Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Hil: The exchange rate isn't the source: it's the indicator.

I don't think that the dominance of China in manufacturing has fully penetrated the American (or, indeed, British) consciousness. I have a mound of anecdotal evidence to support this. Manufacturing industry in the UK has been slaughtered. It's the same in the U.S. It's almost impossible to buy stuff that doesn't say 'Made in China' on it. Even Apple's iPhone carries the legend 'Designed in California, assembled in China'. Within a few years, Airbus will assemble in China.

Trade barriers are, of course, just a palliative: the symptoms of the disease will be temporarily numbed, but the underlying disease -- uncompetitiveness -- will rage on.

Even in these times, there is hope for the UK -- or London, in particular. It is still the world's financial capital -- now, if we could just have a Government that isn't so stupid as to attempt to destroy that as well, with their envy politicking.

Both EUR JPY & Fiber at interesting points now - the former hitting resistance at 163.00 and the latter struggling with 1.5485.

Interesting chart SC,

I think E/U is going to retrace higher before it moves into a medium to longer term downtrend. Either way, I'm standing aside from it at the moment. See what the news brings later today.

As for E/J, I think it is all set up for a significant move down and have been monitoring when to get in for a medium term trade for a while. I'm short from 162.72 with a view of build up a decent position in it as it continues to move down. (Hopefully! )

Hi FF, I've found the last two days really hard, whipsawed all over the shop. Didn't help by making a stupid "broke the rules" trade on Tuesday which gave me a small loss! Thanks for your thoughts on E/J. I'm probably not going to make any trades today, then have a look over the w/e.

Over last week, I've not been making too many day/intra-day trades as I'm focusing on trying to program some Automated Strategies in Tradestation.

It's easy to program the strategies - making them profitable is another matter! The quest goes on ....

Hope your stop's at b/e or better FF! Looks like we're rangebound for today. Made my day's modest target, not so good for the week though.

Incidentally for anyone doing intraday plays E/J has been nice to trade from 10pm to midnight most nights this week.

After the 100 pip move in my favour I then moved the stop to b/e.

Hopefully won't get hit but like I say, I think in the medium to long term E/J is heading down so if I do get stopped out I'll look to reposition at a better level.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A rising dollar fell hard Friday after a sudden jump in global oil prices and a report that showed U.S. consumer sentiment at its lowest level in decades.

Data out early in the North American session Friday was positive for the dollar. U.S. home construction turned up unexpectedly in April, an apparent sign of optimism for the sickly housing sector.

But then a University of Michigan/Reuters report indicated U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in 28 years in May. Adding to the gloom, global crude oil prices pushed toward record highs when Goldman Sachs cranked up its forecast for oil prices in the second half of 2008.

That was all the signals investors needed to sell the dollar before going home for the weekend.

The euro jumped as high as $1.5602 against the dollar, the first time it notched above $1.5600 since May 1, while the greenback fell more than a full yen against Japan's currency. The dollar recouped some of its losses late in the afternoon, but not much.

Currency analysts said they even had their doubts about the idea that the data showing a rise in U.S. home construction should be viewed as positive for the economy and the dollar.

"That it went up was not a good thing," considering there is already a bloated inventory of unsold homes, said Andrew Busch, global foreign exchange strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago. "You want to see home sales go up. So, (the home construction data was) actually a negative."

Friday afternoon in New York, the euro was at $1.5586 from $1.5458 late Thursday, while the dollar was at Y104.20 from Y104.66. The euro was at Y162.40 from Y161.79, according to EBS. The U.K. pound was at $1.9552 from $1.9482 late Thursday, and the dollar was at CHF1.0475 from CHF1.0561.

The dollar's slide amid higher oil prices reminded investors that a tight, inverse relationship still exists between the dollar and prices for crude, despite some deviations from this general rule in recent weeks.

"Who said the dollar-oil relationship has faded?" asked Ashraf Laidi, chief foreign exchange strategist at CMC Markets in New York. "Just because currency markets' focus was centered at last month's Federal Open Market Committee statement and the imaginary signs of a pause in interest rates does not mean that they've abandoned the increasingly important dynamic of oil."

Despite the dollar's gyrations, its week-long ranges against the euro and the yen were breached only slightly on Friday. Analysts said next week could be marked by more range-bound trading.

There is little important U.S. economic data due out next week. Instead, investors will keep an eye out for speeches by Federal Reserve officials, with the hopes of finding clues about where interest rates are heading.

