The tiny Irish stock on the brink of landing 'the first' post-sanction oil deal in Iraq. Ref 'Fleet Street Letter' 12-04-04..

drunker - for that look at the latest trades on the right, and work it out from there, you can see when it is likely to drop or rise with what MM's are on what price, I'm quite getting into using this, thinking about upgrading!!

Tokyo

thanks tokyo - ho by the way i like reading your posts

Evening all,
Found this on another bb from a respected poster,a call that was made to PET earlier today. Dexter

Hi all, yes and had a brief chat with JT (no one else available). Sounded very upbeat but as expected unable to give any indication of timings of forthcoming announcements. Talked of a "sharpening of pencils" and quite normal procedure re the fine tuning of tenders during the Amman discussions. Ended by telling him he had my continued support throughout this period of uncertainty for which he said he was grateful! Don't think we'll get any more than that folks

Thank you all for your advice, and the spread bet was 107p december.

Eric

We have long-term plays and we have short-term plays and quite often a share can be both. The whole point of this piece was that we were looking for stocks which might one day be bigger than Ben Hur that if you put a few away and forget about them there's a chance one could make you rich beyond even your wildest dreams. Some of us have too many years on the clock already to make this an attractive proposition, but the youngsters might fancy their chances.

It's only three weeks or so since a few of us sat down in a certain share-shop in Leeds and talked about this, that and the other. We had one chap who won't buy anything outside the 250, and mostly not outside the FSTE 100, a lady who has never owned a computer and looks up everything in the hard-copy version of REFs, and a certain gentleman who's not interested in anything that doesn't involve making a hole in the ground (or sea-bed). People have different perspectives and we try to cater for them all.

Will the Petrel story really end with the Iraqi contracts? Did Microsoft end with its first IBM deal? I guess we all have to make up our own minds.

Shares Ed

Jeremy

Great response! Much appreciated. Point taken: will probably take the profit and leave the original stake longer term. My first share, singular, was an IBM one, earned out of income in the 1960s: I think it cost about $150 and took several months to buy! I also remember IBM buying in a PC operating system from a tiny company called microsoft in the late 1970s, just to save a bit of time! And now we have Shell and the others standing by, out of corporate fear, while the Irish minnow lands the gusher! Glad you've visited this bb - will expect to see Tokyo and dexter featuring in Shares when (not if!) the gusher is landed!

Eric

Thanks Eric - always good to have constructive dialogue.

Jeremy

Eric and Jeremy,
Thanks for your complimnent, thats two of the best posts i`ve read in a long while, both balanced and contructive, keep it up.
regards,
Dexter

Eric and Jeremy,
Thanks for your complimnent, It is fantastic that PET is now attracting the more seasoned investor, Dexter and I did keep this thread going in the quiet periods by doing alot of research, e-mailing & bothering PET (sorry about that John & David), but we have both stated that we don't consider ourselves anywhere near seasoned, in my case junior (with an inquizative nature)at best. I have a considerable interest in PET and thankfully over the past few months have had alot of spare time to hunt around, but seasoned investors can bring both a more constructive and balanced view to this thread, I hope to be reading alot more of your posts in the weeks/months to come.

Tokyo

A very interesting read before the first coffee of the day!
Thank you for sharing, I had seen the phone report on advfn and can vouch for the authenticity of the poster there.

Tokyo, dexter, I am off to the shops in a mo to get a collectors item (the share mag 'before' you two get published). Having brought the occasional copy of said mag, would it be fair to say an entry in the mag on a positive note should give a little upwards movement? I appreciate the controlling that is happening with the price, but there appears to be no upward trading numbers, or would it be fair to say the sharks are swimming but not biting? RNS the bait maybe.

watcher

Morning watcher,
If you manage to get a copy i`m Tokyo and myself will be more than happy to sign your copy !!!!.
Dexter

Just come across this, could be interesting bearing in mind PET`s links with Jordan and Iraq. It`s from www.arabicnews.com.
There could be some other good stuff on there, have`nt had a chance to delve too much.
Dexter

Iraqi- Jordanian committees for co-operation, key projects approved
Iraq-Jordan, Politics, 11/4/2004

In its first meeting, the Iraqi- Jordanian higher committee chaired by the two countries prime ministers Eyad Allawi and Faisal al-Fayez approved the formation of cooperation committees in various fields and drawing the grounds of infrastructure projects of strategic significance for the two states including the installation of an oil pipeline.

Al-Fayez and Allawi signed the minutes of meetings of the first committee in Amman yesterday in conclusion of a meeting which was shortened only to one hour because the two premier were obliged to head for the UAE to give condolences on the death of UAE President Sheikh Zayed Bin Sultan al-Nahyan.

According to a statement circulated by the Jordanian government, the two sides agreed to implement key projects including the rehabilitation of the Jordanian al Karamah border center and the Iraqi Treibel border center, establishing linking al-Aqaba and the Iraqi borders, expanding al-Aqaba port and establishing a free zone at the Iraqi- Jordanian borders and railways links between the two states, establishing the Iraqi- Jordanian crude oil pipelines.

Moreover, ten sectoral committees were established covering military, security, trade, transport, oil and energy, financial co-operation and banking, IT, health cooperation, education and scientific researches, labor and training fields and encouraging investment between the two countries.

Tokyo and dexter

Thanks for the compliments - great to be linked with Jeremy as a 'seasoned investor'; can you have a greater compliment? I wouldn't have expected the 'Sleeping Beauty' article to attract short-term investors; the whole point was to promote them as a long-term play. Still a bit odd to see them there as you wouldn't buy them to lock away at the present time. Mind, if the argument is to hold some or all of them when the news breaks, it could well be excellent advice. Get drafting that success story for the Shares issue of 2nd or 9th December! One approach could be to extract quotable quotes from this BB (OK, Shares?).

