Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Good morning everybody. Just writing a report and could use a bit of help, please. Is there a free EUR/GBP interactive chart I could access and do a bit of support, resistance and trendlines on? Essentially I am hoping to see if there is a trend emerging for the next 1-3 months. Which would you see as being stronger and why, basically.

Thanks

King is pleased with the tighter lending standards in the mortgage market saying it would be a serious mistake to get mortgage market back to where it was a year ago. This obviously begs the question as to why the Bank of England failed to do anything about it at the time. On wages he says that he was surprised at how little they have responded to higher CPI, cannot be sure it will continue. Talking about inflation he sees inflation hitting 3 percent over the next 12 months and that the period when CPI will be around 3 percent is likely to be greater than previously thought. He also repeated his concern over the rise in inflation expectations. More to come.

P,

Look under "Interactive Calendar" in the thread header. There's a tab for charts in the DailyFX bit. Click on that and take your pick.

Alternatively, go to either ODL Securities or Alpari or InterbankFX websites and download a free copy of Metatrader 4.

Thanks, Hils.

That's your weekly chart, P. I would say it's still going up and the Germans are all still very hawkish. It's the latin countries who are struggling and are dovish but they really should know better than to stand in the way of Germans.

And they won't invade this time: they'll just stop propping up their economies.

Hilary, thank you. Currencies are not something I follow sufficiently regularly to claim any expertise, and your guidance has helped enormously.

( TF ) 04/29 20:17
BoE's Blanchflower dubs 50 billion pound rescue plan 'expensive' UPDATE


- (Updating with further comments)

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The Bank of England's 50 billion pound plan to ease the liquidity drought is 'expensive', a rate-setter on the Bank said.

Referring to the 'haircut', or spread, charged by the BoE when giving banks government debt in exchange for mortgage debt, David Blanchflower said two things are clear:

'A: we give haircuts and B: boy, they're expensive'.

He said the success of the initiative will be seen by whether the London interbank lending rates fall in due course. The three-month Libor rate remains around 5.80 percent, well above both normal levels, and the Bank's base rate of 5.00 percent.

Earlier this month the BoE said it will allow UK banks to swap mortgage-backed assets for secure government bonds, charging 'haircuts' in that the assets swapped will have to be of much higher value than the liquid assets offered.

The comments came after a speech earlier on Tuesday, in which Blanchflower called for interest rate cuts sooner rather than later to stave off a recession in the United Kingdom.

Blanchflower said the pound could weaken further, with some saying the falling currency is supporting the economy.

He said BoE reports 'have suggested that a weakening of sterling has been welcomed, and perhaps a further weakening would also help.'

The pound has weakened against major currencies recently, falling to record low levels against the euro.

The rate-setter also dampened speculation of a rift on the Monetary Policy Committee. Minutes to the Committee's last meeting showed that while Blanchflower voted for a 50 basis point cut, the majority called for a less aggressive 25 BP cut, and two members voted to hold rates. This was only the second three-way split in the MPC's history.

Blanchflower said 'there was a spread of opinion ... but I guess what you should take from it was there was a majority in favour of a cut.'

( TF ) 04/30 07:00
UK house prices 1.0 pct lower than a year earlier - Nationwide


- LONDON (Thomson Financial) - UK house prices were 1.0 percent lower during April compared to a year earlier, the first year-on-year fall for 12 years, according to building society Nationwide.

Higher mortgage rates and tighter lending criteria meant buyers stayed away from the property market during April, causing the average house price to fall 1.1 percent from March to 178,555 pounds. This means the average price is now 1.0 percent or 1,759 pounds lower than a year earlier, the first time the annual growth rate has been in negative territory since March 1996.

Nationwide chief economist Fionnuala Earley said the fall in prices reflects the steep decline in mortgage approvals seen over the past six months.

'The fall in transactions has pushed up the stock of unsold property on the market and improved the bargaining power of buyers, thus pushing down on prices,' she said.

