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LEADCOM, a real growth company (LEAD)
PapalPower
- 07 Dec 2005 07:57
18th October 2007 : Leadcom voted "AIM International Company of the Year for 2007"
Main Web Site : http://www.leadcom-is.com/
Investor Relations Email : investorsinfo@leadcom-is.com
PapalPower
- 14 Feb 2006 06:11
- 96 of 955
Couple of posts on AFN, both very relevant to the LEAD story, the basics of course are, LEAD is still very undervalued, and I agree 100%.
Highly Geared - 13 Feb'06 - 23:12 -
Just some thoughts on potential scenarios. Latest forecasts are 4.85p EPS for 2006 (pe 13.6) and 6.31p (pe 10.46)for 2007. Latest info` based on historic pipeline conversion gives implied sales of $140 million which might give 6p EPS or current PE of 11. Hardly demanding for a growth company.
If you are optimistic on big potential contract wins (2 potential contracts mooted at $30M +$50M ), these would probably transform turnover, possibly pushing upward toward say $200M. What this would do to profits/EPS is difficult to decipher but probably looking at EPS of 8.5p+. Put on a modest growth PE of 15 and you have 127.5p without any froth.
All conjecture I know but demonstrates the upside from what is a sensible current base. What would be beneficial would be another major contract win around results time with good forward look statement and a rerating to around 85p- 1.
Good progress over last few days and looks set fair for consolidation/upward momentum from these levels.
All the best
___________
Holdontight - 13 Feb'06 - 23:44 -
"We upgrade 2007 estimates too. We raise our sales target from $125m to $150m (up 20%) and the normalised PBT from $15.4m to $16.5m (up 7.1%) a margin rise from 10.6% to 11.0%. We leave the dividend forecasts unchanged"
$16.5 mill = 9.7 mill, less 30% tax = 6.8 mill / 99 mill shares = 6.9p EPS x 15 multiple = 103.5p.
HOWEVER 1......LEAD is constantly exceeding even upgraded forecasts. If we take JUST THE LATEST upgrade alone, which was increased by 7%, then...
$17.7 mill = 10.4 mill, less 30% tax = 7.3 mill / 99 mill shares = 7.4p EPS x 15 multiple = 111p.
HOWEVER 2.......Maintained growth rate now warrants a multiple of 20x and liklihood is that 06/07 earnings will actually be upgraded by 15%.....
$187.97 mill = 11.2 mill, less 30% tax = 7.84 mill / 99 mill shares = 7.92p EPS x 20 multiple = 158p
150 target by end 06 is reasonable. 100p by mid year is equally so. Any BIG contract win ($50 million ish) will see 200p easily.
IMO, DYOR, NAG etc
Highly Geared - 13 Feb'06 - 23:12 -
Just some thoughts on potential scenarios. Latest forecasts are 4.85p EPS for 2006 (pe 13.6) and 6.31p (pe 10.46)for 2007. Latest info` based on historic pipeline conversion gives implied sales of $140 million which might give 6p EPS or current PE of 11. Hardly demanding for a growth company.
If you are optimistic on big potential contract wins (2 potential contracts mooted at $30M +$50M ), these would probably transform turnover, possibly pushing upward toward say $200M. What this would do to profits/EPS is difficult to decipher but probably looking at EPS of 8.5p+. Put on a modest growth PE of 15 and you have 127.5p without any froth.
All conjecture I know but demonstrates the upside from what is a sensible current base. What would be beneficial would be another major contract win around results time with good forward look statement and a rerating to around 85p- 1.
Good progress over last few days and looks set fair for consolidation/upward momentum from these levels.
All the best
___________
Holdontight - 13 Feb'06 - 23:44 -
"We upgrade 2007 estimates too. We raise our sales target from $125m to $150m (up 20%) and the normalised PBT from $15.4m to $16.5m (up 7.1%) a margin rise from 10.6% to 11.0%. We leave the dividend forecasts unchanged"
$16.5 mill = 9.7 mill, less 30% tax = 6.8 mill / 99 mill shares = 6.9p EPS x 15 multiple = 103.5p.
HOWEVER 1......LEAD is constantly exceeding even upgraded forecasts. If we take JUST THE LATEST upgrade alone, which was increased by 7%, then...
$17.7 mill = 10.4 mill, less 30% tax = 7.3 mill / 99 mill shares = 7.4p EPS x 15 multiple = 111p.
HOWEVER 2.......Maintained growth rate now warrants a multiple of 20x and liklihood is that 06/07 earnings will actually be upgraded by 15%.....
$187.97 mill = 11.2 mill, less 30% tax = 7.84 mill / 99 mill shares = 7.92p EPS x 20 multiple = 158p
150 target by end 06 is reasonable. 100p by mid year is equally so. Any BIG contract win ($50 million ish) will see 200p easily.
IMO, DYOR, NAG etc
Ted1 - 14 Feb 2006 11:41 - 97 of 955
The shaking's not working, more buys than sells now.
