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How to profit from Betting Exchanges (BEX)     

Scripophilist - 27 Oct 2004 23:40


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Mr Euro - 20 Jun 2006 13:16 - 9910 of 10502

Just to double check.....

Lets assume I think Germany will lose, if I back Ecuador 1000 at 9.

If then the price moves in to 8 I want to close. If I lay 1000 @ 8's then I am left with a free bet of 200 if Germany win, and nothing for lose or draw.

If I want to take the profit now, I lay agggggggggggggrrrrrrrrrrrr this is doing my head in. I have just written a spreadsheet and it worked but now I can't understand it!!!!

Help!

Mr Euro - 20 Jun 2006 13:19 - 9911 of 10502

...if I want to take the profit now, I lay 1250 @ 8.

meaning 1250 - 1000 stake = 250 profit correct?

but what if I wanted to green up on all possibilities?

Mr Euro - 20 Jun 2006 13:20 - 9912 of 10502

no the above is wrong.

Fundamentalist - 20 Jun 2006 13:23 - 9913 of 10502

Mr E

Back 1000 at 9.0
Lay 1000 at 8.0

Profit on Ecuador of 1000

To green up, lay ecuador for 125 to be 125 green on all 3 outcomes

Mr Euro - 20 Jun 2006 14:01 - 9914 of 10502

Thanks Fundy, is this correct?

Lets say I backed 1000 @ 13's

Now the price is 4.

So a profit of 9 (13-4) * 1000.

To take the profit (9000) / 4 (the price) = lay at 2,250 and green up on all outcomes for 2,250?

To take the free bet, lay 4 x 250 (covers the stake).

Is that right?

Now assuming it went the other way, from 13's to 14's, the loss = 1000 i.e. the stake. So there is no point in closing the bet whilst the price is above 14's?

Fundamentalist - 20 Jun 2006 14:07 - 9915 of 10502

first bit is correct, second bit is wrong, to have the free bet youve got to lay your whole stake ie 1000 (leaving you with 9k if they win)

Mr Euro - 20 Jun 2006 14:31 - 9916 of 10502

but aren;t you laying the 1000? 4 x 250 = 1000?

Is this bit correct?

Now assuming it went the other way, from 13's to 14's, the loss = 1000 i.e. the stake. So there is no point in closing the bet whilst the price is above 14's?

thanks.

Fundamentalist - 20 Jun 2006 14:37 - 9917 of 10502

Mr E

Back Ecuador for 1000 at 13.0 gives the following

Ecuador 12000
Germany -1000
Draw -1000

Ecuador go to 4.0. To have a free bet yopu need to lay ecuador (you backed them in the first place

Lay Ecuador for 1000 at 4.0

Ecudor 9000
Germany nil
Draw nil

As to the other bit, that depends how attached you are to your thousand 1000. If your prepared to lose it then let it run. If not then maybe at a drift to 14.0 you may decide to lay it back off leaving you

Ecuador -1000
Germany nil
Draw nil.

At this point you could back Ecuador for 71.43 to got 71.42 red on all three outcomes or let it run and hope ecuador dont win

Mr Euro - 20 Jun 2006 14:53 - 9918 of 10502

Thanks Fundy, with you now except for one point:

Ecuador -1000
Germany nil
Draw nil.

At this point you could back Ecuador for 71.43 to got 71.42 red on all three outcomes or let it run and hope ecuador dont win

If following a drift from 13's to 14's, don;t you mean you need to lay Ecuador at 71.43?

If you backed them you would have two positions:

a) 1000 @ 13's
b) 71.43 @ 14's

Fundamentalist - 20 Jun 2006 14:54 - 9919 of 10502

yes but you also have the third position of having laid them for 1000 @ 14.0

Mr Euro - 20 Jun 2006 15:08 - 9920 of 10502

Thanks, think I am with you :-)

I took out a small bet to test it.

Back E 10 @ 8.8.

Now 18's.

If I lay back E into the market 10 @ 18's

then back E @18's @5.11 my loss will be -5.11 and not -10.

How's that :-)

Pommy - 20 Jun 2006 15:08 - 9921 of 10502

Equador aint going to 4 :(

Mr Euro - 20 Jun 2006 15:08 - 9922 of 10502

Peter, can you send me your course/training material please, think I need it :-)

Pommy - 20 Jun 2006 15:10 - 9923 of 10502

im trying to use betfiar on my 6230i, but the server dont respond!!

Fundamentalist - 20 Jun 2006 15:12 - 9924 of 10502

spot on Mr E - i think were getting there ;-)

ps glad you didnt have 1k on ecuador ?

Pommy, just checked my end, no prob connecting to betfair mobile on my pda

Mr Euro - 20 Jun 2006 15:13 - 9925 of 10502

Tis only 10 to test :-)

Pommy - 20 Jun 2006 15:14 - 9926 of 10502

Funda
im block from betfiar here, have you got a phone number to ask them for help, i only loaded the java applet this morning and have had it working yet!

Mr Euro - 20 Jun 2006 15:17 - 9927 of 10502

From UK 0870 0110 444

Poland are drifting, could be interesting soon if they get to 2's or 3's.

Wouldn't put too much on though.

Fundamentalist - 20 Jun 2006 15:21 - 9928 of 10502

Pommy

doesnt look like youre alone. On the betfair forum there is a thread with a few others with your phone and the same problem

Mr Euro - 20 Jun 2006 15:23 - 9929 of 10502

Just another one to make sure!

Say I backed Poland 100 @ 2
Then CR score.

Poland go to 5's

I then lay it back into the market, do I lay 100 @ 5's?

Then I back them again at for 60@ 5's for a minus 60 loss on all outcomes?
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