Yesterday, the Bank of England reported that mortgage approvals during March totaled just 64,000, the lowest level since records began.

Earley added that the fall in house prices is likely to spell trouble for the rest of the UK economy in the coming months.

'With house prices no longer rising, consumers are likely to become more cautious in their spending habits, contributing to a weakening of the overall economy,' she said.

Market Preview: U.S. Dollar Vulnerable to Dovish FOMC Statement, Strategists Say

18:53 04/29 (CEP News) With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to cut short-term interest rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday, market participants will be closely scrutinizing what messages the accompanying statement sends about the future path of rates. Currency market strategists say the U.S. dollar may rally somewhat if the Fed indicates a pause or an end to rate cuts but that the dollar could fall sharply if the Fed maintains a dovish policy stance.

Fed fund futures are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 20% chance of no move in the current 2.25% Fed fund rate. A month ago, the market was divided between a 25 or 50 basis point cut but more hawkish statements from voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee are believed to have erased the possibility of a half-point cut.

Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital, said inflation concerns have been responsible for the shift in market sentiment. Along with a smaller rate cut, Sutton said markets widely expect the Fed to indicate a pause, or conclusion, of the rate cutting cycle.

The market has swung so far to the camp theyre cutting 25 and then going on pause, any kind of disappointment away from that and well see U.S. dollar weakness, Sutton said.

Sutton said the euro could rally to 1.5700 against the U.S. dollar if the FOMC statement doesnt signal a pause. The euro closed the day on Tuesday down 0.0094 to 1.5564 USD.

After hitting a record high of 1.6018 on April 22, the euro has weakened and Sutton said that it could fall another 1.5 cents if the Fed doesnt cut rates or indicates it might not cut at the next meeting.

Should they either not go at all or signal a pause, I think well see a big downward move in the euro from here ... It doesnt mean it will be the end of the cycle, they might still cut in September or August, but it would be a dollar positive, Sutton said.

If the Fed takes a more wait-and-see approach, the euro will dictate the currency pair, Sutton said. If its a little bit left up in the air, well see moderate U.S. dollar strength for awhile and then the focus will really shift to Europe.

The recent turnaround in equity markets and improvement in credit markets have led many to believe the Fed could but wrapping up rate cuts and that the U.S. dollar has bottomed out. The euro has gained 6.75% this year and 31.1% since the start of 2006 against the U.S. dollar.

A currency trader in Toronto told CEP News the U.S. dollar has started to recover in anticipation of a second-half turnaround.

The Fed is still going to be concerned about growth, the economy and the credit crisis but in the past few weeks sentiment has really started to turn. There are signs the credit crisis is improving and that the Fed wont need to cut rates anymore. Inflation is a growing concern and I dont think the Fed can just keep cutting, the trader said. Youre going to see the U.S. dollar start to recover in the short term because theres a sense the U.S. economy has started to turn the corner. I think it will outperform in the next 3-6 months.

The market, he said, is heavily skewed towards some scenario that indicates a pause so if the Fed continues to cite downside factors in the economy, the U.S. dollar could suffer. The risk is that if theyre dovish youll probably see a much bigger move the other way, he said.

He said a statement that points to more easing could easily spark a two-cent rally in the euro against the USD, while rhetoric indicating a pause might only bump the dollar towards 1.5500.

In a note to clients, RBC Capital Markets senior currency strategist Matthew Strauss noted the same skew.

With the market already discounting a bottom in the Fed Fund rate at 2.00% -- and the possibility of a hike before year-end - the upside potential for USD is limited, he wrote.

Although Fed fund futures are pricing in a 20% chance of no cut, it would be a big surprise, according to Adam Boyton, a senior foreign exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank AG, the worlds biggest currency trading firm. He expects the U.S. dollar to shoot up 0.5% to 1.0% if rates are held steady but said it will later prove to be a selling opportunity.

