LONDON (AFX) - Chaco Resources PLC said it is proposing the reverse takeover
of two Paraguayan companies -- Amerisur SA and Bohemia SA -- from Candey SA and
Daniel Sztern in exchange for 27,322,404 new ordinary shares in the company.
It also plans to raise up to 750,000 stg before expenses in a placing of
36,585,365 new ordinary shares.
The company's shares were suspended on Sept 3 and it said it expects this to
be lifted today. It has called an EGM for Nov 15 to approve the acquisition and
placing plans.
Amerisur holds two oil and gas prospecting permits in Paraguay and is the
registered applicant for exploration and exploitation concession contracts over
the same permit areas. Bohemia holds registered applications for an oil and gas
prospecting permit in Paraguay and for an exploration and exploitation
concession contract over the same area.
The exploration areas covered by these three applications comprise a total of
approximately 48,000 square kilometres of the Curypayty and Parana Basins.
Chaco said these basins extend respectively into Bolivia and Brazil, where
commercial oil and gas production has been established for many years from
similar geological sections.

bhunt,

I have been going from the presentation figures. On slide 32 it says:

>Oil In Place estimated at 9.79 MMBO
>Recovery Factor estimated at 50%

Hence I assumed that 4.895 MMBO are recoverable (50% of Oil in place)

However using 9.79 MMBO recoverable:

54% stake of 9,790,000 Barrels = 5,286,600 Barrels for Chaco
@$10 per barrel in the ground = $52,866,000
Minus the $1m estimated costs gives us $51,866,000 or 30,509,411

475.44m shares in issues is equal to 6.4p per share in the ground.

Moving to the well head, at $35 per barrel the asset valuation is 108,253,529 or 22.7p

The calculations for Alea are unchanged as all figures were stated as recoverable.

Sharesure, if indeed that is the case and perhaps we are looking at 63m barrels in Alea (40% understatement of reserves) then on the Alea field alone we are looking at an in the ground share price of 19.5p

63m recoverable x $10pb = $630m
25% for chaco = $157.5m =92.6m
92.6m/475.44m = 19.5p per share

Not forgetting Stewarts valid point that Paraguay was worth 4p before Colombia even got rolling.

So in summary:

4p for Paraguay
14.9-19.5p for Alea
3.1p for Puerto Lopez

22p-26.6p share price valuation for oil in the ground rising to 85p as the oil approaches the well head.

Those are all SECURED assets, not hopes or potentials. In addition to this if chaco are successful in their application for the larger 2nd field then things start looking very rosy indeed.

DYOR IMO

I wish someone would start to buy-bargain at the current price!

M_P_H, your last post (970), I would disagree with the statement that these are secured assets. I still see these all as potential not actual. The rights are real but the oil is only potential until CHP have drilled and there is flow and a pipeline connection i.e. there is oil revenue coming in. I know that you have differentiated via price between oil inthe gorund and oil at the well head - and I agree with that. I still see potential not secured assets right now.

By the way, I appreciate your work and calculations tx for that. I have posted extracts elsewhere to illustrate the point that CHP is considerably undervalued - so I'm not disputing that. I simply believe that the market will not fully react until the potential is transformed into tangible actuals.

BWDIK, PDYOR.

camlad

MPH = thanks for that - and I also appreciate your efforts to show a noddy how to make some sense of the figures and translate them into an SP estimate.

Now - can you please tell everyone else what a bargain they are missing - preferably before Xmas so that I can buy the wife a pressie.

Well done - thanks again

Baza

Baza, thanks a very informative post.(ie the copy of MPH's analysis above)

It appears that another application is emerging, in addition to Llanos Primavera. It's another "small" one of the size of Puerto Lopez and it appears to be a done deal.

Llanos Primavera application has now completed its 30 day period and if its positive this is likely to be the big one.

copied from From KJKelley

MPH - thanks for your efforts on price analysis - good reading!

What is going on-we should be going up with the new application confirmed by K J Kelly!

Not sure I understand this investing lark - shouldn't they go up on good news and with the shares so undervalued.

Bewildered Baza

Price has gone down because people have been dumping in the last few days,could test 6p again, when it does im`e back in.

pisces,

People have not been "dumping", there have been some sells due to the recent RNS not being as bullish as people had thought it would be. I thought it read well and there is plenty to come, its frustrating but patience is required, read the background , look at the potential.

Did you not see MPH's excellent analysis of the companies assets, asset value of 20p + per share, as more news comes through Alea and the second application will push the price up, the SP refects none of this yet and do not forget Paraguay.

How many shares in circulation - and only 1m traded today = <90k - hardly dumping!!

bhunt,

300k shares traded without that rollover!

cc.

Apologies stewart and bhunt,i need to choose my vocabulary a little better,i am still as excited as you guys about chaco but when theirs money to be banked id`e be stupid not to take it.The fact is i sold at 7.6p because of a lack of response to the news and at the present time my actions seem to be totally justified,all i need to decide now is where the next support price will be.Going by recent charts this should be between 6-7p, maybe you guys could add your valued opinions.

One thing i have noticed as im`e sure many of you have is the spread can be as little as one tenth of a penny with this share, at the moment it`s four tenths although i am sure in the next few day`s this will narrow down.Four tenth`s is a lot of money on a 7p share so i will wait for the correct entry point.

I am no expert - but I have this as an investment share - so am not trading it.

The movement in the short term is of no real consequence - so long as it moves north sooner rather than later - and thats just because I like to see the sp moving in the right direction.

baza

Very quiet today!

Just having a look at the charts going back to 9th september and the overall trend is steadily down hitting 7p today from a high of 8.8p.From 31st october we have a series of lower highs and lower lows despite the recent announcment,also steadily falling volumes,im`e not slagging the stock as im`e keen to see the price go up as everyone else is but from a charting point of view we could see 6p soon without any news.There is very strong support at that price and that would make another good entry point.I know a lot of you are in for the long term ,i just thought id`e give a short term perspective for any potential buyers myself included .

Pisces, you said the other day that you had sold your stake in CHP. Most of us who are close to this stock consider the current sp to be at a considerable discount to where it would be allthings being equal. There is talk that Evolution has shorted it which, combined with others detracting from the recent RNS' is having a dampening effect. After Regal Petroleum, all oil explorers are being ultra-cautious in predicting reserves. On that alone expect the Alea 1 deal to be upgraded to closer to 70m barrels in the near future. You might want to dismiss my comment as ramping; it is not, but at the present time companies like CHP are constrained in what they can say and in how they counter mis-information from those with a vested interest in depressing the sp. As I intend holding for the 1st year to gain CGT savings the current lack of share price action is merely disappointing.