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We don't need to be told again Jean Claude

Just in case there is anyone left out there not expecting an ECB rate hike tomorrow, Jean Claude Trichet has spelled it out in nice simple language that even a FX trader would understand. He is on the wires as saying that if the ECB is decisive then we can master the situation, but if the ECB is not resolute, there is a risk inflation will explode. Eur/Usd is testing some light support at 1.5800, which if broken could trigger some light stops.

What Jean Claude does not seem to grasp is that the eurodollar is a key driver of oil prices which is the main driver of inflation. If the idiot cut interest rates he may well find a drop in oil and inflation and prevent a rebellion amongst member states screaming for a cut imho

I'm not too sure that I would agree that the Eurodollar is a driver of oil prices, Falcothou.

Surely it's the Tiddleywinks and the Indians who are driving oil prices up coupled with the current political instability in the Middle East. This in turns weakens the Dollar because the Yanks are major oil importers (Driving Season is just around the corner). If the Eurodollar happens to benefit from the weak Dollar, then surely that is just a secondary benefit (also bought about by the positive carry).

And if JCT were to cut interest rates (which he won't), then it might appease the Micks'n'Spics who are currently suffering, but overall it will only serve to fuel inflation further.

A few years ago I came across a map of Europe which I posted up on the Traders Thread which suggested what the ideal interest rate actually was for each of the EZ countries. As well as being quite interesting, DelBoy asked of the source which I seem to remember was that it had been produced by Datastream for The Torygraph.

Would you know how to find it DelBoy? I know you have a secret stash of interesting images somewhere on your PC.

:o)

Hi Hilary ,
Agreed the eurodollar is not the be all and end all of factors affecting crude but it is one of the big 4 geopolitical, Us inventories, speculation http://www.cnbc.com/id/25484628

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2008/07/02/will_trichet_drive_the_world_over_a_cliff

Hil:

I know you have a secret stash of interesting images somewhere on your PC.

Errmm, yes. Most sent by you, as I recall, Hil :)

I'll have a poke about.

Today's been the worst day for whipsaws in ages. I've ringed them all in pink.

The only thing that's trended has been UKX at the bottom right. Everything else has traded within a range half of normal.

( TF ) 07/04 16:38
OUTLOOK Coming week to make for grim reading in the UK


- LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The coming week, though not particularly busy, is predicted to make for grim reading, showing that the UK economy is indeed faltering.

The gloomy state of affairs will underline just why the Bank of England remains unable to hike interest rates even as inflationary pressures continue to build. The central bank is almost universally predicted to keep its base rate unchanged at 5.00 percent for the third month running when its verdict is revealed on Thursday noon. While arch dove David Blanchflower is seen gunning for a rate cut, none of the other 8 rate setters are likely to be convinced, what with oil prices scaling new heights close to $150.


MONDAY, JULY 7

-Starting the week, UK industrial output is predicted to have dropped 0.1 percent in May from April, and by 0.7 percent year-on-year, partly due to the warm weather which would have weighed on the utilities sector.

In April, there were gains of 0.2 percent for both the monthly and annual comparisons.

The manufacturing sector meanwhile is expected to show no change on the month but a 0.1 percent drop from May last year, in line with weak surveys of the sector from the Confederation of British Industry and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. The figures are likely to be far worse if not for the effect of a weaker pound.

In April, there were gains of 0.1 percent for both the monthly and annual comparisons.


WEDNESDAY JULY 9

-Wednesday is seen bringing some good news with the UK's trade position predicted to improve a touch. The May trade gap is seen narrowing to 7.4 billion pounds from 7.6 billion the previous month. Taking away the EU, the shortfall is seen narrowing to 4.0 billion from 4.2 billion.


ALSO DURING THE WEEK

-Also during the week, the outlook for the property market is expected to get murkier. Following on the heels of steep falls in Nationwide's survey of the sector, HBOS unit Halifax's equivalent is predicted to show more of the same. A 1.0 percent month-on-month fall is seen in June, taking the annual rate to a 6.0 percent decline. May recorded falls of 2.4 percent and 3.8 percent respectively.

Is cable going to break down from 1.97. Whats your magic numbers saying Hils

a small short at 1.9690

80/20 down sl 1.9728, Jeffie.

sl at 1.9730

cheers

sl 1.9722 now Jeffie.

Hils
I have the ODL package but as I cant get it at work not really played with it. I thought it only did FX but you say it does ftse and uk shares.

Ive just ordered one of those mobile broadband usb sticks from vodafone. So I can take my laptop to work and look at some real time data that I cant get on work pC

Just trying to log on to ODL but ID/PWD ok but says invalid account bottom right and Waiting for update in graph window.

Jeff, have a look in Mailbox messages to check all your details are correct.

Nothing there SC

I am still logging in to the demo version, do I need the live version

No, demo still has live prices & it's what we all use. Suggest you uninstall and download again from the email link you were sent.

When did you last use it, Jeffie? The demo will expire if it's not used for a month or two.