No cut at all would be quite supportive for the dollar on the day but ultimately I dont think that will signal the big turn in the dollar because we think the economy will suffer further and the Fed will cut further, he said, adding he expects the euro to hit 1.65 in 3-6 months as the Fed eventually lowers rates to 1.50%.

Strategists are divided on exactly how the Fed will signal that inflation risks have increased while still demonstrating the need to cut rates. They say knee-jerk market reactions to the decision may create opportunistic volatility.

In the past, the Fed has used a variety of ways to foreshadow a change in policy. Officials could cite the cumulative 300 basis points of easing since September and note monetary policy works with a lag, they could reference stabilizing market conditions or they could warn of rising inflationary pressures.

The Fed took a wait-and-see approach at the end of the rate hiking cycle that ended in June of 2006, saying, The extent and timing of any additional firming will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

Scotia Capitals Sutton said the market is hungry for a pause and will make an effort to read one into the statement.

As long as it hints at a pause, that will be taken as a pause, she said.

The FOMC rate decision will be announced at 2:15 p.m. EDT on Wednesday.

So it is Wednesday Hils! Staying out now - unless I get a quiet patch to look back in.

I was confident that it was Wednesday, Seymour. It's just that on Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning there seemed to be an abundance of articles suggesting that traders were sidelined in a lacklustre market ahead of Tuesday's FOMC decision.

I'm really not sure what planet some of those journalists are on.

Incidentally, Adam Button who wrote the CEP article above is on the right planet.

Goodluck H for moscow,i hope you stuff them manc`s,

Come on the blues !!!!!!!!!

Lovely ride on cable this afternoon. Didn't get it all, but that's why a good day on Fx beats scalping stocks - for me anyway.

Thank you, Dazzler. My head's a bit sore this morning.

Sign on, sign on.

:o))))))))

06:47 GMT, May 01 2008 | Posted by Mark Mitchell from London
Well did they or didn't they ?


With Europe off merrily enjoying their May day celebrations and most probably making a long weekend of it, don't expect too much activity this morning. The main question that everyone is asking this morning, is did the Fed signal a pause or didn't they ? In my opinion they did neither like a good central bank should. They are as much a hostage of data as us commentators and traders are and if we see data deteriorating further in the eight weeks before the next meeting they will cut further, but if the figures don't they will stand pat. So in my mind it's time to move on to the next items, which are today's US ISM and tomorrow's Non Farm Payroll data. Eur/usd seems content to stay within a 1.5600/50 band for now, with a lot of chatter talking about a retracement back up to the 1.57 handle after failing to pierce 1.5510 yesterday.

Priscilla,

If you're lurking, this might help with your report.

07:33 GMT, May 01 2008 | Posted by Mark Mitchell from London
A sign of things to come ?



It may not be the largest of the Eurozone economies, but the PMI from Ireland does make for interesting reading. We have already seen falls in the flash estimates for the French, German and Eurozone indices, but we will have to wait until tomorrow for most of the weaker peripheral economies to report.

The Irish Manufacturing PMI fell to 44.7 in April from 46.0 in March. This is it's lowest level in the ten year history of the report. The details look even worse with the sharpest fall in new export orders for almost 5 years. The weakness was attributed to the weakening of global economic conditions, increased competition and the strength of the Euro against Sterling. This should give everyone a heads up for weak numbers tomorrow as we get the reports from Italy and Spain. The peripheral economies are in freefall and the ECB doesn't seem to care. Eur/usd selling by a Swiss and US name has pushed Eur/usd easily back down to 1.5566 and just like that 1.5510 looks more likely than 1.5700.

Hils, is that a subscription site, because they're right on the money? I was short EUR/USD this morning and closed off well before the current bottom, again should have held on for a bit more but haven't got all my indicators properly set up at work yet.

Mkt looking for large sell stops below 1.5500 on Eur/$ before US Open. I mention this as there may be a good opportunity to reverse and catch the rebound. JT

I'll mail you a link later, Seymour.