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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

hilary - 12 Mar 2008 13:09 - 9483 of 11056

I think you've got to keep an open mind on cable atm, FF. I'm playing the 5-minute chart on it which says long right now, but if it turns I'll happily short it.

As it happens, it might be turning down with the latest failure at 2.02 as I type. We'll see.

edit: 13:14. I've switched to short.

FreemanFox - 12 Mar 2008 13:21 - 9484 of 11056

Thanks Hils.

On most timeframes it's saying long right now though it is getting very congested and I can see it is at the point of decision and could easily plummet down. Still, got to stick with what I see so keeping long open, at least for a little bit longer.

Whatever's happening in the budget doesn't seem to be making any difference one way or another.

I don't know how you do it trading off 5-min charts. Impressive. I like very short-term day trading/scalping but I just can't seem to ever get it to work with Forex.

Do you usually trade in the very short term or do you mix it with longer time frames as well?

hilary - 12 Mar 2008 13:44 - 9485 of 11056

FF,

The 5-minute chart has given me 5 cable trades so far today since 7am starting with a short and I've just reversed the position each time the indicator has turned. It doesn't always give that many trades (yesterday was just 3 between 7am and 6:15pm) and, in any event, 5 trades in nearly 7 hours is hardly prolific and it certainly isn't scalping.

I like to be able to get a trade sufficiently into profit so as to walk away and let the slower timeframes run their course. Given the fact that it's been ranging for the last 6 weeks and now is meeting resistance at 2.02 that simply isn't practical at the moment.

Seymour Clearly - 12 Mar 2008 13:52 - 9486 of 11056

In a Euro Jappy long at the moment, will have to walk away with an OCO in place as I'm going to be busy now. Was going to long cable after that last drop, looks like I might have picked the wrong one !!

FreemanFox - 12 Mar 2008 14:07 - 9487 of 11056

Really interesting. You called that last short term declline virtaully spot on. Though bit of a bounce now.

Do you ever set price targets or get out for other reasons, or is it always get out and reverse on a reverse signal?

Does, that mean that by definition if you are entering and reversing on the same signal that you are always in the market?

Sorry for all the questions but I'd like to undersatnd more about the very short term trading on Forex as it's something I looked at before but discounted. I came to the conclusion that it was a little bit too 'spikey' at times but obviously I was wrong and it can be done.

hilary - 12 Mar 2008 14:21 - 9488 of 11056

FF,

The idea is to be always in the market, but it doesn't always work like that.

I actually find trading very boring. I know it gives some people an adrenalin rush, but for me it's simply the best way I know of making money whilst keeping my clothes on. As a result, my attention drifts and I miss entries sometimes. Then I just go to the shops or for a swim or a workout and return when I feel like it. I generally start each day bright and early with the best intentions and go from there according to how long I can last out.

As for price targets, I'm extremely conscious of support and resistance levels and lines, but I don't say "right, I'm going to this at such and such a level". If the market reacts at a certain level, I'll just give it a bit of time to decide and then go with the flow. For instance, yesterday it didn't like 1.9990 because that was the top of the previous channel which had turned to support. I waited to see if it could get through it, which it couldn't, so I then reversed once it started to go back up.

Hope that helps.

FreemanFox - 12 Mar 2008 15:10 - 9489 of 11056

Thanks for that Hils,

Your story is very similar to mine as I find trading really boring too. In my case, I look to enter only 1, possibly 2 trades a day looking to catch the main trend of the day. I prefer to sit and monitor the trade while it is open but often I get bored and pop out, leaving limit orders.

I'd like to learn how to trade a bit more frequent through the day with Forex, hence the questions, as at least it would give me a little bit more to do!!

You mention that you reversed once it started to go back up yesterday - does that mean there are times a discretionary element to your trading?

PS. Really does look like cable wants to go up at the moment. Or is that only wishful thinking on my behalf!?

hilary - 12 Mar 2008 15:26 - 9490 of 11056

I don't do discretion, FF.

:o)

This is a screenshot of the M5 chart that I was looking at yesterday with the stoch of MACD indicator that I mentioned previously. You can also see the light blue line which is the top of the aforementioned channel that it broke out from a few days ago.

