markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
markymar
- 22 Jul 2004 10:57
- 99 of 6492
The Falkland Islands have seen excitement wax and wane but most
geologists reckon there is oil in big quantities offshore if only it can
actually be discovered.
Westmount Energy (WTE) owns big stakes in Desire Petroleum (DES)
and Sterling as well as a couple of other companies, making it a safer play
on both West Africa and the Falklands.
Desire holds exploration blocks to the north of the Falkland Islands
which it hopes contain 2.4 billion barrels of recoverable oil. They are
part of the Falklands Trench, an ancient valley which is believed to have
filled with deposits from tributary rivers.
Seismic surveys on some of the bigger targets were completed earlier
this year. The results are being analysed by computers at the moment
and will be released next month. 3D seismics have made big advances in
the past 20 years, but they can never guarantee a sandstone reserve holds
oil rather than water. Even so, Desire plans to farm-in a major partner if
the results are good.
At 33.75p Desires market value is 54 million and has already
ballooned this year. Assuming, say, a 10% free carry, the company could
one day be worth over 1 billion could be. The smart approach is to run
the shares but take some profits ahead of the news in August.
Falkland Island Holdings (FIH) announced last month that its joint
venture with Global Petroleum and Hardman had been joined by hedge
fund RAB Capital which will fund the exploration budget for the next 18
months. A number of promising leads in water depths of 400 to 1,850
meters have been identified. Analysts say these reservoirs could hold
between 200 million and 2.5 billion barrels of oil.
The joint venture plans a 3,500 km survey which might be expanded.
The licenses cover 33,700 sq km and are located to the south and east of
the Falklands. No wells have been drilled in these areas but two wells in
the adjacent Malvina Basis to the west have been successful with oil
flows of 3,000 barrels a day.
These areas therefore look more promising than the waters to
the north of the islands which were explored without joy between 1996
and 1998.
SHARE MAG TIPPED TODAY.
ptkenny
- 22 Jul 2004 13:22
- 100 of 6492
As excitement builds over major potential oil reserviors in the north falkland basin, rumour has it that penguin cleaners are on standby and are equiped and ready to fly out from RAF Brize Norton at short Notice. OIL IS THERE! Definitely a buy!
Andy
- 22 Jul 2004 19:52
- 101 of 6492
Bought an initial small holding today with the spare cash in one account.
Should the news be as expected, I will be adding to this in due course.
markymar
- 23 Jul 2004 11:10
- 102 of 6492
North Falkland Basin: High Risk for Good Prospects
July 21, 2004
by J. Brock (FINN)
NORTH FALKLAND BASIN: HIGH RISK FOR GOOD PROSPECTS
By J. Brock (FINN)
With the Board of Desire Petroleum announcing on Tuesday that fast track processing of the 3D seismic survey carried out in tranches C and D in the North Falkland Basin comes the anticipation that detailed interpretation will provide excellent ionformation as to where Desire will sink their first exploratory well. According to the press release, the re-worked and detailed analysis of the data will form the basis of farm-out negotiations with potential partners. It is expected that the data will be ready for this process at the end of the year, and the new year could see a rig brought down from Brazil to sink the first well, this according to the last interview Dr. Colin Phipps had with FINN.
Data and samples collected from the North Falkland Basin show that, while thick, the source rock, when penetrated in the right place will generate hydrocarbons. Dr Phipps had indicated that in many cases, the wells drilled thus far did not completely penetrate the source rock an oversight that is not likely to happen during the forthcoming exploration.
Its crunch time. One would hope that the rig will be placed above the right spot and a huge oil reserve will make investors very happy indeed. However, it is likely that any potential source will be capped while experts further analyze the data and samples. Dr. Phipps maintains that another well would be commercially drilled instead of using the one that was capped. That analysis could take months but the wait for an oilfield could also take years to realise. This depends on several factors.
When the oil companies pulled out of the North Falkland Basin in 1998, the price per barrel of Brendt Crude was averaging $10.00 per barrell. Now it is four times that amount. To break even in 1998, the industry needed an oil price of $14.50 per barrel now, nearer to $16.00, with some sources quoting higher. Who knows what the price per barrel will be by the time the oil is found and extracted commercially.
Though todays oil prices may be conducive to sinking more exploratory wells, the North Falkland Basin is considered to be a frontier area. The costs of bringing in rigs and other infrastructure needed for the industry are tempered by time and transport prices. In our case, a rig must be brought in at great expense. This simply cannot happen overnight.
An excellent exploratory result also must be weighed against the need to extract hydrocarbons. Other oil provinces are generating enough oil at present to meet world demand. This could further change if exploration in those provicnes is fruitful. Good business decisions to opt for a frontier area need to be made on good financial advice, the preponderance of which points to investing in known provinces. If the risk of investing in a frontier area is too great, investors will opt for investments in oil provinces.