Hold on tight boys and girls.
Hold on tight boys and girls.
PapalPower
- 14 Feb 2006 16:56
- 98 of 955
Ted very rough and quick figures :
Rollover of 15K is 30K of volume.
Approx over 60K are sells and approx over 100K are buys.
The drop in the price means yes, tree shaking ahead of results next week, expect it to bounce back later this week, strongly.
Rollover of 15K is 30K of volume.
Approx over 60K are sells and approx over 100K are buys.
The drop in the price means yes, tree shaking ahead of results next week, expect it to bounce back later this week, strongly.
PapalPower
- 15 Feb 2006 01:13
- 99 of 955
I am not expecting too much retrace, as you can see today there was a rollover, and the MM's know when more are coming, so they will naturally (esp after a rally) put the price down so those on T trades if they sell get a low price. Opportunistic MM's will not miss a chance for picking up T trade sells at a low price, it all depends now on how many T's come due this week, and how much buying pressure they get hit with, they can only try this on T trades if they do not end up getting short on stock of course.
For those who can and like to be contrarian, now is the time to buy in more, as the chance on this retrace will not last long I think.
coeliac1 - 15 Feb 2006 15:20 - 100 of 955
I value your expertise on this stock PP. Thinking ahead to the results how much of the new business and therefore profit is in the current sp do you think?
PapalPower
- 16 Feb 2006 00:53
- 101 of 955
coeliac1, I would say not much. If you take the calculations in post 96, you can see there is plenty more to add in. At present stage with no further confirmed contract news, I would say fair value at 100p, so at 65p, there is pleny in the tank, and of course, some more contract news will expand the tank.
coeliac1 - 16 Feb 2006 11:05 - 102 of 955
ok PP, thanks. I feel comfortable with this stock and have at last taken the plunge.
Here's hoping.
C
Here's hoping.
C
PapalPower
- 16 Feb 2006 13:00
- 103 of 955
Welcome on board coeliac1.
L2 is 4 v 1 so its strong and we could be moving up again late afternoon or tomorrow, results next week as well, and those results, being the first full year ones, and also being a maiden div, should draw much wider appeal to LEAD.
L2 is 4 v 1 so its strong and we could be moving up again late afternoon or tomorrow, results next week as well, and those results, being the first full year ones, and also being a maiden div, should draw much wider appeal to LEAD.
coeliac1 - 16 Feb 2006 13:52 - 104 of 955
I don't have L2 so 4 v 1 is lost on me. I have looked at the fundamentals too, and that, together with the upward general momentum, gives me an optimistic feeling.
PapalPower
- 16 Feb 2006 16:19
- 105 of 955
4 v 1 means its strong, and buys can easily move the price up.
coeliac1 - 18 Feb 2006 19:31 - 106 of 955
Looking forward to next week with this.
PapalPower
- 19 Feb 2006 09:42
- 107 of 955
coeliac1, we should be looking forward to the year :) Although results will be good, whether there is an instant reaction or a reaction over the following weeks is never clear. I would expect some contract news soon, hopefully one of the big ones, and on top of this there are new brokers forecasts and reports, so next week but also next month should be good.
coeliac1 - 20 Feb 2006 13:22 - 108 of 955
PP
Looks a bit quiet on the run up to the results rather than undue speculation. I am fairly optimistic both short and medium term. Any price target thoughts?
Looks a bit quiet on the run up to the results rather than undue speculation. I am fairly optimistic both short and medium term. Any price target thoughts?
Ted1 - 20 Feb 2006 15:51 - 109 of 955
We have movement has someone seen the results?
Only 3 days to go.
Only 3 days to go.
PapalPower
- 20 Feb 2006 16:24
- 110 of 955
Coeliac1, its now stated to move. No price targets as the market is fickle sometimes, its should be over 100p, but I would be happy to see it move to around a 75p to 80p trading zone after results, and then over 100p in the autumn (spring would be nice, autumn would do :) )
Ted1, yes, started to move now, roll on Thursday !
Ted1, yes, started to move now, roll on Thursday !
coeliac1 - 21 Feb 2006 09:41 - 111 of 955
certainly looking positive in advance of the results.
PapalPower
- 21 Feb 2006 12:16
- 112 of 955
It is coeliac1, someone was in for a T trade buy this morning of 90K at 67.25p, hopefully this buyer wants more, and we should see another move up today or in the morning.
On earnings and profits and growth, LEAD remains very undervalued going forward.
On earnings and profits and growth, LEAD remains very undervalued going forward.
PapalPower
- 21 Feb 2006 12:38
- 113 of 955
First buys at 70p and going well :)
PapalPower
- 21 Feb 2006 23:33
- 114 of 955
Finished strong on L2 so would expect a move up tomorrow at some stage.
PapalPower
- 22 Feb 2006 15:44
- 115 of 955
Well, results tomorrow, and I am expecting them to be excellent with a solid and strong outlook, and we should move on up from there.
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