markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
lynnzal
- 18 Mar 2005 08:32
- 997 of 6492
Seems that Des is happy to chug along sideways still and I think it bodes well for further bullish action. Sure there is a 'potential' head and shoulders reversal pattern on the chart to be wary of. But it only becomes in effect when the neckline breaks (based on it yeterday). For now the market continues to trade within a continuation triangle and as we approach the apex, we should expect to break (higher?).
Jon B
- 18 Mar 2005 10:15
- 999 of 6492
Marky, I too am with Barclays, so i don't kow what is going on there. As I said all done and dusted days ago.
Not much to say really, As usual I am baffled by the lack of price movement, volume, media attention etc.. The buys/sells and daily fluctuations in sp seem to have no bearing on one another.
It is going to break soon one way or the other.
But looking away from the daily minutia, DES will be contracting a rig and will resume drilling in the NFB after a seven year absence.
eddieshare
- 18 Mar 2005 19:03
- 1002 of 6492
Hi all
Glad to hear the axe has been put away !
Bit of a mad day again. I'm supprised DES hasn't closed lower. MMs at it again I think. Open 0.5075p, high 0.5075p, low 0.4850p, close 0.4979p. As you can see from the low price, the bears tried to take DES lower. The bulls took DES back up to the close. This is the support area. It seems as long as the sell offs are going on the bulls are only giving support (buying at the low price). Once the sell off has finnished I would think the bulls will be prepared to pay higher. The candle is a bearish belt hold. The candles have got smaller, which is generaly showing either a top or bottom of a trend. Let's hope its the bottom. Monday may bring the bulls in again.
Good Luck All
Eddie
eddieshare
- 18 Mar 2005 20:32
- 1003 of 6492
momentum
- 19 Mar 2005 09:25
- 1004 of 6492
Eddie, Triple bottom or head & shoulder break ? My money is on a TB and a break from the trading range.If sentiment was against DES and the falklands why is FOGL flying. We have a lot of catching up to do once the effects of the placing is out of the way.
eddieshare
- 19 Mar 2005 20:34
- 1005 of 6492
Hi momentum
I can see a descending triangle. So it's up or down next week, I reckon. I'm in on the up ! Triple bottom desending triangle it is then. MM's can't afford to let this go wrong. Don't forget what made the market turn. It wasn't bad news. It was the placing at 0.4500p. DES now has the capital for the drilling & Rockhopper to drill. All things being good DES will go up !
Any thoughts ?
Kind Regards
Eddie
markymar
- 20 Mar 2005 12:57
- 1006 of 6492
Never been a better time and the time is now and just some luck on the drill bit and there will be no looking back.
Decade of cheap petrol is over, warn experts
Ashley Seager
Saturday March 19, 2005
The Guardian
Motorists are facing further petrol price rises after crude oil hit a record high this week with experts and oil-producing countries warning that a decade-long period of cheap energy is now over.
With pump prices already at an average of 82.5p a litre for unleaded and 87.1p for diesel, the latest surge in crude, which has reached more than $57 a barrel, is likely to push petrol up over the coming days, experts say.
Ray Holloway, of the Petrol Retailers' Association, dismissed speculation that petrol would hit 1 a litre as "scaremongering" but said prices were likely to rise further in the second quarter of the year ahead of the summer driving season, when demand peaks.
"There is a shortage of refinery capacity in the United States and the Americans are bound to come shopping for petrol in Europe, which will push up prices here," he said.
Pump prices are not as high as they were last autumn when oil hit its previous highs, at least in part because the dollar, in which oil is priced, has fallen against the pound.
Petrol prices briefly hit 85p a litre last year but then fell back as crude dropped towards $40 a barrel after Opec, the producers' cartel, opened the taps and pumped more oil. Anything above 85p a litre would be a new experience for British drivers.
More recently, continued strong demand from China and the US, along with a cold snap across the northern hemisphere, have combined to push prices back up again.
Prices yesterday were down from Thursday's record levels but not by much. Brent blend traded in London at about $55.50, within sight of the record $56.15 hit the day before while US light crude futures were not far off their high of $57.60.
Opec pumps about a third of the world's crude and this week agreed to raise production by half a million barrels per day to 27.5m. It said it was prepared to go to 28m bpd if prices did not cool off.
Normally an announcement from Opec that it was raising output would send oil prices down, but not this time.