Conflicts, wars and politics also play their part in assessing whether or not a hydrocarbons industry can go ahead in any area. Though there is no conflict in the Falklands area at present, the costs of meeting political demands could outweigh any desire to do business here, for example the 3% tax the Argentines want to charge for commercial hydrocarbons taken from the North Falkland Basin. That issue still hasnt been resolved.
There is an element of risk in any investment that you make, whether it be in the Mid-East, West Africa, or the North Falkland Basin. We Will not know whether weve got oil until that all-important gusher is reported. That takes many attempts, not just the exploratory wells that have already been drilled. It is my hope that those who take the risks for the oil industry here will have that happy ending.
Captguns
- 23 Jul 2004 20:42
- 103 of 6492
Personnel thanks for the artical Markymar, the Capt lurks but does not post.
Captguns
- 26 Jul 2004 10:53
- 105 of 6492
Early / Mid August. probably 5+ weeks. Looking forward to bringing home my hammock!!
That 2nd article was the interview done in the Falklands?? No reply from FIBS.
As ever the Capt. maybe making 2 + 2 = 6
Captguns
- 26 Jul 2004 11:25
- 107 of 6492
Meic will keep me up to date hopefully, + a fat parrot. E-mail yes but stocks and shares surfing on the internet are filtered. They are considered as gambling!!
Look forward to your news.
Captguns
- 26 Jul 2004 16:35
- 109 of 6492
Thanks for trying Markymar, I have to remain under cover , I hope you understand.
JPDM FORTUNEMAKER
- 26 Jul 2004 21:27
- 111 of 6492
Here ya go folks, latest targets:-
Ladies and Gentlemen,
OK, in the last few weeks we've seen a bit more news bubbling and taken on board some new players too. Time to put my neck on the line again.
We are still probably a month+ away from any definitive news but the ball is rolling and during August I'm expecting that news flow will increase.
PX Targets
Rest of this week, well, px has again tried to test 38p without success and unless something comes from Shell tomorrow which refers to Falklands I envisage this stock 'sulking' back a bit so px range this week 34p - 38p
I think its unlikely to sit any lower than this but intra day this stock does have a habit recently of dipping before support drives it back up. I for one will be buying like mad if it does briefly fall below 34p.
First week in August, well, I'm in Iceland so I'll miss the fun but my pricing model indicates a very substancial price move up! I've re-run my numbers and still I get the following:- 42p - 46p.
So in summary for next 5 - 7 working days looking to suggest slight dip near term then very end of week/start on next a concerted push straight through the 38p level.
Please keep the comments and info coming. I for one am now getting very excited about this stock.
Good luck and happy hunting folks
JPDM FM
ehall
- 27 Jul 2004 22:40
- 114 of 6492
JPDM, you've called this one so spot on it's uncanny! Looks like tomorrow AM could be a good time to buy (what do you think Stu?), good luck with the job hunting, not much call for city boys in Devon I'm afraid!
markymar
- 30 Jul 2004 09:51
- 115 of 6492
Oil industry targets South Atlantic.
Repsol-YPF Argentinas main hydrocarbons producer and other foreign companies will be investing over 300 million US dollars in oil and gas exploration in the South Atlantic and offshore Buenos Aires province during 2005.
Strong international oil prices and the liberation of the natural gas price in Argentina are seen as the main driving force behind the new push following one of the countrys worst energy crisis that forced serious restrictions in overseas natural gas shipments particularly to Chile.
According to the Argentine press, French owned Total Austral, Wintershall from Germany and Anglo-argentine Pan American Energy will be investing in the coming nine months 114 million US dollars in the austral basin, Southwest Atlantic.
The group already has invested 256 million US dollars in the area and expects a production between 4 and 7 million cubic meters of natural gas from seven wells which will be drilled beginning next September.
Respsol-YPF has also plans to invest 70 million US dollars in the austral basin taking advantage of wells drilled several years ago and which remain locked.
Further south, offshore Tierra del Fuego, several of these companies will continue exploring the area which is rich in natural gas.
Repsol-YPF associated with the American company Pioneer has plans to explore for hydrocarbons offshore Buenos Aires province, once the Argentine government gives the official authorization. Petrobras is also interested in the same basin.
This is the less developed of Argentine basins but some exploratory drilling has signaled the possible presence of hydrocarbons, said Walter Schmale president of the Argentine Oil and Gas Institute.
But Mr. Schmale also pointed out that to make findings drilling is essential, but this means favorable geological, price, fiscal and contract certainty conditions, since the oil industry works with a future horizon and an offshore project demands between 7 and 10 years before reaching production
markymar
- 02 Aug 2004 12:43
- 117 of 6492
markymar
- 02 Aug 2004 14:27
- 118 of 6492