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How to profit from Betting Exchanges (BEX)     

Scripophilist - 27 Oct 2004 23:40


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How would you like to trade a market where you get large regular price swings every 10 minutes in the afternoon, seven days a week. A
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Betfair has revolutionised the betting market and created an open platform for exchanging risk on sports events. This market is now viewed much more like a traditional financial risk market than an old fashioned betting market. Smart users have realised that there are huge opportunities on Betfair because they can buy and sell risk in much the same way they would in a normal financial market but without the burden of cost or the restricted access that is usually associated with traditional financial markets.

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Bones - 06 Feb 2005 16:56 - 995 of 10502

Indeed Fundy! (first 20 mins rather than half hour). I didn't think it stacked up but the absence of key players had some bearing on it.

Nonetheless, it seems similar to, albeit a bit riskier than, the France/Scotland rugby strategy that you all piled on yesterday (so would I had I not been out). So what's the "fundamental" difference?

PS It can wait until the course if you are embargoed on trade secrets :)

kajman - 06 Feb 2005 17:01 - 996 of 10502

Bones, I'm new to this but think it's just down to the odds. France were 1.06 at the start of the match - a lot better than Chelsea at 1.32

Bones - 06 Feb 2005 17:04 - 997 of 10502

kajman, I'm sure that is right! You can hardly go wrong laying at 1/16...!

Fundamentalist - 06 Feb 2005 17:09 - 998 of 10502

Bones

agree with kajman, at 1.06 there was very little risk for a nice reward (i believe you could have had 2.1 at one point)

if chelsea had been 1.06 i would have been laying them too

1.06 prices in an expectation of a very easy win, which in play, would require a lead to be taken very early otherwise the odds will drift

kajman - 06 Feb 2005 17:15 - 999 of 10502

Shot by kezman, - no relation :-)

Limpsfield - 06 Feb 2005 17:58 - 1000 of 10502

This weekend is the first time I have traded the sports following Scrip's course as I have been concentrating on the financials and - famous last words - I am finally starting to be consistantly profitable on the intra day FTSE & Dow over the last few weeks after trading like an arse for the first month.

I traded the three six nations game this weekend and the net result is + 25% on the (small) account with wins on the France/Scotland (laying France at those stupid prices as mentioned above) and Wales/England (laying England at any price as they are vastly overrated of course....) I was laying Ireland below 1.10 but got a bit too relaxed with the early Itie strength so that was the small loser.

If you are thinking about going on the course you should do - personally it has been a big eye opener. I am now a betfair sports addict and will be glued to the rugby till Wales pick up the trophy

Fundamentalist - 06 Feb 2005 18:02 - 1001 of 10502

Anyone else take a bath on chelesa or just me?

how does calamity james make a save like that lol

Kayak - 06 Feb 2005 18:02 - 1002 of 10502

Damn, one less sucker in the financials :-))

Limpsfield - 06 Feb 2005 18:05 - 1003 of 10502

lol - don't speak too soon

Bones - 06 Feb 2005 18:25 - 1004 of 10502

Fundy lol - when are you meant to stop your position in such situations?

bakko - 06 Feb 2005 18:27 - 1005 of 10502

Fundy, Sorry to hear you got caught out by Chelsea today. Fortunately for me, I pulled off a nice profit by scalping for a draw during the second half and greening up towards the end.

Its a nice result for both ManU and Ars though. But since I've been active with Betfair I'm finding that my loyalties are with my Betfair statement!!

Anyone on the Superbowl tonight?? I only know a little about American football having following it on a casual basis many years ago. But it could provide interesting pickings as the odds tend to chop and change quite violently as both teams pick up momentum on the field. Liquidity looks good too, with over 1m already placed.

Any views on this??

Fundamentalist - 06 Feb 2005 18:28 - 1006 of 10502

Tough one to call - and as you can see i havent worked it out yet lol.

Scrip - what do you do in this scenario - do you let the loss run or do you stop out after says 10 ticks?

Scripophilist - 06 Feb 2005 18:47 - 1007 of 10502

I was swimming with the kids so watched the match from the pool (not mine unfortunately the club's).

I didn't fancy Chelsea at such short odds with Robben out and Drogba missing. They were not the same early in the season without Robben.

Usually I would have let it run as the odds are that the home team will score at some point. A excellent display by James it appears. It happens every now and again; though you could mitigate a lot of risk prior to the kick off. If your money management is OK you will be fine in the long run.

Fundamentalist - 06 Feb 2005 18:58 - 1008 of 10502

thanks scrip

i didnt back until just prior to half time at 1.7 - i wasnt interested at 1.3 either!!!!

Harlosh - 06 Feb 2005 19:02 - 1009 of 10502

Bakko,

Wondered how you went on with the rugby yesterday. I was beginning to wonder how you would mix your trading with watching Utd. Going to watch games, I'm sure you have realised, could seriously damage your wealth!!

bakko - 06 Feb 2005 19:24 - 1010 of 10502

Harlosh,

I layed a really big amount on France at 1.06 as the risk was quite small. But I got tied up with family matters so I couldn't get to watch the start or get to ManU/Birm game. I fully expected France to win so backed up at 1.12 to realise a potential poxy gain in case the Scots held up. Apparently they played a stormer so could've greened up for a potential profit of well into the hundreds!! I was spitting mad afterwards so will never do favours for the family again!!

Even though I missed out I'm pleased for those on here to have pocketed.

Thanks for searching out initial odds but will keeping eyes out for next similar opportunity.

Regarding going to watch future reds games. Yes, missing out on s. I'm seriously thinking of giving up on the season ticket.

Harlosh - 06 Feb 2005 19:31 - 1011 of 10502

I thought you weren't around when you did not post during the game. I doubt opportunities with risk/reward like that come along very often.

bakko - 06 Feb 2005 19:38 - 1012 of 10502

Yes I agree, such opprtunities are few and far between but I certainly won't miss out again. I'm hoping that when it comes up again it'll arrive in threes! LOL

Scripophilist - 06 Feb 2005 20:46 - 1013 of 10502

Not a day for low backers - Hope the Chelsea match put you off!!

Harlosh - 06 Feb 2005 20:56 - 1014 of 10502

I'm on the Barca v Atl Madrid game. Backed the draw after Madrid scored after 2 mins. Managed to get 4.1. Really strange cos the odds are coming in for the draw instead of drifting. Could have laid at 3.15 at one point. Not watching it but can only assume Barca are all over them. I'm sticking with the draw but might end up regretting it.

Had a funny feeling Chelsea might struggle today but most likey would have backed them but went out for a meal instead. Good decision.
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