I get a strong suspicion that too many people are too overweight in Chinese stocks now. The reason for this is that after posting the China Tax and China Labour Law changes on a number of sites, there has been absolutely no response at all on most. High profile names ignore the posts, nobody commenting at all, either pro or against.

It therefore suggests to me that lots of people are presently very overweight in China stocks, they have got caught with the market weakness, and are now holding at a loss - waiting to sell any rise.

If, and its only an "if", the market weakness continues, and more and more of these people are trapped into China plays - you can foresee, imv, a lot of weakness coming into that sector, as more and more give up and bail out.

Quite remarkable that so many got duped into buying "China" as a safety against US/EU credit fears and recessions - only to now find its not as safe as they thought, and China stocks are also falling.

My own suspicions were that the China stock dream would go into breakdown and start its fall once the 2008 Summer Olympics had passed and the government can afford the luxury of upsetting lots more people and not caring about "face" during the Olympics that the world will be watching.

Is there another boom left in them before the Olympics comes and goes ? Will the boom not happen as its sold into ? Will they all meakly fade now and continue to do so ? Will they just keep on booming and not fall back again ?

Please discuss !!

Output cuts spark fears over China economy

By Geoff Dyer in Beijing

Published: October 29 2008 19:04 | Last updated: October 29 2008 19:04

Signs are growing that Chinas economy could be cooling quicker than expected, with a string of big industrial companies announcing production cuts over the past week.

The cuts have come as anecdotal evidence from other companies suggests a surprising weakening of demand in October amid the global financial crisis and a local housing market slowdown.

Aluminium Corporation of China, the countrys biggest producer, said last week it would cut production by 18 per cent and a senior executive was quoted in local media on Monday saying further cutbacks were possible.

Jinchuan, Chinas biggest nickel producer, said on Tuesday it was cutting its production target for this year by 17 per cent, while several copper smelters have made large cutbacks over the past two weeks.

Metals and mining companies around the world have had to rethink production in recent months because of falling prices and weakening global demand. However, companies in China have also faced reduced orders from construction companies as house prices have dropped.

Analysts from Macquarie Securities said that in Tangshan, a big steel-making centre in north China, most mills were running at 30-50 per cent of normal capacity and many small iron ore mines had ceased production.

Orders for cars and home appliances have already begun to shrink, Xu Lejiang, chairman of Baosteel, Chinas biggest steelmaker, said last week.

Zhou Xizeng, analyst with Citic Securities, said steelmakers were trying to adjust rapidly to uncertainty about demand and an inventory build-up. The recent drop in production is a sort of psychological panic, he said.

Executives in a number of other industries also said demand had been unusually weak in recent weeks.

But some executives said the slowdown could also reflect shorter-term factors such as customers reducing their inventories because of global uncertainties.

We had been expecting this to pick up a bit after the end of Olympics restrictions on factories, but things have been very quiet, said the chief executive of the China operations of a large paints company. We are trying to work out how much is due to weak demand and how much to destocking.

Economists are predicting growth next year of 8-9 per cent, down from nearly 12 per cent in 2007. Several have downgraded their numbers in recent weeks and more cuts are expected.

In September and October, there has been an acceleration in the slowdown in consumption and in exports that has not yet showed up in the official data, said Stephen Green, economist at Standard Chartered in Shanghai.

Despite fears of a sharp slowdown, a number of companies remain upbeat about growth prospects in China. I do not see this as the start of a significant decline, said Nick Reilly, president of General Motors Asia.

Paul French, a retail industry consultant in Shanghai, said the holiday week in early October had been strong for retailers. For now, things seem to be all right for retailers but when the market does slow, it does so very quickly, he said.

Local sentiment may be boosted by the central banks willingness to trim interest rates repeatedly, as demonstrated by Wednesday's move to cut the benchmark one-year deposit rate from 3.87 per cent to 3.60.

Additional reporting by Patti Waldmeir in Shanghai and Mure Dickie in Beijing

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/35e79c6c-a5eb-11dd-9d26-000077b07658.html

Worth a read for background China info/opinon going forward :

http://www.investegate.co.uk/invarticle.aspx?id=58707

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Proselenes = PP =one sad troll

The markets should continue to tank.

Democrat president.
Democrat majority in the Senate.

Lots of lots of " trade and job protective" legislation to come in imv, its going to mean Asia will be hit with less export work, and its going to mean US companies will struggle to make higher profits.

