Thread designed to record set-ups and targets on index and FX pairs.
'A market is only your enemy until you understand it, then it becomes your best friend.'








Any questions, please feel free to ask.

From time to time i may openly state an opinion regarding direction of a set-up and wish to add that in no way am i recommending a trade. I am sometimes only in trades for a matter of minutes and can't always update as to entry/exits taken.
As always, markets are dangerous places to be and must be respected as such. Always use stop losses and never over-leverage; 3% of your pot as a maximum per trade. As always, YOU are responsible for your own trades! Happy pip hunting!

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Respite for the markets. This is a perfect 5w count;

Davai - 15 May 2012 21:27 - 8189 of 8202

I do have a primary target for the Dow;



Update;

Get ready for a small pullback on the Dow;

12,500, 138.2% fib obvious target. Round number and was support yesterday, therefore, def resistance today

Further to post 94, for extra confirmation of the end of the 5th wave, (not that its needed in this instance), but... draw a line connecting bottom of waves 2&4, then drag a parallel line touching end of wave 3, wave 5 will usually slightly exceed the line;

My plan to work to for the summer;

(need to move the red 'B' across to incorporate the wedge, leaving red 'C' as a 5w down)

A perfect trade;



After a recent short target was reached on the above chart, coinciding with my Cad target (above) and the Dow twin Fib targets, i was suspecting a bounce;

(Davai - 18 May 2012 08:37 - 94 of 98

'Respite for the markets. This is a perfect 5w count;'),

So we watch for an ABC. The important part is that 'A' breaches the last significant high, (as shown by the blue line in the above chart), now we wait for 'B' to retrace and then turn back upwards, to start wave 'C'. This will be in 5 waves. With that knowledge, we wait for wave 1 to end and draw our fib levels, wave 2 should retrace in 3 minor waves and bounce off of one of those fib levels. we can now draw a flagline starting from the top of 'A' and touching the top of wave 1. Using my system, i get a trigger upon breakout where i can determine a target price for the set-up. Stop is a pip below the lowest point of the pullback ('B'), target is equal distance away from entry, thus a risk:reward of 1:1, but very high probability. This rises still further when you look at the fib level of 261.8%. This is often a target off of wave 1 for either the end of the 3rd wave or even the whole 5 waves, look how it is identical to my system generated target...
It looks like this is ABC of A, followed by tonights drop being ABC of 'B', so a larger 5 wave C to come over next couple of days, this should also mean higher yet for index's before one more drop...

Trending perfectly and reversing after each target is achieved;

Davai - 24 May 2012 10:11 - 8240 of 8247

My current thoughts are with my original chart of last night. We have just played out an abc 4th, which was far longer in timescale due to overnight futures. We head up for a 5th and then back down in an abc corrective (probably tonight), this would mean much higher early next week;



(with regards to above comments; i forgot that it is Thursday today! Tomorrow should be a big up day, prob Mon/Tues for reversal back down, but too early to tell just yet...

Update to above, (as of last night);



This morning has also seen a spritely start!

Ok, was expecting a normal 5w impulse move for C, but now looks more likely a diagonal;

(copied across from the other thread)

Davai - 26 May 2012 10:15 - 8257 of 8257

Look how easily the pattern changes hinged on the length of the (iv)th, its now likely to be an expanding diagonal;



I do have a system target of 1348, but watching with interest as we are in an ABC counter-trend move and thus i don't have enough evidence yet to call that with conviction... If it does reach that level, it will surely reverse thereabouts...

The Loonie also looks like down from the open on Sunday night, (dollar weakness = markets up);

NzdUsd leading the way tonight and similar to the above index chart predictions;

Update to above;

Remember this?;

Davai - 27 Apr 2012 19:48 - 65 of 107

the Dow plan;



Well i think we may have reached the bottom, (speculative for sure right now and need evidence)

Davai - 10 Jun 2012 22:18 - 8343 of 8343

Here are my current thoughts as to the Dow. The FIB levels are reproduced from the length of 'A' (not seen to the left of the chart), it looks as though we have completed a full ABC retrace within the uptrend, with the first part ('A') of the correction starting 27th March. This is of course, speculative, but the FIB levels have been deadly accurate for the whole of wave C.
I'm looking for the last Lower High (prev wave 4 as per chart), to be breached tonight/tomorrow for further confirmation, then we can look for a large ABC retrace to begin. This can be sharp/shallow, zigzag/flat or irregular, but if it forms a clear 3-3-5/5-3-5 and doesn't make a fresh low, we are in business for a Higher High to come in a month or so's time and higher for the rest of the summer at least...

Sound crazy with everyone expecting new lows with all the Spain/Euro probs??? Yep that's how it will catch everyone out. I would expect the ABC to be a deep zigzag, just to scare everyone, but if no LL, we are good to go.

here's the chart;

Well, after identifying the recent 5w advance, it is clear that it wasn't followed up by a typical ABC retrace (as per above). Instead, we got a faster 'B' wave pullback and another 5w advance ('C') to follow. This may have already completed, or perhaps have one last move up to go.
If this is correct and it certainly looks it right now, we could be about to start a very nasty sell off. Possibly a couple thousand points to come off of the Dow in the coming weeks...

Adding to that, the Euro appears to be rolling over. Time to look for a small 5-3 move (down and retrace)...

Cable should start to look sick soon too;

Now the Audi joins in, reflex point breached by a full pip, trend changes to short. Look for an ABC retrace back up now to get short;

Nzd, likely outcome;