Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Thanks for the comments JT,

Your dead right about the points you make. I have a Trading Plan, up early and have the discipline to follow it all through and it works for me.

Just have to spend some time on the short-term timeframes and come up with something that works there.

Incidently, where do you get a Stochastic indicator that can be plotted over a MACD for MT4. I've search around and can't find one.

Thanks Hils :-)

Good returns on the stoch of MACD philosophy today it seems. Would the users of it regard it as just as worthwhile on bit longer timeframes???

Analysis spot on with cable wanting to go a lot higher, unfortunately execution c!*p.

Closed out my cable long yesterday evening, was happy with my profits and was expecting to be able to re-enter this morning on a pullback. Looks like I may have missed the boat today, so will spend some time today researching trading on 5 min charts.

It isn't a holy grail. It's simply a different way of depicting the MACD which I happen to think makes it easy to read. In particular, it makes it very easy to identify the highs and lows.

If your standard MACD works well in a particular timeframe, then this will work equally as well because it's basically saying the same thing.

As for it working on longer timeframes, what I would say is that markets turn first from the fastest timeframes. If all of your timeframes have been falling and your M1 starts to make higher highs and higher lows, then this will soon spill over into your M5. If your M5 then starts to make higher highs and lows, it will spill over into the M30, and so on. It might take a day or so, but eventually the positive effect of the faster timeframes will turn your H4 up as well. By the time that your H4 turns, there has often been a 100 pip or more move away from the low.

If, however, you can get in from a low level when the M5 starts to make its higher highs and lows, then you've obviously got the potential for a big winner.

If, on the other hand, you came to the market this morning and looked at the H4 cable chart (which is clearly now going up since the MACD turned again yesterday morning) you would certainly have a problem trying to trade from the H4 chart. At its current level of 2.0350, your stop would need to be under 1.9990 which represents the last H4 low from a couple of days ago. This would make it impractical to trade from anything other than the fastest timeframes.

Hi Freemanfox,

Earlier you mentioned options. I'm beginning to study options with a view to trading them on the US markets so I'd be interested in hearing what you have to say on the subject.

Chris

Morning all,

Not much activity on here recently. Over 100 post on the Traders thread yesterday. In Forex, sterling had it's biggest 1 day decline since 1992 and not much reaction from anyone.

To start things off today, I'm long this morning on cable, USD/JPY and GBP/JPY. Any others willing to say what there up to.

Chrispoote - I'll answer re. the options question a bit later when I've a bit more time.

I refrained from commenting on it yesterday, but the leg down was, I felt, pretty significant.

This is the 4 hour chart.



It broke the rising support line of the 4 hour uptrend (blue line).

It moved below the upper bounding line of the previous channel (light blue line) which had offered support 1 week ago.

It made a lower low than the last low of 11th March.

When the market moves back up over the next few days, I think it will be important to watch where it tops off. A lower high than the 2.0396 high from Friday could be an excellent window for Sue42's long term short.

Interestingly, we've also seen a Ruthie's Magic ArrerTM on the dailies.

Hi Guys and Gals,

I think Hils recent call on the 4hr chart and trendline break was top class, hence mention in dispatches! So I captured that one using 15/5 min charts. Long Eur/Jpy and GBp/Jpy and GBp/CHF...I mention that for Foxy.

Currencies very interesting at moment with lots of volatility. looking closely at non $ crosses until interest rate statement and mkt reaction unfolds later today before I make new commitments.

Hi johngtudor,

It doesn't really bother me personally, one way or another what trades people are making because in the end I have my own Trading Plan and stick to it. The main point I was making earlier was that yesterday was one of the most significant days for ages in FX and the thread had no posts. Compare that with over 100 posts on the traders thread.

Out of G/J for 170 pips. All other trades to break even. Looks as though cable didn't like the news just released. Still long though.

Cable shrugged off news and now motoring higher. Having another great day trading. All 3 open positions in profit and stops to b/e. I added another long on EUR/JPY shortly after I initially posted this morning.

Your doing well Foxy. I was glued to my screen yesterday watching Cable chalk up the pips. Looks like more to follow but we will have to see what transpires.

Agree your point about absence of chat on thread yesterday but never mind, we were all set up making money!

The lack of posts on this thread has long been an issue, FF.

Personally, I'm not too worried about reading of other peoples trades, but it would be nice to have a bit more constructive input on the thread about where the market might be going. I firmly believe in quality over quantity and I've enjoyed reading your posts, so please keep them up.

As for the Trader's Thread having 100 posts, by the time you've filtered out the "Good Mornings" and other general chit chat there's not a lot left. Kyoto's input is probably the best imo, and I also respect CC's honesty.

It's the Fed tonight. Has anyone got any views of how much they'll cut? I really haven't got a Scooby and I certainly can't guess how much is already in the price.

Thanks Jt.

Yes having a great day today but I've had phenomenal run recently. Over the last 2 weeks (7 trading days for me) I've made in the region of 1,000 pips. Obviously the volatility as help boost that total above the average for me but I don't think it's any coincidence either that it also covers the period I have started posting on the thread. I think it is forcing me to think more about every position I am entering so that I can justify it not only to myself but others if needbe, if that makes sense.

Also the fact that I am fully focusing on Forex now whereas before I was doing it in a more ad-hoc fashion with other things keeping my attention as well. Not getting complacent though; take each day as it comes.