Republicans like to make money at any cost - Democrats are more job protective, and now the markets must start to price in the fact the money maker glottalization loving Republicans are not there any more.

Recession, Democrats in control - one could say Wall Street is in for some lean years ahead.

The main thing and relative to this thread is that China (and India and other Asian countries) will be hit and hurt now, imo, with the Democrats in control and the likely move to "job protectionism" that will come.

Worth a read ahead of the Nov figures coming out soon :


http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/11/07/2008-11-07T081234Z_01_PEK6605_RTRIDST_0_CHINA-ECONOMY-POLL.html


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Chinese Communist Party remains telling large porky pies about 9% growth ???????

Yet another Chinese AIM stock warns over the troubles of recession, sorry, must not say that we must say warns of the problems of just 9% growth.........LOL

Recession................ :) Wonder what they will be saying if the Communist Party reports growth of 8%, or 7% even..... ;)



RNS Number : 8793H
Et-china.com International Holdings
11 November 2008

ET-CHINA.COM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

('Et-china', 'the Group' or 'the Company')

Trading Update

Et-china, a leading travel services group in the fast growing region of South China, announces the following trading update. The Group is being affected by the reduced level of economic growth in China and the current cautious approach by the Chinese to leisure and business travel spending as well as considerable price cutting in the travel industry. As a result, the Company is not expecting to meet market expectations but the Board is optimistic that current conditions will prove to be short lived and the market will recover soon.

The Company remains liquid with RMB267m (approximately 22m) in cash and believes that the Chinese economy is fundamentally sound. The Company will seek to speed up its expansion via selective acquisition at this opportune time and provide an update to the market as soon as possible.

Wonder who has been saying this, for many months.....


http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081113/ts_afp/financeeconomychinawen_081113044914


Impact of financial crisis on China 'worse than expected': Wen

2 hrs 47 mins ago AFP/File

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at a press conference in Beijing. Wen Jiabao has said the effect of the global BEIJING (AFP)

China's Premier Wen Jiabao said the effect of the global financial meltdown on the country was "worse than expected," state media said Thursday, in a sign of growing concern at the impact of the crisis.

Wen was quoted as making the assessment by the director of the National Bureau of Statistics Ma Jiantang when he briefed his staff on Tuesday, according to the website of the bureau's newspaper China Information News.

"The impact of the global financial crisis on the Chinese economy is much worse than many had expected," Ma said according to the website, passing on remarks made by Wen.

China initially said the global financial crisis would not cause too much harm to its economy, but in recent days the signals from Beijing have changed markedly.

Wen's comment comes after the Chinese government unveiled a four trillion yuan (586 billion dollars) economic stimulus plan on Sunday aimed at boosting domestic consumer demand in the face of flagging exports.

A good article to read - if you are not so exposed to Chinese AIM stocks that you cannot see the wood for the trees.

I must admit that presently everything in China is going as I thought it would, and thats into "crisis" for 2009. Some key months ahead now, but 2009 is certainly looking to be a real problem for China.


http://www.boxun.us/news/publish/china_comment/Chinese_Economy_Turning_Point.shtml


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How are LEAD doing since our psychopath ramped it? Not to mention the prediction of oil at $200.

YAWN. Mendacity is best filtered.

Rumours around China's growth figure for Q4 could be less than 6%.

It seems the "panic" measure of interest rate cuts and massive "proposed" spending is because fears are the slowdown is accelerating and they see "contraction" and therefore real recession in 2009.

This explains the panic measure being made by the Chinese government, for negative growth in China would potentially lead to massive social problems.

The action they are taking is not sustainable, and can only make things worse long term.

Will it work ? and can they bump up the growth figure for a long enough time to see demand return from the US and Europe and therefore stave of a contraction ? It seems people think there will be a contraction in 2009, but it will not be "released" and the Ministry of Fudge will pump out lower, but not that low growth figures.

I wonder who has been saying China is in real trouble, more than was being let on.........


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/3525052/China-slashes-interest-rates-as-panic-spreads.html

China slashes interest rates as panic spreads

The People's Bank of China cut interest rates by more than 1pc point as the economy crumbles and millions of jobs are predicted to go ahead of Christmas.

By Malcolm Moore in Shanghai
Last Updated: 12:48PM GMT 26 Nov 2008


........................

http://livenews.com.au/articles/2008/11/28/ChinaJapan_Slumping


China slumping, recession looms for Australia

28/11/2008 6:19:00 AM.

