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Out for -8

My Risk control is being stretched to the limit today.. Seems very chopy as off 8am.. I think the market is a bit unsure..

(GBP/USD)

Tellon
I am trading like a muppet today been stooped out twice so your no alone

Hi Hilary would be interested in the source of that chart above
ie the charting software
where did you get that info from?

I am currently short Euro and Cable

Old news ish..

http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/showthread.php?s=&threadid=9552

Or

http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf04/opa4892-04.htm

Looks like FXCM are involced in some option fraud.. I think they where just the broker but intresting read none the less...

Not into forex trading as Hilary knows but stumbled across this when I was doing some research on counterparty risk (for my business) Might be of some interest

http://www.georgetown.edu/faculty/evansm1/New%20Micro/Rime%20New%20Electronic%20FX1.pdf

Paul
Thanks for the link,very intresting.

Anyone else ready to wade in long yet???

Just long cable, but not to sure

Oh well ........ at least one of us will be right in that case. I'm short.

:o)

Foale,

The chart that I posted yesterday was from fx-strategy.com. It's probably worth your while also looking at the Saxobank Market Call each morning.

GBPUSD
Price: 1.8060
Day View
Resistance: 1.8085 1.8105 1.8120 1.8145

Support: 1.8045 1.8025 1.8000 1.7985



Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Bullish: Break of 1.8015 confirmed the move to 1.8095 which was also broken with a high registered at 1.8143. This gives us mixed feelings and further strength is not out of the question. We see support at 1.8045 and this could hold to allow a move above resistance at 1.8105-20 which would confirm a retest at 1.8143 and probably follow-through to 1.8180-95.



Bearish: Although the 1.8095 level was broken the downside still has a chance of resuming. However, we need to be prudent here. First support is at 1.8045 and break here should allow losses to move down to 1.7965-85 at least. However, only below 1.7925 actually confirms a reversal lower and this may not happen today. Below 1.7925 implies losses to 1.7840 and lower.





Week View
Resistance: 1.8145 1.8195 1.8280 1.8420

Support: 1.7925 1.7840 1.7755 1.7650



Further gains were seen above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and also the 1.8095 resistance area. Schaff Trend Cycle continued at 100 while FXS-RSI rallied into overbought territory but is now declining. We continue to prefer to retain our bearish stance with the next stalling point at 1.7650 but must allow for a deeper correction higher to 1.8180-95. However a direct loss of 1.7925 confirms further losses.



Bullish: The pullback higher has been slightly stronger than expected and have reached 1.8143. Although it is possible that this may have formed a cap for the Pound until 1.7925 is broken we must allow for a deeper pullback to 1.8180-95 and if this breaks then 1.8280-00 becomes favored.



Bearish: We do still maintain a longer term bearish view but have been disappointed by the deeper than expected pullback. However, while 1.8180-95 holds and a break is seen of 1.7925 we would then look for losses to move down towards 1.7660 at least and possibly lower.



Month View
(Updated 19th April)

Resistance: 1.8300 1.8605 1.8875 1.9025

Support: 1.7650 1.7165 1.6905 1.6565



The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and expect to see progress to the next support at 1.7650 this week. From there we should see a correction develop but the coming 4-6 weeks looks bearish towards 1.7165.

I find that support and resistance lines work very well with Cable.

If you draw a support line to connect the lows of 12th and 25th March and extend the line through to this current period, it's no great surprise to see where it failed yesterday. Funky science.

Morning all,

Im guessing the

UK: March RPI/HICP inflation report (0930 BST);

Was bad..?

Tellon,

CPI was 1.1 vs 1.3 exp

thanks for the info Hilary..
much appreciated

will look at that site

I already get the Saxo bank info as regular emails

I take it you are short

Hilary fx-strategy...do you take have the online or desktop version of this package

Charts look very impressive

I am short, foale, although I'm perilously close to my trailing stop and might even have been stopped whilst typing this post.

foale,

I only use fx-strategy for their Pro commentary each morning and don't subscribe to any of their packages. I use the free charts available from either FXCM (first choice) or Forex-Markets.com (back-up in case FXCM are down) and add my own indicators and support/resistance lines. 5-minute/5-day and 1 hour/30-day are my favourites.

edit: Incidentally, I don't always agree with the FX Strategy commentary. That's partly because I use different oscillators to them, but they also sometimes tend to say what they think might happen (or want to happen) rather what is actually happening. For instance, yesterday their own oscillator was rising and they were fishing for a short. Then today they expressed disappointment that it hadn't particularly fallen.

Thanks Hilary...all useful info

though still confused how you managed to print the FX-strategy charts


I use FXCM also

That's because I right clicked on the page, then viewed the html source to find the url of the image that they didn't want me to find.

:o)

Ssssssssshhhh.