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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

overgrowth - 09 Jun 2005 10:12 - 94 of 1009

skyhigh - you just need a little patience, everything has been coming into place just recently to create a launchpad which will propel RTD to the next level. I don't think it will be too long now before we see the price shifting sharply up through the 30's.

pachandl - 09 Jun 2005 11:35 - 95 of 1009

O/G - agreed. However it is often hard for a re-rating to occur at this time of year. Certainly I can see PIs pushing the price up on news, agm etc but a true re-rating that takes account of future revenue growth over the next 3 years may not happen until after summer.

overgrowth - 09 Jun 2005 16:42 - 96 of 1009

I've been dabbling with the free (today only) level 2 on advfn, it's benn interesting to see that KLWT are happily absorbing loads of sells - looks as though they've a large buy order to fill.

A fairly hefty 'T' transaction at close again also. Are the insti's topping up again ?

Fundamentalist - 09 Jun 2005 17:17 - 97 of 1009

OG

If you go to the threads at the top of the investors room page you will find moneyam letting you have level 2 free for a week!! i spot someone looking to capitalise on advfns outage yesterday! :-)

Fred1new - 09 Jun 2005 17:32 - 98 of 1009

Fundy, was that your buy at 14.31 of 400,000? Are you dribbling you profits from February back in. I think the level 2 free is demo only or I cocked it up. But even the demo is far to fast for me.

I like making a decision and then doing nothing.

Fundamentalist - 09 Jun 2005 17:35 - 99 of 1009

Fred

its definitely 1 week free trial - you must have cocked it up :-)

not my 400k im afraid - still on the sidelines.

Redid my figures the other night having re-read the annual report - planning to be back in before half yr results

edit: Fred - if you tried to access after hours you will just get the demo - it'll only be live in trading hours (if like the last time they had a free trial)

Fred1new - 09 Jun 2005 17:54 - 100 of 1009

Fundy, As usual you are picking up all my mistakes and faults. Found my way in to correct page, only a couple of hours to late. I will have another look to-morrow.

However, I think you could be useful to me. My kids are beginning to feel I shouldn't be let out without a minder. But my guess your charges would be too much for me.

Anyway, I think RTD is looking positive, but I would like a bit more volume. But I have made decision to hold onto what I have.

Have a nice evening.

Douggie - 09 Jun 2005 18:44 - 101 of 1009

what chance a tic up early tomorow....?????????????????????..;o\

overgrowth - 09 Jun 2005 18:47 - 102 of 1009

Well, it is a Friday after all...

Douggie - 10 Jun 2005 09:10 - 103 of 1009

nil tic up so far!!!!!......;o/

mournin all ;-\

overgrowth - 10 Jun 2005 11:55 - 104 of 1009

Well, I can't see this moneyam l2 freebie - all I can see is the demo still - has it finished ?

m0dulus - 10 Jun 2005 11:57 - 105 of 1009

Any reason for the slowness in RTD

overgrowth - 10 Jun 2005 12:11 - 106 of 1009

m0dulus - no fundamental reason whatsoever - recent newsflow all indicates that RTD are in line to produce forecast busting growth again.

RTD buyers tend to flock in when the price is rising - which is a very odd phenomenon.

Significant price rises which kick off the momentum seem to be caused by technical indicators more than anything else as a lot of folks have been trading its ups and downs. There are a lot of traders following the Elliot waves religiously and are hoping for a real bargain top up at 24p ish before the next wave completes at 37p.

Lots of people have been looking at RTD's historical chart performance also, and will have noted that there is normally a massive rally which tends to start kicking off around August time.

IMHO we're going to be moving next back into the 30's, though I suspect that there are some large institutional buys waiting to come through on the back of the Voca/MiPay deal which is likely to bring in significant revenue for RTD and allow them to compete with the likes of NLR. Hence the MMs are currently keeping the spread level and soaking up all the sells to meet the large orders - this is why we seem to have reached a stalemate.

RTD will blast upwards very soon - hang on in there.

m0dulus - 10 Jun 2005 12:20 - 107 of 1009

OG

u think in short term we can see it move into the 30's but whats the long term scenerio and in what period of time do u think it can be achieved.

overgrowth - 10 Jun 2005 12:35 - 108 of 1009

My Longer term targets are:

End of 2005 50p
End of 2006 1
End of 2008 1.50-2.00 + dividends

I believe that RTD are in the right place at the right time, with world-beating clients, best of breed technology and a solid management team.

Of course, with a prospect so attractive they will also become a target for predators from the US and may get taken out by a large US corporation over the next 2 years - if so, you can be sure that shareholders will be offered a decent price somewhere along the lines of my target prices (or possibly more).

Fundamentalist - 10 Jun 2005 12:51 - 109 of 1009

OG

Based on a Pe of 20, to achieve your forecasts the company will need to generate the following post tax profits ( i have used post acc changes profit):

End 2005: 7.25m
End 2006: 15m
End 2008: 22.25m-30m

Last yr results were turnover of 32m with profits of 4.1m (was 3.1m prior to acc changes)


Personally think your forecasts are on the optimistic side, though as we all know, calculating how much the growth in internet (and fraud) transactions will add to growth in revenue/profits is difficult to calculate and key to the forward valuation and share price of the company



overgrowth - 10 Jun 2005 13:02 - 110 of 1009

Fundy - thanks for putting the figures to those prices.

The way RTD are growing I think those profits are achievable, though even if they are slightly less I wouldn't mind betting that sentiment will still have the sp up around my target levels (don't they say that the market is always a year ahead in its valuation ?).

Fundamentalist - 10 Jun 2005 13:06 - 111 of 1009

OG

no probs - helps me to clarify what i and others think is achievable. As you know im still looking to get back in, struggling to understand the current price activity.

As you say, i have worked on a fixed pe 0f 20, though if as you say they are delivery 50%-100% profit increases then they would justify a higher pe rating.

Just notice my figures are slightly overstated - should be:

2005: 7.25m
2006: 14.5m
2008: 21.75 - 29m

Fred1new - 10 Jun 2005 13:28 - 112 of 1009

9/10/2005 is seems a long way a way. But I have just had a look at atticipated EPS from comdirect and Sharescope and Barclays. They seem to be giving slightly lower figures but I don't think they are building in the effects of Macy's and Bloomingdale's, advances in fuel card returns, or Voca and Mi-Pay.

My "guesses" or are they "hopes" are similar to overgrowth.

Fred1new - 10 Jun 2005 13:37 - 113 of 1009

Information request. I think the majority of RTD output is based on Software rather than hardware. If so the rate of growth now that the basic R+D has been done should be increasing in speed. Fundy tell me I am not wrong.
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