Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

I'm still indecisively short

Hey ho

should have closed at 1.94 like Hils said - problem is I'm working with no access to trade!

This is the 4 hour cable chart since the end of last year. The indicator is a stochastic of MACD which does everything that MACD does as well as measuring how overbought or oversold the market is.

You can use it to easily identify the highs and lows of the legs. It's pretty clear that since November it's been making progressively lower highs and lows.



This most recent high last week was higher than the previous high. It remains to be seen yet whether the overnight low can be confirmed as a higher low on the H4 chart because the indicator hasn't yet started to move up. If it does start to inch up today, we're certainly in for a retest of the 1.9950 level and it could easily sail on past this if the MPC don't cut rates this week. They're a law unto themselves and the market has clearly priced in a cut, but I don't see any reason for them to cut just to appease Joe Public all the time that inflation (which is the primary part of their mandate) is not going down.

hi everyone, hope your all keeping well.

Havent looked in for quite a while, been having an excellent time enjoying life as a saisonaire. Had a bit of a nasty fall last week, split my calf muscle, see the doctor tomorrow and find out what the ultrasound scans show. Might be back trading sooner than I thought!

cc notice not much mention of candles, theres some excellent education stuff on interpreting candles for fx which I found a great help and gave me alot more information on the chart i was looking at. Unfortunately the information is on a computer thats in spain. One of the guys was dan gramza(auwful voice), think they were education webinars on cbot, certainly one of the american exchanges

Would be really keen to attend an fx getogether if thats still on the cards, out here until end of season unless its bad news tomorrow. Near airport would be good for me.

Goforit, my wife tore/separated calf muscle skiing on Christmas day 2001 (no alcohol involved). Key to still skiing (age nearly 54) was MUSCLE MASSAGE rather than any physiotherapy etc

still short

Still pondering!

What time is the bank decision?

Closed it at last 1.9440

Watch it fall now!

Sue,

I'm sure that there will be an opportunity to short cable down for a longer term trade from a higher level over the coming days/weeks. The tell-tale signal will come from when the 4 Hour chart has risen to a point of being overbought and then starting to tick down.

For now though, the 1 hour chart continues to make lower highs and lows and, as oversold as the 4 hour chart is, it won't start to push up from a low until the 1 hour chart has bottomed itself. The 1.9336 low from 22nd Jan has not been breached yet and that represents the last low on the 4 hour chart for the time being.

I've tried to explain my point with a couple of pretty pictures.

1 Hour chart

4 Hour chart

Hils thanks - I had quite a funny exit actually as I have 2 accounts & I accidentally bought a position in the other account instead of closing my short - at 1.9463. It then dropped to 1.9440 so I closed the short & then closed the long when it went back to 1.9470

My gut reaction is that longer term it's a short but I don't want to sit out another rise to 2.15 - so happy with nothing open at the moment - I will look for a new short entry.

I love your charts with the explanations - many thanks. All I can see is a big head & shoulders which looks complete!!

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The euro strengthened against the dollar early Tuesday in New York after billionaire investor Warren Buffett revealed an offer to reinsure municipal bond portfolios, and on the back of some grit from euro-zone officials.

The euro reached an intraday high of $1.4585 and Y156.56 early Tuesday morning. The dollar also hit Y107.54 after Buffett, in an interview on CNBC, said his Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA BRKB) holding company offered up to $800 billion in municipal bonds to bond insurers Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK), MBIA Inc. (MBI) and FGIC. Buffett says one firm rejected his offer and he is still waiting to hear from the other two.

Sentiment was also boosted by news that six major mortgage lenders, including Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC), have a plan to ease foreclosures. That helps currencies with higher interest rates to gain against their lower-yielding competitors as investors take riskier bets.

But the scope of the euro's lead indicates a bias for dollar buying and demonstrates that the single currency is under pressure from actions to stimulate the U.S. economy by the Federal Reserve and U.S. government, said Stuart Bennett, senior foreign exchange strategist at Calyon Credit Agricole CIB in London.

Early Tuesday in New York, the euro was at $1.4538 from $1.4522 late Monday, while the dollar was at Y107.37 from Y106.91. The euro was at Y156.10 from Y155.26 late Monday. The U.K. pound was at $1.9523 from $1.9505, according to EBS, while the dollar was at CHF1.1026 from CHF1.1018 late Monday.

UBS data signal that clients' demand for the dollar is growing and the greenback is just one of three major currencies, along with the Canadian dollar and U.K. pound, enjoying long positioning on a four-week net basis.

