Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

When did USD/JPY fall to 80.00? Just after the Kobe quake of 1995.

Japanese insurers typically keep a large percentage of their reserves in higher-yielding overseas assets. If they suffered heavy losses, they would have to repatriate that cash invested overseas.

To review: Don't sell yen on a big Japanese quake, buy with both hands.

UPDATE: The wires report Japanese nuclear plants are operating normally after the 6.8 quake hit Honshu

Today's silly question, is it possible to trade the USDX (US Dollar Index), it looks interesting above 74.

Very wise words from Chocolat in post 9959 above.

Spacie,

I'm sure that it is possible, but I'm not sure who with I'm afraid, nor do I know what the likely spread would be.

Notwithstanding, why do you want to trade USDX? It is very good for identifying the major Dollar downtrend which has been in place now for several years together with the cycles which occur within that downtrend. Something like 52% composition of USDX is derived from fiber and the balance is from the other Europeans except for about 13% which comes from USD/JPY. Any broker who does trade USDX will need a SEK feed as that is used as part of the calculation.

Quite frankly, you might just as well trade a European pair such as cable or fiber.

hils, cant download the book on mq4, do you have any suggestions where else might be able to get a copy. have sent them an email, but have had no response as yet

What book, Gofe? This manual is the only one I'm aware of.

Anyone else having problems with ODL-MT4 right now?

Yes, that's a relief as I thought it was me, Chocopops. Invalid account.

Yep same here :S
Phew!

Actually, I hope they haven't booted us off, Hil - I've had a few emails recently about opening an account, and they appear to have extended their offer, I guess cos there's not much take-up?

Edit: All's well :) Was just in the middle of mailing Mr Newell too.

It's possible that they purge all demo accounts every now and again, Chocopops, as it might well cost them a license fee to keep them open with MetaQuotes. If so, it'll just be a case of re-registering.

It's frustrating as hell though, because I was hoping to get some meaningful data from my EA today. This will have buggered up the sampling for sure!

I do have a backup Alpari a/c for "Condor" moments like this.

edit: Back here too. Not much damage done thankfully, so panic over.

Well he's just replied - system upgrade on the server, should be ok in a few more minutes.

Mine gone also

can also get mt4 at infobank, had mine running since beginning may without any problems, only problem is their bid/spread can go abit wide at times!

Sad news last night that Thomson Reuters are going to shut the FX Hub next Friday.

Are the boys going somewhere else?

Who knows, Chocopops? Jamie Coleman said something about his Facebook page, but I don't know whether that will work or not. I think Mark Mitchell's on holiday atm, so I don't know what his plans are.

Just logging in at the end of my jolly hollies. Real shame about the Fx Hub - I enjoyed the humour as much as anything. Have just about caught up with what's been going on with the automated trading thread as well, you seem to have been doing a lot Hils!

Will be at home Monday to catch up properly.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar is maintaining most of its huge gains against the euro Friday in New York in what has perhaps been its most impressive performance since the credit market crisis began last year.

The euro has dropped to as low as $1.5005, more than 2% lower on the day and nearly 4% lower since the week began. It's almost 7% under its record high of $1.6040, reached a few weeks ago.

The dollar is also sharply higher against virtually all other currencies around the globe, with commodity currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars feeling it the hardest.

The move up comes after nearly a full year of sharp, steady declines in the greenback as the U.S. housing market collapsed, credit markets seized up and fears of a U.S. recession escalated.

The U.S. economy is still in trouble, but fueling the dollar's rebound are signs that European and Japanese economies are now also taking a sharp turn for the worse.

Much of the dollar's gains came after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet Thursday alerted to serious downside risks to euro zone economic growth.

Trichet's remarks have reduced expectations the ECB may consider rate hikes any time soon, and some analysts say rate cuts may now be in the cards, which would likely extend the euro's declines.

"The primary trigger (for the dollar's rise) was Mr. Trichet ... it seems that the euro zone economy is going to crack," said Joseph Trevisani, chief market analyst at Forex Solutions in Saddle River, N.J. "This has been the biggest two- or three-day move since the credit crisis began."

Friday in New York, the euro was at $1.5036 from $1.5322 late Thursday. The dollar was at Y110.16 from Y109.41, while the euro was at Y165.60 from Y167.67, according to EBS. The U.K. pound was at $1.9163 from $1.9429, and the dollar was at CHF1.0809 from CHF1.0624 late Thursday.

