is estimated to be pumping 790,000 barrels per day (bpd) above the collective ceiling of 29.67 million bpd for its 12 members with output limits, leaving some room for manoeuvre before it needs to consider any formal cut.

Hurricane Ike may affect oil prices
Wed, 10 Sep 2008 05:06:00 GMT



Texas braces itself for Hurricane Ike after the storm moved through Cuba and onto the Gulf of Mexico, threatening oil-rig operations.

Ike is rated a Category 1 storm strengthened with winds of 130 kph as it moved across the Caribbean. Meteorologists say Ike could muscle up to a Category 3 storm in the warm Gulf waters with winds of up to 178 kph.

Latest forecasts predict Ike's path leads to the middle of the Texas coast, skirting past the Gulf region which produces 25 percent of US oil and 15 percent of its gas. According to predictions, oil futures may decrease by more than $2 a barrel, to below $105.

New Orleans, hit by Hurricane Gustav only a week ago, will be spared a visit by Ike.

Ike charged into eastern Cuba Sunday at 195 kph and left a trail of destruction across the island, barely giving authorities and residents any time to prepare after still trying to pick up the pieces following Gustav's charge across the island.

Electricity grids, buildings and crops were severely damaged and destroyed by Ike and after pelting down 40 centimeters of rain, the storm moved away leaving an aftermath of flooding on Tuesday.

Four fatalities have been reported so far in Cuba because of Ike and 2.6 million people were evacuated ahead of the storm's arrival.

JC/BGH

Oil rebounds on move by OPEC 10/09/2008
From wire reports

NEW YORK After closing Tuesday below $104 a barrel for the first time since early April, oil prices jumped in New York on the OPEC presidents call to stop overproducing and match output to the groups set limits.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries left its production target unchanged at 28.8 million barrels a day after concluding its meeting in Vienna. Bringing output in line with the limits would lower supplies by 520,000 barrels a day, President Chakib Khelil said.

"Its definitely a defensive measure to keep prices above $100," said Jonathan Kornafel, a director for Asia at Hudson Capital Energy. "They dont want to see us go back to $140 or $150, but they want us over $100. Its a bit of a shock to the market, and thats why were up."

Oil prices rallied after OPECs announcement, rising as much as 1.4 percent to $104.67 in aftermarket trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Prices fell earlier Tuesday, hitting a five-month low of $101.74 in aftermarket trading, as traders bet that Hurricane Ike would miss crucial Gulf Coast oil installations.

Oil bounces above $103, weighing Ike vs dollar
Thu 11 Sep 2008, 5:31 GMT


SINGAPORE - Oil prices bounded above $103 a barrel on Thursday after falling to another five-month low the previous day, drawing support from Hurricane Ike and OPEC's surprise output cut while wary traders watched the U.S. dollar.

The dollar briefly touched a new one-year high against the euro on Thursday but weakened versus the yen, lending a touch of support to a commodities complex that has been battered by the unwinding of the short-dollar/long-commodities trade.

U.S. light crude for October delivery firmed 72 cents to $103.30 a barrel by 0547 GMT, after rallying more than $1 earlier in the session.

That came after it dropped as low as $101.36 a day earlier after the pressure of a rising dollar and concerns about global demand outweighed earlier bullish news that OPEC had agreed to cut output by about 500,000 bpd.

London Brent crude rose 48 cents to $99.45 a barrel.

"While OPEC has certainly drawn a line in the sand around the $100 level, it remains to be seen if the cartel can actually achieve the cuts outlined in the announcement," said Jonathan Kornafel, Asia director at U.S.-based options trader Hudson Capital Energy.

Oil prices have tumbled 30 percent since hitting a record high above $147 a barrel three months ago, a descent barely slowed by a pair of hurricanes whipping through the U.S. Gulf, home to a quarter of U.S. oil production.

Oil companies kept shut almost all U.S. offshore production for a second week and began shutting coastal refineries in Texas as Hurricane Ike headed toward the key U.S. energy hub.

Oil output from the region was less than 5 percent of normal as Ike approached just over a week after Hurricane Gustav spun through the same area.

Combined, Gustav and Ike have reduced Gulf production by 14.1 million barrels of oil, 67.9 billion cubic feet of natural gas, cutting into both fuel and crude oil inventories.

U.S. refinery utilisation plunged to 78.3 percent of total capacity in the week ending September 5, the lowest level since October 2005 when hurricanes Katrina and Rita ravaged Gulf coast refineries, data showed on Wednesday.

Prices also fell on Wednesday after the International Energy Agency cut its world oil demand forecasts for this year and the next as high prices and mounting economic troubles drive consumers and businesses to conserve..

U.S. oil demand is already running about 3.8 percent below last year, according to government data.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices fell Thursday, testing a 5-month low, as the market remained focused on the stronger dollar and slumping demand but also watched the threat that Hurricane Ike poses to the Texas Gulf Coast.

Crude futures traded down $2.03 at $100.55 a barrel, having been as low as $100.18 earlier.

On Wednesday, U.S. light sweet crude for October delivery settled down 68 cents to $102.58 a barrel, the lowest closing price since April 1.