AGM today and starting to tick up.



http://www.mediwatch.com/

Oakapples....are you a bit excited with the rise/ bet you are leaning on that keyboard not believing your eyes:-)

do remember that with no major news it will drift -long term a great hold anyway!

hondaman.... nice chart breakout today:-)

Jules - thats spooky - I sit in a swivel chair between the PC and a musical keyboard - when I read your post my first thought was that someone was watching me !! - Great start to the Mediwatch day. I lost money on this little Gem when I chickened out last May but I have already made up for that and more.

well done everyone, this thread tempted me in last week and already well ahead, now deciding whether to add today or see if any profit-taking weakness tomorrow?

All this enthusiasm on this thread, how could I resist a buy!! Did have a good look around and I do like what I see. Just needs to become profitable, which seems very a nearby possibility and from there I feel it will begin to motor. I note that the ints are scheduled for the 28th Jan.

Not scheduled - they could be announced anytime. However, they were on 28 Jan last year.

Thanks for that - I was about to ask where Optomistic got info from

Info from TD Waterhouse website. Dates are listed as 'Forecast key dates'

News is reputed to be coming later this week according to someone's "reliable source" on advfn.

Could be twaddle of course, though many others (myself included) have been predicting at least a doubling of share price on the announcement of the US deal.

I would say that MDW is worth up to 25p with the US deal and 30p+ when the Chinese and Hong Kong approval comes through on top of that.

Yes it's starting to warm up quite nicely for MDW now.As you say the US deal will be the major announcement that will kick this off and hopefully this will be in the next few days.

Unbelievable - look at that chart and no interest over the past 2 days !

This is going to explode when the long awaited news comes out on the US deal.

It'll fall a bit afterwards for profit taking, but I've a feeling that the announcement of the China/Hong Kong SDA approval won't be too far behind.

There's a good probability that we'll see MDW moving past 30p very quickly when the momentum kicks in. I'm sure by that time this board will be so clogged, I won't be able to get a word in edgeways lol!

Hello, overgrowth, so you're here as well - growing all over the place! Looking good here - I like the chart scenery. All seem confident about the US deal and no smoke without fire, as they say. But why 30p?

Eric

Hi Eric - this one's a goodie for 2005 (and 2006 if you're longer term).

I can't claim the credit for these fundamental predictions (I posted them a few days ago - thanks to Irpy on advfn), though they look quite achievable to me:

"I guess 40m market cap is not too unreasonable in the medium term.

A very rough estimate assumes that the US market would amount to, say $17.5m, or 17.5 / 1.9 (exchange rate) = 9.2m, (average of last MDW estimate)and allow 1/2 as much again for everything else (pure guess).

Therefore, annual sales are expected to be 1.5x 9.2m = 13.8m. Since the p/e ratio is nonsensical atm, take the market cap to be 3x annual sales forecast = 41.4m.

The no. shares in circulation is about 91m and so the SP would be 41.4 / 91 = 0.45 or 45p.

Current price is 7.25p which makes this a potential 45 / 7.25 = 6.2 bagger medium term, imo."


I've gone for the more conservative 30p+, but I won't complain if we see 45p in 2005 :-)

Cheers

OG

overgrowth

Impressive as usual and in four minutes flat! Why the confidence that the US deal is imminent? OK the price move suggests something is happening but it could be an order announcement or Hong Kong and China. Suspect I need a bit of the action in any case!

Eric

Eric,

MDW announced FDA approval was gained in the US back in January 2004 and at that time they said that a distribution deal was under discussion and a favourable outcome was expected to be imminent.

Investors waited and waited for this "imminent" deal and then got fed up when they found out that there were legal issues to sort out around the middle of the year.

On the 8th of December Mediwatch issued the following RNS:

"Mediwatch plc (AIM: MDW), the high-tech medical diagnostic equipment manufacturer and supplier has settled legal issues referred to in the Company announcement dated 27th May 2004 which had delayed negotiations for distribution of its equipment in the USA.

Negotiations with potential clients are now resuming, with the aim of introducing an expanded range of Mediwatch equipment to the large and important American market.

Said Mediwatch CEO Philip Stimpson: " We believe that our products are the best in the sector, providing clinicians with innovation, quality and value.

"Moving into the USA will enable Mediwatch to compete for business in one of the biggest health care markets in the world."

With increasing life expectancy and an ageing population, prostate and urological conditions are among the fastest growing health problems encountered by doctors today."

Having had a year to work things out and with the legal shackles removed, and allowing a few days at the start of a New Year to get back into the swing of work and make business visits to the US etc., it makes sense that very soon we should be hearing about the US deal.

Of course, you may be right - it could be the China/Hong Kong SDA (State Drugs Authority) approval - great news as well because MDW already have the distribution partners on board in Asia and have shipped out a full range of products (so I would guess that with the global export experience of the board, they know that SDA approval is a formality).

OG

OG

Thanks for that. Just been splitting the terminal up which seems useful - need bigger screen though. Upside to downside ratio? Up to 40p; back down to 7.5p? Looks a v.g. ratio (10:1). Good patents? Competitive activity? Royalties payments? Expect you've gone to bed though!

Eric

Eric,

Still here - MDW have always operated a collaborative approach with companies operating in a similar field (see RNS's on Sonosite etc. for further info.).

Good point on patents and royalties - I don't have any details to hand, though will endeavour to find them - unless you get there first!

Cheers

OG

OG

Thanks again! Turned in before you! Dipped a toe in this morning though and popped 75K in the closet. Could be a good swim!

Eric

Thanks guys, got some at 8.35p last week and again this week at 10p, have I got the timing right for once!! If I have a large part is down to this thread helping my research. We could all enjoy an excellent year with MDW (hopefully).