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June 12, 2008
Irish 'yes' camp confident - if people come out for treaty vote
David Sharrock, Ireland Correspondent


Irish leaders were campaigning up to the last moment yesterday in a desperate effort to persuade waverers, with final polls showing the “yes” and “no” camps in the referendum running neck and neck.

“People realise it’s a big decision,” Brian Cowen, the Taoiseach and Fianna Fl leader, said on the eve of the vote that is seen as pivotal to the EU’s future. “As we come closer to the day, I’ve always held the belief that the common sense of the Irish people will win out in the end.”

Today the Irish Republic will decide the fate of the Lisbon treaty. Every vote cast is absolutely vital to the outcome of a contest in which less than one per cent of the European Union’s population endorse or reject a blueprint salvaged from the wreck of the European Constitution.

Mr Cowen has been striving since the weekend to present a united front, with more than 90 per cent of the country’s elected politicians endorsing a “yes” vote on the ground of the benefits, past and future, that Ireland reaps from EU membership.

The message has been clouded by the confusion over what is in the treaty and what it will mean for Irish people. The “no” camp insists that it will sound the death knell for the Republic’s low-tax regime that has made it so attractive to US multinational companies.

“Europe has been good for Ireland, Ireland has been good for Europe, and . . . I can confirm without any equivocation there is nothing for us to fear in this treaty,” Mr Cowen said in Longford, in the Irish midlands.

Senior Fianna Fl strategists are predicting a “yes” victory by a slim margin, but they admit that the turnout will be crucial. In 2001 the Nice treaty referendum was lost, an outcome attributed to a poor 34 per cent turnout, which was deemed to favour the “no” camp. The referendum was rerun a year later and the “yes” camp won in a 49 per cent turnout.

That means that the formidable Fianna Fl electoral machine will be working flat out today, with party workers ferrying and chivvying voters to the polling stations.

A senior party figure said: “We are predicting a 52-48 per cent share of the votes in favour of a ‘yes’. An Irish Times poll of last week which put the ‘no’ camp five points ahead actually did us a favour. It galvanised our party machine and we detect that since the weekend the ‘no’ vote has peaked and we are resurgent.”

This would follow a pattern set in last year’s general election when Fianna Fl started badly but gathered momentum to win its third consecutive victory under Bertie Ahern. Mr Ahern was forced to resign last month over lingering questions about his personal finances.

Ireland is the only EU state constitutionally obliged to hold a referendum. Finland, Estonia and Greece became the latest EU countries yesterday to approve the Lisbon treaty by parliamentary vote.

Mr Cowen has cleared his official diary tomorrow to deal with any potential fallout from the result. He was to have attended a peace conference in Donegal.

Foxey,

I've noticed something about the alert box in the MTF version of the MACD crossovers.

Because it links using iCustom, changing the alert settings does nothing whatsoever. The only way of adjusting the alert at the moment is by changing the coding of the main indicator.

If anyone is unsure about the significance of the Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, may I suggest they revisit some Euro charts from the spring of 2005 when the French and the Dutch held their own referendums about an earlier treaty and said an emphatic "No".

As I recall, the selling was relentless. The Irish vote should come in around tea time and it is expected to be very close because of the turnout.

No

The Irish Justice Minister Dermot Ahern conceded that the Irish voters have rejected the EU's Lisbon treaty.

So where should we put our money Hils

Under the mattress for the moment, Jeffie.

Cable - Weak sell
Fiber - Flat. Stops from earlier short triggered with US CPI. Might be trying to rally
EUR/JPY - Strong sell from early this morning so potential for further gains may be limited
USD/JPY - Weak sell. May gain momentum this afternoon
Gold - Weak buy. May gain momentum this afternoon

Thanks princess, tell me where to put my money, Banks not paying enough interest

Stick it in a nameco and start underwriting at Lloyds of London, Jeffie.

edit: You can still have it sitting in the bank earning interest for you even while it's comitted to Lloyds. It's a bummer if there's a bad hurricane or terror attack though.

This might be of interest to some

Free Forex Training

What charts do you use for oil , gold etc Hils / anyone ?

Cheers

ODL MT4, Dilbert

Ta sweetie.

I sometimes use a Fibonacci retracement to enter the market, but have been frustrated by the standard MT4 lines which only show the Fibo level but don't show the price.

I did a bit of digging and discovered that inserting %$ into the description in the object box will print the price.

You should have asked Hil - I knew that - one of the few things I do know about MT4!!!

I'm normally the last person to suss the easy things out, Seymour. It only occured to me at the weekend that I could make my desktop a bit bigger by dragging all of the toolbars into one line and removing a few of the icons that I don't use. Doh!

Did you get my email yesterday, btw?

Yes I did thanks - a bit busy but will reply tonight/ tomorrow when I get a mo.

Hils,

Sent you new version of MTF indicator last night. Did you get it?

Yes. Many thanks, Foxey.

I've been running it and can see a problem with it. I've taken a screenshot which I was going to mail over to you a bit later this morning.

Presumably Spencer Dale will be a dove????

edit: No. It appears he's a hawk, moulded from King.