Nitefly
- 15 Sep 2003 10:55
Why are we again at 10.5p bid?
It doesn't add up...
Good Results + Strong buying pre results + Christmas online buying soon = Price drop
Then again some companies that have debt for equity hanging in the balance, poor results and bankruptcy around the corner and they go up!
Why sell now at a loss?
Wont that be a kick in the teeth when we see 13.5p 14p again!
Best of luck all.
Fundamentalist
- 25 Mar 2004 09:48
- 964 of 2406
Tokyo
The calculations I did are quite simple:
Profit/No of Shares = EPS
Share Price = EPS * PE Ratio
So for each anticpated level of profit you can calculate the EPS by dividing by the number of shares in circulation.
Once you have an EPS you can calcualte the current PE ratio by dividing the share price by the EPS
Or you can calculate the potential share price by multiplying the EPS by the anticipated PE Ratio.
Hence, potential share price = profit/number of shares * pe ratio
Obviously there is no set rules as to what PE Ratio's shares will trade on. It is also quite difficult with Tech shares to determine which level of profit to use. For long term value I am happy to use operating profit (assuming the balance sheet is OK), however, if this is hugely dimished in the short term by exceptionals/ammortisation then this value is not likely to be seen in the share price in the short term. For eg the diff between RTDs basic and ajusted EPS is 0.5p to 1.3p, giving a diff PE ratio of 38 to 15 . As i've said before with shares like this I only use as a guide, for the short to medium term the share price is going to be determined more by whether the results are in-line/ better than f/cast and what future opportunities look like. (and whether the MMs play games).
Having had a quick look at Chelford, it appears that they will make a small op profit but a loss after ammortisation and you will struggle to value this company on this basis. I assume on the recent share price rises you are expecting good results - let me know your thoughts (its a share on my watchlist).
Hope this helps
PS with regards to RTD, remember one of my calcs had the share price as low as 13p so I hope its not that one we see!!! Like you, I have great belief in RTD and continue to hold for the long term.
Tokyo
- 25 Mar 2004 15:40
- 965 of 2406
Fundamentalist - thanks for the calculations formula, applied it to Chelford, and decided it was best to be out of it,at least for the short term (I think the MM's will play the same games they did with RTD after the results were posted) & with thr RTD price back around the 19 pence mark just thought I'd top up with another 20,227 shares.
good luck to all RTD holders and here is hoping that some new contract news is just around the corner
Douggie
- 26 Mar 2004 14:49
- 966 of 2406
Hullo what spoookd RTD at 1430 steady days trading most buys then splot DOWN 0.75p friday too!!! :o[[[
robstuff
- 29 Mar 2004 09:56
- 967 of 2406
According to the chartists, next stop is 14p but i reckon we're really near the bottom, interest is waining but the next trading update may renew interest, anyone know if they're likely to give news on the 1st quarter or is this just at the co's discretion? they may want to give the share price a boost.
Fundamentalist
- 29 Mar 2004 10:19
- 968 of 2406
RTD have never issued quarterly updates in the past so there is no reason to expect one this year - i think we will need to wait for the half year results (9th Sept last year but a trading update in early july) for the next bit of concrete evidence as to the continued growth. Until then, Director/institution buying and/or contract announcements would be nice (however RTD rarely announce new contracts except in their results/trading updates)
robstuff
- 29 Mar 2004 10:28
- 969 of 2406
Thank's for that Fundamentalist. Could be looking at a dead six months then. For some short term spec action try DES
Douggie
- 29 Mar 2004 16:52
- 970 of 2406
:oO)) blue against trades as reported!!! now that is a pleasing close ;O)))
Tokyo
- 29 Mar 2004 17:00
- 971 of 2406
nice to see a blue finish, not much but every little helps
Fundamentalist
- 30 Mar 2004 12:11
- 973 of 2406
Bit premature Overgrowth - back testing support at 18.5p again
Fundamentalist
- 30 Mar 2004 12:11
- 974 of 2406
Douggie
- 30 Mar 2004 12:22
- 975 of 2406
whooops someone spoke too sooon now ..18.0p.... ;-((((((((((((((((((
robstuff
- 30 Mar 2004 12:27
- 976 of 2406
14p looks likely now.
Fundamentalist
- 30 Mar 2004 12:30
- 977 of 2406
This drop has happened on quite low volumes - fundamentals still solid - but the short term is going to continue to be messy - holding for the long term.
robstuff
- 30 Mar 2004 13:21
- 978 of 2406
looks like pretty heavy selling to me, falling fast, will buy if hit 14p soon
Fundamentalist
- 30 Mar 2004 13:22
- 979 of 2406
Not a good day for RTD - Robbie Burns has sold out and it appears he still has a lot of followers!!!
javidshaik
- 30 Mar 2004 13:50
- 980 of 2406
its through the support level now! not looking good.
javidshaik
- 30 Mar 2004 13:54
- 981 of 2406
robstuff - why would you buy at 14p? if it goes down further then their is no guarantee that 14 will be supported. my advice is never average down. yes rtd is a good company but that doesnt stop it from going down further than 14p. i would suggest you buy once it has past a resistance point.
apple
- 30 Mar 2004 14:02
- 982 of 2406
RTD Why??????????????
Lots of panic today, is there some bad rumour?
Hope long term still good.
Maybe this is another buying opportunity but scary.
robstuff
- 30 Mar 2004 14:15
- 983 of 2406
tide has turned, may now have seen bottom..big buys coming in