I've circled in red the 1 simple reason that I went long when I did.

johngtudor - 12 Mar 2008 15:29 - 9491 of 11056

I feel sure Hils gets a 'high' when she runs up the pips, whatever she might say! She has a great top down approach to trading Forex, (although only shows us her legs!) using the 5 min for entries (I think) and lining up all the trade confirmations before taking the plunge. She also likes high risk stuff as well as she regularly goes Skiing! Follow Hils plan FF and you will get hooked!

johngtudor - 12 Mar 2008 15:36 - 9492 of 11056

Hils is also fantastically helpful and hence makes this msg board one of the best there is for Forex.

hilary - 12 Mar 2008 15:39 - 9493 of 11056

Incidentally, this is the 5-minute EUR/JPY chart that Seymour will have been looking at when he went long a bit earlier. I've circled in red the reason (I hope) that he went long.

FreemanFox - 12 Mar 2008 15:46 - 9494 of 11056

Thanks JT,

I'm certainly going to do some research on what works best on the lower time frames after Hils comments. Like I say I'd previously discounted it, but obvioulsy a bit prematurely.

I'll stick with my current style for live trading for now but start researching the 5 minute time frame as well. Certainly gives me something to do during the boring periods!.

Great day for me today. Blown through the earlier highs that I was projecting it would do, though it has been a grind. Not selling yet though as I think it has a lot further to go particularly if it finishes today above where it is now.

Seymour Clearly - 12 Mar 2008 15:58 - 9495 of 11056

Dead right Hils, and closed it out at 159.00.

johngtudor - 12 Mar 2008 16:03 - 9496 of 11056

FF I too use the 5 min for all entries except when I am trading news and then it's a lower timeframe. Just set out your Trading Rules and stick to them, noting changes as things work or otherwise. Best to start early like Hils just before 0700 for the the Fft open and then you are set for London. Depends on your goals, I like to have a fixed target of pips a day and then go do something else. However sometimes you get sucked into riding a trade, and then I peel off the risk and move the SL to cover the trade. Up to you of course and everyone is different that's what makes this so interesting.

FreemanFox - 12 Mar 2008 16:19 - 9497 of 11056

Thanks for the comments JT,

Your dead right about the points you make. I have a Trading Plan, up early and have the discipline to follow it all through and it works for me.

Just have to spend some time on the short-term timeframes and come up with something that works there.

Incidently, where do you get a Stochastic indicator that can be plotted over a MACD for MT4. I've search around and can't find one.

FreemanFox - 12 Mar 2008 16:50 - 9498 of 11056

Thanks Hils :-)

hodgins - 12 Mar 2008 21:08 - 9499 of 11056

Good returns on the stoch of MACD philosophy today it seems. Would the users of it regard it as just as worthwhile on bit longer timeframes???

FreemanFox - 13 Mar 2008 07:42 - 9500 of 11056

Analysis spot on with cable wanting to go a lot higher, unfortunately execution c!*p.

Closed out my cable long yesterday evening, was happy with my profits and was expecting to be able to re-enter this morning on a pullback. Looks like I may have missed the boat today, so will spend some time today researching trading on 5 min charts.

hilary - 13 Mar 2008 07:57 - 9501 of 11056

It isn't a holy grail. It's simply a different way of depicting the MACD which I happen to think makes it easy to read. In particular, it makes it very easy to identify the highs and lows.

If your standard MACD works well in a particular timeframe, then this will work equally as well because it's basically saying the same thing.

As for it working on longer timeframes, what I would say is that markets turn first from the fastest timeframes. If all of your timeframes have been falling and your M1 starts to make higher highs and higher lows, then this will soon spill over into your M5. If your M5 then starts to make higher highs and lows, it will spill over into the M30, and so on. It might take a day or so, but eventually the positive effect of the faster timeframes will turn your H4 up as well. By the time that your H4 turns, there has often been a 100 pip or more move away from the low.

If, however, you can get in from a low level when the M5 starts to make its higher highs and lows, then you've obviously got the potential for a big winner.

If, on the other hand, you came to the market this morning and looked at the H4 cable chart (which is clearly now going up since the MACD turned again yesterday morning) you would certainly have a problem trying to trade from the H4 chart. At its current level of 2.0350, your stop would need to be under 1.9990 which represents the last H4 low from a couple of days ago. This would make it impractical to trade from anything other than the fastest timeframes.

chrispoote - 17 Mar 2008 19:18 - 9502 of 11056

Hi Freemanfox,

Earlier you mentioned options. I'm beginning to study options with a view to trading them on the US markets so I'd be interested in hearing what you have to say on the subject.

Chris
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