From the Telegraph
A story is one of the most powerful drivers in the stock market
Aim-listed BioProgress is one of the best current examples. This company has developed a range of patented methods to replace conventional gelatine pills, which could revolutionise pharmaceutical drugs and dietary supplements. Its technology has other applications and major companies are signing agreements. Since BioProgress floated on Aim 16 months ago the story has seized attention and created strong momentum in its shares. In nine months, the price soared from 22p to near 160p.
Notice how a story is most potent when a share has little or no financial record. Last Wednesday, BioProgress declared interims to end-June that showed a gross profit of 430,000 on turnover of 992,000, but a pre-tax loss of 3.8m as the company continues to invest in development. Since underlying progress looks promising, this attractive story means that at 131p, a share BioProgress is capitalised at 152m.
But the lack (as yet) of a benchmark for financial value meant bear raiders hammered the shares down to 57p recently. Unless you know what you are doing and can stomach the risks and volatility, this is how private investors become easy meat.
I treat a share as speculative where it is hard to be sure of the financial values. I prefer not to be weighted in speculative shares, as they get hit worst of all in a general financial panic or bear market. You never quite know when or from where the next shock will come.
But enterprising players can still scrutinise a good story and consider what aspects of the business make the risks worth taking. BioProgress continues to win customers and its licensing approach is attractive. Yet valuing the company remains subjective. The shares are a market makers' dream, heavily traded.
To me, a sensible approach is to recognise the extent you want to engage in speculation. It can have a place in your portfolio, so long as you are adept at trading and apply discipline such as stop losses. But avoid chasing a lot of exciting stories, which lead to high transaction costs and a capital gains tax accounting headache. It is all very well thinking: "If only I'd made that switch" in hindsight. You can make astute trades in the short term yet end up no better (or even worse) off, flitting from one story to the next.
As for BioProgress, be mindful that some of its ardent holders promoting the shares do not recognise risks. Perhaps a reason why the shares don't get a lot of coverage is that unless a commentator proclaims: "Five pounds by Christmas!", he is liable to face an angry mob of BioProgress enthusiasts. Life is too short for this.
A story is one of the most powerful drivers in the stock market | Can history not be repeated? | Oil still rising
Can history not be repeated?
Superscape, the interactive 3D software group, is a useful example how a story can adapt and revive.
It is usually best to sell shares in a loss-making company as soon as its story changes for the worse. Superscape's 10-year chart shows the depths to be avoided, even if it means selling into a 20 to 30 per cent fall.
Some investors admit their worst mistakes have been buying a share after it had fallen, only to realise it is a chronic poor performer. Superscape's chart illustrates this, despite showing how alertness to the changing story can yield big gains for traders.
Superscape's technology has existed for some 20 years and it has yet to deliver any profit. The company owes its continuing existence to the goodwill of investors who have kept refinancing it. But this time around I genuinely believe Kevin Roberts and his team have a winning strategy.
Well, I would say that, wouldn't I, as a holder. But like BioProgress the extent of commercial momentum (in recent news, and underlying prospects) improves the probability that this is now a growth share.
Once again the challenge is valuation. At 44.5p Superscape is capitalised at 55m, which initially seems high enough while the market for mobile gaming (the group's current focus) is evolving. It is vast but liable to change, and the time-honoured principle applies that until there is a financial record it is hard to judge how the story boils down to earnings.
Superscape's broker projects a 5.3m loss in the year to end-January 2005 improving to a 700,000 loss in 2005/06. There may be better news; the snag is that it may not be in Superscape's commercial interests to reveal much about the deals it is signing when announcing interims on October 15.
Although the guessing game is likely to continue, I intend to stay with this share.
http://tinyurl.com/6b8s7