overgrowth
- 13 May 2005 16:36
Retail Decisions are
market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They
produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally,
though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers
both in the UK and US.
They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be
a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this
"forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout
2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and
Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of
millions of shares in RTD !
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Shares Magazine had
a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is
about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution".
It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.
Here's what Shares
had to say:
"Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing
credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit
and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but
also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in
your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions.
Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime.
Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump
is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities
seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains
concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already
has fantastic experience and technology.
The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that
it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer,
T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner
of Macy's and Bloomingdales.
Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business
in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low
single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."
Retail Decisions have
continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz.
fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices
and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams
from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through.
In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over
their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company
is doing.
The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software
is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success
in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is
being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real
gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.
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Fundamentalist
- 28 Sep 2006 18:52
- 965 of 1009
2.50 a tad optimistic imo - would be almost double the SP when takeover talks commenced and an unrealistic takeout price based on fundies imo. Expect the takeout price to be 200pish (max 10p either side)
Flackwell Vialli
- 28 Sep 2006 19:24
- 966 of 1009
I'd echo the cynicism over the FSA - What will it take to have an effective body in this country, maintaining a level playing field as far as possible for all market participants ?
Over to you Blair................
Douggie
- 28 Sep 2006 20:39
- 967 of 1009
:o))))))))
Douggie
- 29 Sep 2006 08:59
- 968 of 1009
HI fred are you out counting your chickens ,,,?1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9... I'm having a go
but scared of droping my basket and loosing a lot.... my foresight is not nearly as good as my hindsight .....;o/
pachandl
- 29 Sep 2006 09:01
- 969 of 1009
Mentioned in the DT albeit w/o any mention of take-over price (but reading between the lines it would seem to be around the 200/210 mark).
pachandl
- 29 Sep 2006 16:15
- 970 of 1009
Goodness me - I was almost spot on (200/210). Makes a change!
Douggie
- 29 Sep 2006 16:21
- 971 of 1009
is that it then end of story ...?
55011
- 29 Sep 2006 16:47
- 972 of 1009
Just the end of the beginning.......................
storergroup
- 29 Sep 2006 16:50
- 973 of 1009
so what are people doing then??
staying or going?????
Douggie
- 29 Sep 2006 17:23
- 974 of 1009
looks like we will have to wait 'till mid Jan for our 205p !! .. ;-/
Douggie
- 29 Sep 2006 17:24
- 975 of 1009
any comments Fundy to help we lesser knwlegable punters out .. ;o\
pachandl
- 29 Sep 2006 18:29
- 976 of 1009
Personally I don't blame Clumpy. The market consistently under-rated RTD so he has simply used that to his advantage. Unless a hostile bid comes in he is entitled to say that his offer has valued the company fairly. Sweet revenge I suppose!
optomistic
- 29 Sep 2006 19:12
- 977 of 1009
Douggie, if you don't want to wait until January for the cash you can always sell now on the market. If you don't think there is likely to be a further bid you will then have the cash to use elsewhere. Then you will probably know that, but some will wait for the conclusion of the deal to save the trading commissions, but the interest that could be earned in a bank may be more than the commission.
Well done on your holding and for being so patient although sometimes by looking at your posts I think you must have been a little worried on the odd occasion.
Cheers
opto
Fundamentalist
- 29 Sep 2006 20:07
- 978 of 1009
Opto, douggie, pachandl and anyone else who has held on well done :-)).
205p per share seems a decent price to me, theyd still be at 150ish if the takeover wasnt about. Personally would take the 200p from the market, why wait 3 months for an extra 2% (unless you think a hostile counter bid will come in)
Fred1new
- 06 Oct 2006 12:27
- 979 of 1009
Any news of a counter bid? ICV says wait for documents. May be I am greedy! But Douggie you can now have that holiday in peace.
biffa18
- 07 Oct 2006 19:28
- 980 of 1009
well thats it i think cant see much more scope in waiting so sold my 250tho but never saw them go thro bit strange that ! good luck for the rest of you
pachandl
- 09 Oct 2006 11:04
- 981 of 1009
Still vacillating at present - to sell or not to sell? I have decided to hold on for the moment. Any hostile bid would take about 2 weeks to get organised properly and the sp seems to be supported by the current bid. If nothing happens by mid next week, will then sell.
Fred1new
- 09 Oct 2006 11:36
- 982 of 1009
I dropped another half of original hold and bought chunks of AHT and ADN (worth a look.) could be 30-40% up on them in short term (2-3mths). Also punted a small amount (V.Small) on SEO.
pachandl
- 09 Oct 2006 13:11
- 983 of 1009
I have been in and out of SEO, with some reasonable profit. I will check ADN, thanks. Currently looking at getting back into FTO (once sp has stabilised).
pjstanton
- 11 Oct 2006 13:52
- 984 of 1009
Just received the "Recommended Proposal" document.
So, just 205 pence in cash. Had expected more, but honestly I will be glad to be rid of them.
Peter