Also out next week, on Wednesday, are the minutes from the Fed's latest FOMC meeting, when the policy-setting committee cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.0%.

In other currencies, the Canadian dollar moved slightly above parity with the U.S. currency on higher prices for oil, an important export product in Canada.

Late Friday, the greenback was at C$0.9996 from C$1.0010 late Thursday.

The dollar's weakness Friday also allowed the U.K. pound to make a bit of a comeback after it fell to a nearly four-month low against the dollar Thursday.

Analysts said next week could be marked by more range-bound trading. groan :-(

Calendar above for tomorrow hasn't fully updated.

Mon
May 19 GMT
00:00 AM NZD New Zealand's Performance of Services Index (APR)

GMT
01:30 AM AUD Preliminary BoP Imports s.a. (MoM) (APR) 1.0%

JPY Bank Of Japan Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%

GMT
04:00 AM JPY Bank Of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting

GMT
04:00 AM JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting

GMT
05:30 AM JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR) -0.7%

GMT
05:30 AM JPY Nationwide Department Sales (YoY) (APR) -1.2%

GMT
06:30 AM EUR Bank of France Business Sentiment (APR) 105.0

GMT
09:00 AM EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (MAR) 1.2%

GMT
09:00 AM EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR) 4.3%

GMT
14:00 PM USD Leading Indicators (APR) -0.1% 0.1%

GMT
22:45 PM NZD Visitor Arrivals (APR) -0.3%

GMT
23:50 PM JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (MAR) 0.5% -1.7%

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)-- The dollar has regained control of the wheel, just as some of its rivals appear to be veering off course.

After a week of rangebound trading for the dollar, strategists are mapping out what currencies are most vulnerable to big fluctuations. The dollar proved less volatile this week as some first-tier U.S. data hinted at economic recovery, thereby lending support to the greenback.

"After significant movement and volatility in the first four months of the year, we're heading into a range-trading environment. The center of gravity (for the euro) appears to be around $1.55," said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America in New York.

Next week, amid a shifting global outlook, the dollar is expected to trade within a range of Y103.50 and Y105.50.

The euro will consolidate inside this week's range between $1.5350 and $1.5550, currency analysts said. Crucial data that may provide some much needed momentum include Germany's Ifo business climate index and ZEW economic sentiment indicator.

Friday afternoon in New York, the euro was at $1.5592, up from $1.5458 late Thursday, while the dollar was at Y103.88, down from Y104.66. The euro was at Y161.98, up from Y161.79, according to EBS. The U.K. pound was at $1.9563, up from $1.9482 late Thursday, and the dollar was at CHF1.0453, down from CHF1.0561.

Currency analysts are beginning to look at how each individual country is weathering the financial market turmoil at this juncture to distinguish the good bets from the bad, because long-held assumptions just aren't playing out.

The euro zone's economic outlook is starting to quiver as the U.K.'s crumbles. The commodity bloc currencies aren't behaving consistently, and long-held market correlations with oil and stocks aren't as strong as previously.

"We've gone away from the big thematic trades and really gone into an environment where individual currency analysis does matter," said Sinche.

Perhaps the most poignant example is the performance of the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar recently.

The two currencies are typically grouped together - the countries are geographically close and both of their currencies are characterized as commodity-based.

Yet, retail sales reported Thursday in New Zealand fell at their fastest quarterly pace in 11 years in the first quarter of 2008, significantly undershooting the median forecast. Earlier in the month, data showed Australian retail sales rose a stronger-than-expected 0.5%.

There are also signs of slowing growth in Australia, but its currency has moved up against the U.S. dollar recently, while New Zealand's has declined. Australian dollar rallies continue to provide selling opportunities as real sector data suggest the economic cycle is turning down, analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said.

"We are breaking down the risk and carry-trade mentality and instead really focusing on each country individually," said Sinche.

Another go-to indicator for the dollar versus the yen, U.S. stocks, appear to be losing reliability. The dollar did not reap the same benefits it would have some weeks back on recent gains in equities.

"Over the medium term the influence of equity markets on (the dollar versus the yen) and (the euro versus the yen) is anticipated to diminish from the current extreme highs (of the past). The trigger point for a breakdown in this relationship is likely to be an easing of monetary policy by the central banks of high yielding currencies," such as the European Central Bank, said analysts at BNP Paribas. They also noted that several ECB policy makers have already commented on slowing growth, "which together with the likelihood that inflation has peaked in the euro zone, will give the ECB room to maneuver in the months ahead."