Sheikh Ahmad al-Sabah, president of the oil cartel, was forced within 48 hours of the announcement to admit that Opec may have to go for a further rise soon but he blamed speculators for pushing prices up, rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand.
Although they benefit from higher oil prices, many Opec members, in particular Saudi Arabia, have long been concerned that letting prices rise would cause recessions in the consumer nations, thereby choking off demand for its oil. In other words, high prices lead to low prices.
But there are signs that might be changing. Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said this week that his country, the world's largest exporter, was aiming for world oil prices in the $40-$50 a barrel area, double the previous Opec target range of $22-$28 a barrel.
Oil demand is presently at a 25-year high and supply is struggling to keep up. The Paris-based International Energy Agency predicts demand will rise to 86.1m bpd later this year from about 83m in the first half of the year. Opec's forecasts are similar but both assume Chinese demand growth will halve this year to 10% from 20% - an assumption the oil market thinks may be overly optimistic.
The Opec president said on Thursday the group planned to raise output to 30m bpd by the fourth quarter of the year in anticipation of the peak winter period. But the market fears that many Opec members, already pumping flat out, do not have any spare capacity.
Simon Wardell, of Global Insight, said: "Opec has been stating that it believes it will be able to meet demand in the fourth quarter and still maintain spare capacity, but few traders seem convinced. Further volatility is the only real possibility and price spikes above $60 seem possible.
"Any supply disruptions or refining problems will be pounced upon by the market and force prices up further. Only bullish news appears to be moving the market."
luckyswimmer
- 20 Mar 2005 14:11
- 1007 of 6492
Momentum and Eddie I agree that Desire has a lot of catching up to do.
If you look at Sterling's, another small oily, chart for the last 6 months it is in a very similar situation. A placing dragged the SP 25% down from 20p to 15p for a two month period followed by a strong, ongoing, recovery. Desire's placing timetable is a couple of months behind Sterlings so I think that the braking action of the placing is now over. FOGL have doubled from early February prices so when the news of a semi-sub (or drill ship) arrives I would be surprised if Desire stays under 1.
markymar
- 21 Mar 2005 07:31
- 1010 of 6492
lynnzal
- 21 Mar 2005 11:05
- 1011 of 6492
I agree with the topside breakout ideas although sideways action could continue for the next four weeks as we approach the apex of the triangle. As time goes by however, I can see more 'technical' reasons to buy than sell. Also, I think that by now everyone will have their share allocations sorted out (if not the cash refunds). This week I expect to see the remaining scalpers to take their quick profits and then the longer term players to use their cash refunds to take up the additional shares that they didn't get from the placement.
lynnzal
- 21 Mar 2005 11:10
- 1012 of 6492
In light of the paranoia that some DES holders have about FOGL. Could someone explain why DES shares should 'catch up' with the price of FOGL especially when market cap for both firms is aroung the 105m area with share price at 50p and 135p respectively? IMO oil specs should now take up both companies to keep the market cap at similar levels (perhaps stronger bias to DES in light of how advanced they are in their exploration activities).
mingbeaver
- 21 Mar 2005 11:29
- 1014 of 6492
Marky
Whats your take on no further partners (unless terms are superb) I for one am very disappointed with the 3 well campaign.
We all know that if we get a good strike theres no problem but if problems are encounted with drill 1 for example additional monies will need to be expended possibally jeapodising drill 3.
If des do not strike commercial oil in the 3 wells we are finished.
I would have prefered 6-8 wells and another partner albeit further dilution.
ming
Jon B
- 21 Mar 2005 15:03
- 1015 of 6492
Des have stated they are planning for a 3 well campaign, i would expect any rig tender they sign to have the option of a drilling extension. I would expect DES also identify and plan for more than 3 wells, as location changes and plays may be forced upon them.
The two non farm-in scenarios I see for expanding the number of wells are:
1) Initial drilling success leads to an extension of the exploration program.
1) Drilling is quick & problem free taking less days than planned, hence an additional well or two may be added to the program (even if the first 3 are dry holes)
berlingo
- 21 Mar 2005 21:15
- 1016 of 6492
Hi guys
Any charts for us tonight Eddie ? Have we reached the bottom yet ? For all the hype about oil exploration stocks and considering the positive recent news from DES this has failed to excite the market ! V.strange but i think when it happens this share will rocket instead of rise slowly as more people come on board. Also there are a lot of oil explores out there at present so a lot to go round. By the time news reaches most , DES could be out of sight , we hope !
Patience Gentlemen .
Regards
Berlingo