duplicated

no i would go along with more down insider..just cos everyone is looking to buy dips..they have been well trained these last 18 months

more down of course to complete the e wave and 5th on the daily chart 9550/70ish.

The major stock indexes continued their declines of last week, with all three major indexes, the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ, closing beneath their respective 200-day moving averages. The S&P also closed beneath the mid-channel of the parallel trend channel formed by the selloff from its March 5 high and beneath the 61.8% retracement of the rise from the May 12 low. We said Friday night that we wanted to press the bearish case coming into todays session and the markets decline accommodated our stance.




The same near-term bullish divergences we discussed in terms of breadth and ticks however, have not been resolved. Both NYSE and S&P 500 only breadth were slightly positive today, despite the down close in both the Dow and S&P. Likewise, NYSE ticks have so far failed to register a downside reading of greater than minus 1091, the kick-off reading to wave three down on July 1. And the daily charts of the Dow and S&P look like five wave declines from the late June highs. Finally, the high-beta indexes, such as the NASDAQ and its technology subcomponents, were stronger today on a relative and absolute basis, which suggests the decline from the late June highs may be in its latter stages. The combination of these near term technical factors suggests that a short term market low is fast approaching, which should mark the end of a five wave decline from the late June highs. This low should lead to an A-B-C rally to correct the selloff of the past three weeks.

The Dow and S&P both ended the day on a weak tone, so tomorrow mornings session will be important in helping us determine whether the five wave decline is complete or whether there remains a bit more selling pressure before the A-B-C rally starts. The above chart shows the subdivisions of the decline from the late June high in the S&P. The pattern is the same for the Dow. The best interpretation of the retreat is that at least one more down leg will unfold before wave (v) is complete. When finished, this leg lower should mark the bottom of Minute wave i (circled) down and lead directly to wave ii (circled) up. Based on internal wave relationships the S&P has support surrounding the 1091 level, though prices could move a bit lower (but we will look for signs of low near 1091). The equivalent support target for a bottom in the Dow is 9976-10,000. If these support levels are breached in any meaningful manner, selling pressure may become intense.

If the S&P pushes above the wave i of (v) low at any time, which is 1108, then the five wave decline from the June 25 will have already ended (Minute wave i (circled) down) and the A-B-C rally will be underway. The equivalent level in the Dow is 10,172. A push above there would indicate that Minute wave ii (circled) up was underway. The S&P would then be expected to rally into the 1115-1127 area, while the Dow should push up into the 10,225-10,325 area. We will narrow these ranges as we see the pattern development within wave ii (circled) and are able to make some Fibonacci-based wave projections. The rally, once it starts, should last at least a week.

what time does Ali G start gobbing off anyone?

7pm i think

Alan Greenspan Speaks! Tuesday - Jul 20, 2004

2:30 PM ET : Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to present Fed's second monetary policy report to Congress for 2004, before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington .

Speech Highlights: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is scheduled to present the second monetary policy report to Congress (the first was delivered in February). He addresses the Senate Banking Committee at 2:30 p.m. ET. Market players will nervously be watching whether or not the Fed chairman will reveal any new thoughts on the inflation outlook or the pace at which interest rates will be increased in upcoming months.



Sources: A special thanks to marketnews.com for providing the scheduling information for the speeches

Alan Greenspan Speaks! Tuesday - Jul 20, 2004

2:30 PM ET

I can't wait.......

me too he might drop dead if were lucky

CAIRO (AP)--U.N. weapons inspectors will return to Iraq in the coming days following an official invitation from the new government, the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Tuesday.

Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told reporters in Cairo that Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari had formally asked his agency to return.

"The return of U.N. inspectors to Iraq is an urgent necessity; not to search for weapons of mass destruction but to write the final report about the nonexistence of (such) weapons...in Iraq, which will enable the lifting of sanctions," he said.

The inspectors will be sent in the next few days, ElBaradei said.

U.N. inspectors left Iraq just before the war began in March 2003, and the U.S. refused to allow them to return, instead deploying its own teams to search for weapons of mass destruction.

ElBaradei said the coalition forces are not mandated to prove or negate that Iraq had WMD.

"The sole mandated authority is the IAEA and the international inspectors will continue the mission they started before the invasion," he said, adding that its mandate does not end until the final report is submitted. Following that report, sanctions imposed on Iraq can be lifted.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 20, 2004 12:02 ET (16:02 GMT)

Howdy pardners

alright hedge

nice thread!.

any of you fine guys and gals interested in playing the investment game
i'm sure you have seen the thread. It would be great to add another team
to the game and 'The Bucket Shop Team', would be interesting! a max of 10 players.
If not oh well and all the best.