Despite the dollar's big gains, analysts warn thin trading conditions - the first couple of weeks of August are typically the least active of the year as investors take summer vacations - may be making it easier for dollar bulls to muscle the currency higher. As such, a correction could be on the horizon.

A drop in crude prices has also helped bring a measure of respect back to the dollar. As crude oil prices trade under $120 a barrel, investors who had long oil positions are removing those bets and transferring back into dollars.

If crude rebounds, analysts say the dollar may also retreat from its large gains this week.

But for now, the dollar continues to look strong. The Canadian dollar is at a 12-month low, the Australia dollar a five-month low, and the U.K. pound is at its lowest point in nearly two years, falling as low as $1.9147.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar surged above Y110.00 Friday, its highest level since early January. Stronger U.S. stock markets are giving an additional boost to the dollar as risk appetite improves and investors bail out of the low-yielding yen.

U.S. data out Friday also helped the greenback, as the Labor Department reported that second quarter productivity remained robust.

Expect M & A Flows into the Euro on Monday.

SHANGHAI (AFP) - At a time when the world's top athletes strive to set records at the Beijing Olympics, the Chinese currency has unexpectedly put on hold its steady move towards new highs.

Over the past nine trading days, the yuan has declined against the US dollar six times, throwing into doubt the conventional wisdom that its strengthening was the inevitable result of China's rise as an economic world power.

"The current noticeable weakening in the yuan has never happened before," said Liu Dongliang, a Shenzhen-based foreign exchange analyst with China Merchants Bank.

"Previously, when the dollar rebounded, the yuan would either move sideways or appreciate more slowly," he said.

As a result, the yuan has declined nearly 0.70 percent against the American currency from a closing peak of 6.8113 hit on July 16, ending at 6.8588 on Friday.

The markets appear to be betting that this is more than a short-term phenomenon.

Non-deliverable forwards, which reflect expectations for future movements in the exchange rate, show a decidedly less bullish mood on the Chinese currency.

While in March, non-deliverable forwards still implied a forecast of an 11.5 percent strengthening of the yuan against the dollar, it has now fallen to a modest 3.4 percent, according to Capital Economics, a London-based consultancy.

Although the US dollar has generally strengthened on a global scale, this may only be part of the explanation of why the yuan has weakened.

Subtle changes in the economic conditions facing China may be the real reason, according to economists.

"We attribute it to the shift in domestic policy -- the central bank has adjusted its policy for a slower speed in appreciation," said China Merchant Bank's Liu.

"The signal from central bank's statement for second-quarter monetary policy meeting is quite clear. The change in phrasing is obvious."

The central bank statement, issued last month, said it would "use various monetary policy tools to create good conditions for stable, relatively fast growth," while mentioning in passing that "upward pressure on prices is clear."

This was a change from the first-quarter report in which the central bank had placed its priorities squarely on fighting inflation, and it reflected changes in macroeconomic dynamics.

China's economy expanded by 10.4 percent in the first half and 10.1 percent in the second quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said earlier this month, down from growth of 11.9 percent recorded for all of 2007.

Growth in the consumer price index peaked at 8.7 percent in February -- nearly a 12-year high -- but softened to a more manageable 7.1 percent in June.

This removed some of the rationale for a continued strengthening of the yuan, which had been to ease inflation by lowering the prices of imported goods.

At the same time, a slowdown in the rise of the yuan might comfort the export sector, which is suffering from the weakened global economy.

In the first half of the year, the trade surplus declined nearly 12 percent from the same period in 2007.

"We do not believe the Chinese authorities will defy the law of gravity' to engineer a sustained renminbi depreciation despite persistent forex inflow," Morgan Stanley economist Qing Wang said in a research note.

"(But) it is likely that the central bank may fine-tune its intervention policy to effect a slower appreciation in the short run."

However, amid the decelaration in the appreciation of the yuan, some economists see this as a minor bump on the road of the Chinese currency to new heights.

"The economy is still in good shape, with consumption spending and export growth both much stronger than almost anyone expected a few months ago," Capital Economics analyst Mark Williams said in a research note.

"The arguments in favour of appreciation pre-date recent concerns over inflation. Simply put, China cannot rebalance its economy with a severely undervalued currency. We expect rapid... appreciation to continue."