All those people who still believe Australia won't dip into recession in 2009, as the IMF, OECD, Federal Treasury and Reserve Bank predict, should think again.

China, whose 'solid' demand for our resources was supposed to help keep us out of recession in 2009, is getting worried.

So worried that it slashed interest rates Wednesday night by the biggest margin in 11 years, once again it proving that it pays to watch what central banks do, not what they say.

Bloomberg reported yesterday that a senior Chinese economic official had warned that "Some economic indicators in China showed a "faster decline" in November, the.........................full article on the link.

China in trouble........


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVRGLHihqJtM&refer=home

Chinas November Manufacturing Contracts by Record

By Nipa Piboontanasawat

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Chinas manufacturing shrank by the most on record and export orders plunged, adding to evidence that recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan are dragging down the ................

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I hate to give you the I told you so, but all those talking and ramping about "China's Domestic Demand"..........its all nonsense. Its not strong enough and not mature, and we have seen the old Commies reach for the faithful, "lets boost exports again as domestic demand is not there" with tax cuts, tax concessions, subsidies etc...

This devaluing again confirms that process is happening, and domestically they are in trouble.

China was built on corruption, all its figures are total nonsense, and anyone believing any data coming out of China about growth, employment, cash reserves etc... is being very silly.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/3546471/Chinese-economy-1930s-beggar-thy-neighbour-fears-as-China-devalues.html

Last Updated: 11:13PM GMT 03 Dec 2008

1930s beggar-thy-neighbour fears as China devalues

China has begun to devalue the yuan for the first time in over a decade, raising fears that it will set off a 1930s-style race to the bottom and tip the global economy into an even deeper slump............

The central bank has shifted the central peg of its dollar band twice this week in a calculated move that suggests Beijing aims to offset the precipitous slide in Chinese manufacturing by trying to gain further export share abroad.

The futures markets are pricing in a 6pc devaluation over the next year. "This is clearly a big shift in policy and we are now on alert," said Simon Derrick, currency chief at the Bank of New York Mellon.

The move follows a Politburo speech by President Hu Jintao warning that China is "losing competitive edge in the world market"....................

http://business.smh.com.au/business/chinas-industrial-output-growth-stalls-20081215-6ys8.html


China's industrial output growth stallsDecember 15, 2008 - 3:34PM .

China's industrial production grew at the weakest pace in almost a decade as export growth collapsed, increasing pressure on the government to do more to revive a slumping economy.

Production rose 5.4% in November from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today. None of 14 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted such a small increase. Output............................

.

A Chinese AIM companies bites the dust few what appears to be rather "dodgy" goings on ??????

http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=200812221014325813K&fe=1


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LED today suspended.

BSST today reports a poor trading update and that the Financial Crisis is having an effect in China. Bangkok system woes these must also effect GNG going forward imo.

China - 2009 ?

Looks to be just what was suspected, China has been a ramp (mostly by the ADVFN BB rampers) and its in big trouble, and those attempting to ramp most Chinese stocks have lost loads and loads as they have all crumbled.

Some interesting articles to read :


http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Shine+China+world+cheapest+factory/1103093/story.html

Shine is off China as world's cheapest factory

B.C. manufacturers do a reality check on low-cost country

By Joanne Lee-YoungDecember 29, 2008

When Richmond-based Holey Shoes first started making its signature clogs in 2002, it used a manufacturer in Quebec. But as its foamy, colourful shoes became ..................

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http://en.epochtimes.com/n2/content/view/9346/

Part 1

China’s Economy Is in a Deep Freeze and Unable to Recover (Part I) By Cheng Xiaonong

Sound of Hope Dec 29, 2008

The following is Part I of Dr. Cheng Xiaonong’s report regarding China’s economy, broadcast on Sound of Hope Radio on December 17. Dr. Cheng was a former advisor to China’s past premier Zhao Ziyang. He holds a Ph.D. in sociology from Princeton, and is Editor-in-Chief of Modern China Studies.

Rich Own Majority of China’s Wealth

We mention polarized income distribution in society. The government, by all means, protects a small group of privileged people so................


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http://en.epochtimes.com/n2/content/view/9485/

Part 2

China’s Economy Is in a Deep Freeze and Unable to Recover (Part I) By Cheng Xiaonong



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Well worth reading.