"These trends support our view that clients seeking protection from a more pronounced global downturn will increasingly turn to dollar funds for safety," said Alina Anishchanka, currency strategist at UBS in London. Investors are favoring "the currencies with central banks that are ahead of the curve and are cutting rates to support growth," she said.

At the same time, currency markets are also subdued in the absence of major economic releases Monday or Tuesday. January retail sales out Wednesday will be the week's first big data event.

In a meeting of finance ministers Tuesday, the current euro-zone president, Slovene Finance Minister Andrej Bajuk, said economic growth in the European Union is slowing but will be close to potential in 2008.

Slovenia holds the rotating presidency of the E.U. for the first six months of the year.

The E.U.'s finance ministers were again quick to highlight the economic differences between the euro zone and the U.S.

"There are no big macroeconomic imbalances in the European economy," Bajuk said. "The housing sector, the capital markets are not facing the same issues as in the U.S."

Also, a survey released Tuesday from the Center for European Economic Research, or ZEW, showed sentiment among German financial analysts and institutional investors unexpectedly improved in February, albeit slightly.

The ZEW think tank's economic expectations index increased to -39.5 points from -41.6 points in January - above economists' forecasts of -45.0 points.

A day earlier, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole acknowledged that the risks of a recession have increased in the U.S., but said that the "best bet is that we won't have a recession."

A new plan encouraged by the Bush administration, dubbed Project Lifeline, is part of the effort. The lenders promise to seek contact with homeowners who are 90 or more days overdue on their mortgages. In some cases, homeowners will be given the chance to "pause" their foreclosure for 30 days while lenders try to work out a way to make the loans affordable. Lenders could begin sending letters to these borrowers as soon as this week. Homeowners wouldn't qualify for the program if they are in bankruptcy, if they already have a foreclosure date within 30 days or if the loan was for an investment or vacant property.

Unlike the bailout plan announced in December, this latest effort is to involve all kinds of home loans, not just subprime mortgages.

Overnight, the biggest mover during the European session was the U.K. pound, which fell sharply on news that U.K. inflation rose less than feared to 2.2% last month, from 2.1% in December, despite forecasts of a rise to 2.4%.

This will help to ease some of the recent pressure on the Bank of England not to cut interest rates. Not only did the latest producer price figures Monday show that factory gate prices rose by 5.7%, instead of just by 5.1% as expected, but the latest retail sales survey from the BRC showed a 2.6% rise on a like for like basis, the largest increase since September.

Elsewhere, Japanese markets re-opened Tuesday after a national holiday.

Late Tuesday, the regional San Francisco Fed president will speak at 11:05 a.m. EST (1605 GMT) and the January Federal Budget will be released at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT).

Hmmm ... that Mr Buffett - he's a one.

Did you know that the advice of the good old guardians of our well-being, those nice UK government people, limits an adult's salt consumption to no more than 6g a day :o)

Call options, anyone?

The 4 hour cable chart shows that it is still rising and there could easily be a fair bit more mileage in it yet. There is, however, resistance at around 1.9740 (red line on piccie) which could pose a bit of a problem first. If it can get through that then a retest of the 1.9950 region representing the previous 4 hour high has got to be on the cards.

I want to go short again!!!

I suspect you'll get a good opportunity to sell into the rally back up above 1.97 at the beginning of next week, Sue.

Hilary, if there is going to be a rise up back over 1.97 next week why did the /$ rate fall so much last night?
My rudimentary understanding of economics accords with what you say. With a lower interst rate in the US than here and reduced liklihood of early cuts in the UK the should be rise in vs $. This indicates a rise back over 1.97 but not yesterday.
Thoughts?

It's got naff all to do with economics, TT. It's what the traffic lights and the squiggly lines on my chart suggest.

edit: Did it fall last night? I'm sure it was 1.9720 at about 7am. That's only a handful (actually two handfuls and a footful) off yesterday's high.

I'll be back next week or the week after - just a bit too busy with my business atm.

Should I go short yet???????????????????????????????????????


Isn't anyone trading Fx?

By these charts, I would say not short just yet. But then again, I am a complete novice.

Daily downtrendline above, test recent continuation head and shoulders, constrained under 50ma, lower highs might all suggest soon taking the short side.
Short under 9714 or run for the hills long above 98??? (sorry those are march contract prices)

The H4 suggests to me that it's got higher to go on this leg, although the faster timeframes suggest there could be a bit of short term unwinding first.

Remember as well that it's only the rising support line from 2006 which has been breached. The support line from 2002 is still intact, currently at around 1.88.

Downside at the moment also seems to be limited at just below 1.94. Three times it's banged on that door in the last month and it's been turned away each time.