-Goldie-
:-)

Thx for that GD.
Not bad Moonie.Shame about the other place.

Ali G says"you have had yer last warning"

20 Jul 2004 18:31 GMT


BULLET: [Greenspan]-Neutral stance is not defined, but risk..
[Greenspan]-Neutral stance is not defined, but raises risk of higher rates at a faster pace if needed: Fed needs "to be prepared for the unexpected and to respond promptly and flexibly as situations warrant." Says econ activity has quickened but inflation has been boosted by "transitory factors"; labor mkt is improving and there could be follow-on effects for spending. Fed "will pay close attention to incoming data, esp on costs and prices." Says "Even if econ developments dictate that the stance of policy must be adjusted in a less gradual manner to ensure price stability, our economy appears to have prepared itself for a more dynamic adjustment of interest rates." Mentions surging corp profits and higher ULC, but says margins are leveling or seeing downward pressure and wage hikes are not yet a problem. Except oil, no heightened risk perceptions. Central tend,&'04: real GDP +4.5%-4.75%;PCE core px +1.75-2% \

Provided by: Market News International

20 Jul 2004 18:33 GMT


=Fed Sees Rising US Inflation As Econ Grows Rapidly
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The Federal Reserve on Tuesday raised its forecasts for U.S. inflation this year, and said the U.S. economy would likely continue to expand at a brisk pace this year and next.

In its semiannual report to Congress, the Fed predicted its favored measure of inflation - the price index for personal consumption, excluding food and energy - would range between 1.75% and 2.0% for 2004. This marks an upward shift from February when the Fed said the overall consumption price index would probably rise between 1% and 1.25% for the year, and has core inflation bumping against the 2% limit policymakers view as an acceptable level.

The Fed said that starting with this report, it would begin forecasting inflation figures as measured by the core price index for personal consumption, rather than the overall index, because policymakers "believe is better as an indicator of underlying inflation trends."

For 2005, the Fed sees core inflation between 1.5% and 2.0%. In the year through May, the overall price index for personal consumption was up 2.5%, while core inflation was up 1.6%.

"To some extent, the upturn in core inflation reflected the indirect effects of higher energy prices, but other forces also played a role," the Fed said in the report released Tuesday. "Strengthening aggregate demand both at home and abroad induced a surge in the prices of many primary commodities and industrial materials."

Also, the falling value of the U.S. dollar made imported goods more expensive, the Fed noted.

Still, "the prospects also seem favorable for inflation to remain contained in the period ahead," the Fed said. "For one reason, some of the forces that contributed to the upturn in core inflation in the first half of 2004 are likely to prove transitory." Specifically, energy and commodity prices should moderate in the months ahead, the Fed said.

Last month, the Fed raised its key short-term interest rate for the first time in four years by a quarter point, as economic growth became broad-based and the pace of job creation picked up. The Fed said the move likely marked the beginning of a "measured" approach to lifting interest rates back to levels more normal for a healthy economy.

The Fed said that while some recent economic data have "been on the soft side, the available information on the outlook for the U.S. economy is, on balance, positive."

The Fed said its "central tendency" forecast is for U.S. gross domestic product to grow between 4.5% and 4.75% in 2004, a bit narrower range than the 4.5% to 5.0% called for in February. The Fed also predicted 2005 U.S. growth will fall in the range of 3.5% and 4.0%. The predictions measure growth in the fourth quarter over the fourth quarter of the prior year.

The figures are in line with private forecasts on Wall Street, which call for the U.S. economy to expand about 4.5% in 2004 and 3.8% in 2005.

"Households are enjoying a generally improving job market, rising real incomes and greater wealth, all of which are providing them with the confidence and wherewithal to spend," the Fed said.

The Fed's latest estimates call for unemployment to range between 5.25% and 5.5% in the fourth quarter this year, exactly matching the February forecast. As of June, the U.S. unemployment rate stood at 5.6%, according to the U.S. Labor Department.

For 2005, the Fed predicts unemployment will drop to a range between 5.0% and 5.25%.

-By Elizabeth Price, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9295; Elizabeth.Price@dowjones.com

Yep, he's too late = US screwed:

20 Jul 2004 18:35 GMT


MARKET TALK/FX: Fed Bumps Up Its Inflation Bet

[MARKET TALK/FX is edited by Michael A. Pollock]
[of Dow Jones Newswires, 201-938-2004; michael.pollock@dowjones.com]

1835 GMT [Dow Jones] The Fed has updated its so-called central tendency forecasts and has upgraded its inflation assessment to a range of 1.75% to 2% for the current year. The growth bet is down a bit, with GDP gaining between 4.5% and 4.75% for the year. (MSD)

Tsys going nuts