It's good to see a 'newcomer' posting - hello FreemanFox :)

From what I read yesterday with regard to the Fed funds futures market, investors have priced in the chance of a 100 bp drop in the short term rate, with the April futures contract showing a 22% chance of a 125 bp cut.

I've been mulling over the implications of the dollar becoming a funding currency for carry trades since its yield advantage has been blown out of the water.

So - no, Hil, I haven't really the foggiest either ;)

Because the 'pundits' make it up as they go along (much like ourselves:o) if the market doesn't react to 100bp drop (which is what is widely predicted) they will say it's all in the price and if it does react they will say it was a big surprise! I can't see 'no reaction' myself so I'm out till the dust settles.

Well, assuming 100bp or more, it'll either put a rocket under Wall Street and the dollar - or it'll demonstrate just how bad things are for the economy and credit markets, and get quite ugly if dollar selling turns into a rout and there's a run on assets across the pond.

Who knows which camp will emerge the winner.
Just have to make it up as they go along, as usual.

Rumours of 2% Fed -- is that right? Candidly, I'm not sure it will make any difference to the cataclysmic events that we're about to witness. Doomed, I tell ye, doomed . . .

Well I'm keeping my eye on China:

BEIJING (Dow Jones)--Premier Wen Jiabao acknowledged Tuesday that hitting this year's inflation target will be hard, and signaled China's efforts to cap prices and prevent an economic overheating were being complicated by serious troubles in the U.S.

"What I'm worried about now is: When will we see the bottom of the U.S. dollar's relentless depreciation, what kind of monetary policy will the U.S. employ, and how will its economy fare?" Wen asked during a news conference.

The severity of the U.S. subprime crisis fallout became clearer with a bailout over the weekend of Wall Street investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC). The Bear bailout whipped up more volatility in stock markets and pushed the dollar lower.

Wen acknowledged China might have a difficult time meeting its target of 4.8% inflation for the full year, but said Beijing will keep working to bring down prices.

Pressing ahead with the campaign against an overheating economy, the central bank said Tuesday it will raise the reserve requirement ratio for banks, the second increase this year and the 12th since the start of 2007.

The People's Bank of China will require most commercial banks to keep 15.5% of their deposits on reserve from March 25, up from 15.0% now. The last hike took effect Jan. 25.

China needs to find a balance between maintaining economic growth and curbing inflation, Wen told a news conference after China's legislature, the National People's Congress, finished its annual meeting Tuesday morning.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's loosening policy - it is expected to further cut rates this week - makes it harder for Beijing to raise interest rates, a move that could attract speculative funds and worsen China's problem of excess liquidity.

Wen said changes in interest rates or foreign-exchange levels carried both benefits and costs that must be weighed.

His remarks on the weakening U.S. dollar and the Fed's monetary policy suggest China "fully understands its policy constraints," and will rely on a faster rate of yuan appreciation, rather than on interest-rate hikes, to fight inflation, said Morgan Stanley economist Wang Qing.

The latest reserve-ratio hike, while part of the central bank's frequent mopping up of liquidity, suggests Beijing is seeking to curb inflation through draining liquidity.

PBOC Vice Gov. Yi Gang said earlier this month the central bank will use moral suasion, open market operations, the reserve requirement ratio, and credit policy to deal with a complex domestic and external economic environment.

A stronger yuan would make imports cheaper in China, and could help curb growth of the trade surplus, which adds to inflation pressure by injecting liquidity into the domestic banking system and boosting credit and investment growth.

But Wen and PBOC Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan damped expectations of another revaluation of the yuan.

Wen said China would base the yuan's exchange rate on market forces and reference it to a basket of currencies - restating policy and implying that big changes, such as a revaluation, are unlikely.

China has said in the past it wants the appreciation of its currency to be gradual and orderly, despite calls from Western powers including the U.S. and the European Union for a quicker yuan rise to combat the huge trade imbalances.

Asked about recent rumors in foreign-exchange markets that China would soon revalue the yuan, Zhou said: "There are a lot of rumors in the market. People shouldn't trust them."

Asked about rate hikes, Zhou said earlier Tuesday that Beijing has scope to adjust its tight monetary policy, but didn't specifically refer to rate hikes.


Expectations Key In China's Inflation Battle


Inflation in China has been driven mostly by food prices, but it has been picking up for more than a year and the consumer price index rose 8.7% in February, a nearly 12-year high. Stubborn inflation could encourage workers to ask for higher wages, boosting costs and non-food prices.

Wen said Beijing set an inflation target of around 4.8% this year to demonstrate its resolve and calm expectations of further price rises, but warned that the fight against inflation will be more than a one-year project for China.

"When prices are rising rapidly, the expectations for price rises are more scary than the price rise itself," Wen said.

To alleviate inflation fears, Wen revealed a figure that it normally keeps a state secret: China's grain reserves are between 150 million to 200 million metric tons. That's about 30% to 40% of China's grain output last year.

Wen added China will boost investment in agriculture and ensure steady growth in the production of grains and key agricultural products.

Outlining the longer term plans for his government, Wen said China intends to boost domestic consumption over the next five years. Beijing will boost the market's role in allocating resources while continuing to reform its financial sector, he said.

Out all day since last post. Because I wasn't around I put really tight stops on my positions. On returning I've found both the E/J and U/J stop out for b/e, though they are both over a 100 pips higher now! Oh well. Cable has made me feel a lot happier with the frustation of the other 2 positions though as I'm over 150 pips in profit.
Could of been so much better, but can't complain too much though :-)