Analysts also said the traditional relationship between oil and the euro has weakened. Oil prices pushed to all-time highs this week, but the euro benefitted only slightly. The dollar couldn't be knocked from its stronger range below the euro's recent historical high of $1.60.

"We believe that these are the initial signs of these relationships starting to break down, which will have significant implications for foreign exchange markets," said BNP.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar rose against the euro Monday, boosted by more gains in U.S. stock markets and a report suggesting the U.S. economy may avoid a recession.

After opening the New York session lower against the euro based on concerns over U.S. consumer confidence, the greenback made a quick rebound Monday morning with the release of a report from the Conference Board, a private research group.

The group's Leading Economic Indicators index rose by a modest 0.1% in April. Though not a big gain, it at least met economists' expectations and suggested to worried investors that the U.S. economy is at least not contracting.

Stocks rallied and the dollar followed, with the euro declining more than a full U.S. cent after the data was released. The dollar also climbed against the yen.

Currency analysts expressed surprise that the second-tier report gave the dollar such a big boost. They said the move implies that speculative investors such as hedge funds are muscling the market, taking short-term profits when they can in what has become a less volatile market.

"The leading indicators data is not normally a market-moving report," said Geoffrey Yu, currency strategist at UBS. Since it was a quiet session until the data was released, Yu said traders were "perhaps looking for an excuse to sell the euro and take profits, and the data served that purpose."

Monday afternoon in New York, the euro was at $1.5513 from $1.5586 late Friday, while the dollar was at Y104.30 from Y104.20. The euro was at Y161.79 from Y162.40, according to EBS. The U.K. pound was at $1.9481 from $1.9552 late Friday, and the dollar was at CHF1.0535 from CHF1.0475.

Even with the dollar's gains against the euro and the yen, the greenback remains in the same tight ranges it has been in throughout the month of May.

Analysts say data out of Europe Tuesday may create more robust price action for the dollar against the euro.

Germany's ZEW indicator of economic sentiment by financial analysts and institutional investors is due Tuesday, followed by the Ifo report on German business confidence, to be released Wednesday.

The two German reports "may prove instrumental in determining the next turning point in the (euro)," says Ashraf Laidi, chief foreign exchange strategist at CMC Markets.

Elsewhere, while Canada was on holiday for Victoria Day, currency traders took the Canadian dollar to its highest level against the U.S. currency since mid March.

The U.S. dollar fell to C$0.9900 early in the New York session as Canada's currency benefitted from higher global price for oil.

But the U.S. currency's broad rebound later in the session allowed the dollar to recover somewhat. Late Monday afternoon, the U.S. dollar was at C$0.9925 from C$0.9996 late Friday.

The Australian dollar continued its ascent against the U.S. currency Monday as higher prices for gold boosted the currency of commodities-rich Australia.

The Australian dollar reached as high as $0.9568 during the Asian session Monday, its highest level since March 1984. But again, the U.S. dollar's broad rally during the North American session prevented the Aussie from extending those gains.

Late Monday in New York, Australia's dollar was at$0.9530 from $0.9545 late Friday in New York.

Elsewhere, the U.K. pound continued to struggle, even after a report from Rightmove that indicated the average asking price for a home in the U.K. hit its highest level in almost six years in May. Economists were skeptical that the data signaled any end to the U.K.'s housing woes.

Euro having a good run up this morning. Been playing with EUR/JPY the last few days, mostly on the short side. Luckily closed everything last night or might have been caught out while travelling to work this morning.

jeffmack- looks abit of a ceiling at 163 for the last month

Jeef, I've also been playing with Euro Yen recently, more to the long side! - just the way it was when I look in.

Agree 163 looks like a tough nut - may try & post a chart later for people's thoughts.

I've been in and out on E/J over the past week too, always from the short side. I was expecting a big move down, though the recent strength may force me re-evaluate tomorrow it it doesn't happen. I've recently re-shorted from 162.95.

eur/jpy just broken 163!

And some

Pah, missed it - and I felt it in my bones it was going to go. Not having a good day here - was long Fiber instead of cable this morning - bad decision no. 1, then missed the boat on E/J :-(

Work doesn't half get in the way of trading....

taken a profit, doesnt look very convincing to me, seeing abit of divergence on indicators........probably take of now!