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The Forex Thread (FX)     

hilary - 31 Dec 2003 13:00

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Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Tellon - 16 Apr 2004 11:52 - 953 of 11056

didnt get near it really. going short @ 69.5

Sue 42 - 16 Apr 2004 12:29 - 954 of 11056

??? 69.5?

hodgins - 16 Apr 2004 12:45 - 955 of 11056

Tellon did you mean 79.5, if so a wonderful call.
I am ducking and weaving.

Tellon - 16 Apr 2004 13:49 - 956 of 11056

It was 78.5 when i went short but i use ig index so pay a 9point spread. so I open at 69.5. Ive closed now at 71.5 for -2.

Im just not comfortable with the move, not enough legs on it.

So Out for -2

hilary - 16 Apr 2004 13:55 - 957 of 11056

Back from tennis to find that I'd been stopped from my longs while I was out at varying levels from -15 to +120. Have re-entered long with a stop on a move below the 1:30pm low and limit orders to add if/when it rises. Intend to let it run into next week.

It's Poets day, so I'm off now. Have a good holiday, Beebs.

Tellon - 16 Apr 2004 14:46 - 958 of 11056

I am in agreement now. going Long at 16.5 (25.5 Open) Lets hope this one works out a little better.

Cloggs - 16 Apr 2004 15:26 - 959 of 11056

Thanks for the welcome.Not a good start got stopped out-100 now its back to whare i started.

hodgins - 16 Apr 2004 15:50 - 960 of 11056

Blimey, just survived a probably too wide a stop and the trade that was down and had a hopeful????? limit 50 above has just got taken out for +50 when I was too slow getting back from lopping hedges.
Need another reentry now and the wife is demanding the rest of the hedges get done.

Beeblebrox - 16 Apr 2004 15:59 - 961 of 11056

do you want yer dinner tonight hodgins,
or will you go hungry ?

Tellon - 16 Apr 2004 16:03 - 962 of 11056

I just closed my postion, +110 (I think it will go higher but im going to the pub so will take my profits and run)

Have a good weekend all.

hodgins - 16 Apr 2004 16:12 - 963 of 11056

hedges and out for dinner in that order, and no reentry

hodgins - 16 Apr 2004 18:36 - 964 of 11056

Reentry achieved long.
I just had to follow the mistress of the board long into next week!

hilary - 19 Apr 2004 08:07 - 965 of 11056

GBPUSD
Price: 1.7960
Day View
Resistance: 1.7995 1.8015 1.8045 1.8060

Support: 1.7950 1.7920 1.7885 1.7840



Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Bullish: Friday saw the overall pullback deepen towards 1.8046 from where the has been a sturdy reaction back lower. However, we see ambiguous signals and could quite well believe that support at 1.7920-50 could hold to cause a second test at the 1.8046 level and possibly even a move to 1.8095. Break of 1.7995-1.8015 would confirm the test higher. However, if seen we consider the 1.8095 area as a cap.



Bearish: Having reached key pivot resistance at 1.2046 we cannot rule out a direct resumption of the downtrend. This would require a break below 1.7920 and preferably 1.7880-90 in which case the emphasis would once again turn lower towards 1.7835-40 and then back to test the 1.7755-75 lows. Below would trigger aggressive losses to the next major target at 1.7650. Any earlier test of 1.8095 would present an excellent selling opportunity.


GBP%20Apr%2019.gif


Week View
Resistance: 1.8095 1.8195 1.8280 1.8420

Support: 1.7840 1.7755 1.7650 1.7515



The end of last week dented the directly bearish view but the pullback has failed to break above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and also the 1.8050-95 resistance area. Schaff Trend Cycle reversed higher and is rising though at high levels while FXS-RSI rallied above oversold territory and is still rising. We continue to prefer to retain our bearish stance with the next stalling point at 1.7650.



Bullish: The pullback higher has been slightly stronger than expected but has held, thus far, below the 1.8050 resistance level. Friday may well have seen the high in this correction but we should allow a move up to 1.8095. Thus, we can only re-assess and look for stronger gains should the 1.8100 level break. If seen we would then look for gains to extend towards 1.8195 and possibly as high as 1.8280-00.