Most encouraging post at 980, particularly as the original poster is confirmed as reliable. Sharpening the pencils, eh. Implies two things: (1) quite a lot of re-writing of the tender document; (2) being in a state of readiness for signing the contract, although that will need a pen (will the Irish know that?). No negative images at all. We are back to an all-embracing quiet confidence. Any more of this and I will be applying a CFD!

Eric

Eric, Im Irish lol, but no offence taken, but be warned we use pencils as an instrument of torture on occasion (see Blackadder series 2) :)

Livvy

That's a relief. Mind, my mum-in-law was a lovely lol Irish colleen whom I loved dearly - so I have a penchant for them! :) (don't understand it, but thought I would take risk of adding it).

Eric

Eric: Re your exchange with Shares - I can only add that there was some key research missing...the Iraqi Oil Ministry have announced that contracts will be awarded in November followed by signing in December (all in 2004). Plus I am not sure you should put any share under the mattress (which implies forget about it until some future date) let alone some of the high risk ones they have listed. Perhaps they have in mind the placing of a few hundred pounds stake on PET and the others whereas some of us have far, far more at stake, so it kind of ups the anti when you look at it from that perspective! As for the rating 2 stars out of 5! Uuummm....

John

John
I appreciate your point but leaving the original stake in place for the medium to longer term (end 2005?) doesnt preclude regular checks, albeit not on a daily/hourly level as of now! I am guess that most will opt for some liquidity in December followed by a 6-9 month rest - for the rest. Thats my plan anyway.

Still not sure about the apportioning of cash-in and residual shares.
Might continue to hold 15000-20000 down from my current 32000. Any thoughts?

Livvy: Thanks your response. Difficult for me to offer advice as everyones position is unique to them. May I suggest however that you take the value of your overall portfolio and determine the % of a stake you are prepared to leave in any one investment. I know many people who like to take out their orginal investment and leave the balance to run, but again it depends on the situation as there really are many approaches. I recently took some profits on another Oil share that had risen significantly in order to balance the portfolio, in that particular case I left around 50% running...BUT continue to watch all the time. The only way I would leave any investment unmonitored is if I had running SL's in place. Quite a few brokers now enable you to do that, so it takes the danger away...so to speak.

I have just been reading my weekly copy of MoneyWeek and there is a very interesting article on 'The scary reality about saudi's Oil'. It repeats last Sunday's Torygraph article by Liam Halligan...essentially we are likely to see Saudi's Oil exports starting to drop within the next six to 36 months. It concludes by saying that Oil at current levels may soon look very cheap indeed. All this information seems to suggest that if PET can pull this off they really are onto something really BIG.


John

Tokyo re your fag packet calculation of 3 Nov, c&p'd below;



03 Nov'04 - 14:16 - 949 of 995

joehargan1 - Take a look at PET's website, click on 2004 slides, go to slide 17, you'll see with a 30% chance of risk sharing they price the shares at 3.30pounds, of course if it a risk sharing agreement straight away then in reality we could be looking at 10 pounds a share on just one tender, but very speculative, really depends on what people are willing to pay, and if the majors make a play for PET.

Just for fun do these sums (I did a while ago and came out with crazy numbers, as I was only looking for 4 pounds a share)

number of barrels per day (120,000) x 365 = 43,800,000

43,800,000 x $60 (a barrel) = 2,628,000,000

*note - DH has already stated Any reasonable terms (say 30% production sharing) could literally be worth billions given the size of structure and relatively fast time to develop giving existing infrastructure. Petrel has few shares in issue (only 66m fully diluted).


2,628,000,000 - 70% = $788,400,000

$788,400,000 / 66,000,000(shares in issue) = $11.94(EPS)

Earnings per share = $11.94 x 10 (P/E ratio) = possible SP of $119.40

$119.40 = 65 pounds


With the above maths you can see the potential, but until the RNS is released and we know what we are dealing with, I'm afriad they just remain silly numbers

Also remember if they get a risk sharing agreement, they are still a long way from being able to pump the oil out of the ground, so 10 pounds a share seems more likely until the oil starts flowing.


The numbers were meant only for fun and to show what could happen in the future, and not for anyone to use now as investment advice!!!!


Good luck all

Tokyo



I am an avid reader of your posts and admire them greatly along with many others on here. You are an excellent source of info in these hazy purgatorial days!

HOWEVER, and I know you always correctly say DYO, I may have spotted an slight error (quite a big one too!!).

You put in $60 a barrel. Then you go straight to eps and do a simple multiplication. Surely 60 is revenue? Costs have to be deducted first before you can skip along to eps??? Which would surely bring your valuation of 65 down considerably. I have no idea as to what % of a barrel of oil is achievable as a profit margin, so I won't do the calculation myself.

I am hoping that I have totally made the wrong assumption here, but would be grateful if you could comment. Believe me I will be delirious with excitement if your calcs prove to be correct, cos I may not be in at the amount you are but my miserable little pile of PET shares would definately make a difference to my life at 65!!!!!!!

I am wondering if there are aspects to the 30% risk-sharing agreement mentioned that make it indeed correct to put $60 a barrel in as clear profit?

Here's hoping I am indeed an numpty!!!!

Beasties

PS I've just multiplied my small heap of shares by 65 and I think i may be having a heart-attack. Call an ambulance.......