Bearish: Although the pullback has been deeper than expected it has held below the key 1.8050 level and while the 1.8050-95 resistance holds we remain bearish for a move down through 1.7755 and onto 1.7650 where a pullback is possible. Further support is seen at 1.7515.



Month View
(Updated 19th April)

Resistance: 1.8300 1.8605 1.8875 1.9025

Support: 1.7650 1.7165 1.6905 1.6565



The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and expect to see progress to the next support at 1.7650 this week. From there we should see a correction develop but the coming 4-6 weeks looks bearish towards 1.7165.

hilary - 19 Apr 2004 08:11 - 966 of 11056

Date

Country/ Currency

Event

GMT

CONSENSUS

PREVIOUS

19-Apr

GBP

PPI (Mar)

8:30

1.2%Y

1.6%Y

Mon

EUR

ECB Papademos speech

10:30

 

 

 

CAD

Motor vehicle sales (Feb)

12:30

7.0%M

1.3%M

 

USD

Leading indicators (Mar)

14:00

 

0.0%M

 

NZD

CPI (Q2)

22:45

0.5%Q

0.7%Q

20-Apr

AUD

NAB business survey (Q1)

1:30

 

 

Tue

DEM

PPI (Mar)

6:00

0.2%M

-0.1%Y

 

GBP

CPI (Mar)

8:30

1.3%Y

1.3%Y

 

DEM

ZEW economic sentiment (Apr)

9:00

55.0

57.6

 

CAD

CPIX (Mar)

11:00

0.3%M

0.2%M

 

CAD

BoC Dodge testifies to Parliament

 

 

 

 

EUR

ECB Mersch speech (Luxembourg)

 

 

 

 

USD

FOMC Pianalto speech (Cleveland, OH)

 

 

 

 

USD

FOMC Greenspan testifies to Senate

 

 

 

21-Apr

GBP

MPC minutes (7/8 April meeting)

8:30

 

 

Wed

EUR

ECB Issing speech (Munich)

9:00

 

 

 

CAD

Leading indicators (Mar)

12:30

0.3%M

0.4%M

 

USD

FOMC Greenspan testifies to Congress

14:00

 

 

 

USD

FOMC Parry speech (Gettysburg, PA)

15:30

 

 

 

USD

Beige Book (for 4 May meeting)

16:00

 

 

 

GBP

Chancellor Brown speech (London)

 

 

 

 

JPY

BoJ Suda speech (Okinawa)

 

 

 

22-Apr

CHF

Trade (Apr)

6:15

 

1.3bn

Thu

FRF

Consumer spending (Mar)

6:45

 

0.0%M

 

USD

Initial claims (17 Apr week)

12:30

 

360k

 

CAD

BoC Dodge speech (Toronto, ON)

 

 

 

 

DEM

Chancellor Schroeder speech (Berlin)

 

 

 

 

EUR

ECB Trichet speech (Frankfurt)

 

 

 

 

EUR

EU Comm economic conference (Brussels)

 

 

 

23-Apr

GBP

Retail sales (Mar)

8:30

0.1%M

0.0%M

Fri

GBP

GDP - first estimate (Q1)

8:30

0.8%Q

0.9%Q

 

ITL

Consumer confidence (Apr)

8:30

101.5

101.9

 

USD

Durable goods (Mar)

12:30

 

2.5%M

 

USD

FOMC Moskow speech (New York)

Tellon - 19 Apr 2004 09:48 - 967 of 11056

Morning all,

Im ill and ive been whipsawed twice with my startegy this morning. -22 & -32 my largest loss yet.. Still it could be worse..

Going Long @ 112 (Re-Entry)

Cloggs - 19 Apr 2004 10:11 - 968 of 11056

Morning

Long cable at the moment

Tellon - 19 Apr 2004 11:14 - 969 of 11056

Out for -8

Tellon - 19 Apr 2004 11:16 - 970 of 11056

My Risk control is being stretched to the limit today.. Seems very chopy as off 8am.. I think the market is a bit unsure..

(GBP/USD)

Cloggs - 19 Apr 2004 11:24 - 971 of 11056

Tellon
I am trading like a muppet today been stooped out twice so your no alone

foale - 19 Apr 2004 12:52 - 972 of 11056

Hi Hilary would be interested in the source of that chart above
ie the charting software
where did you get that info from?

I am currently short Euro and Cable
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