Thought a place for metals news might be useful:

METALS-Copper slips, demand uncertainty dominates mood
Wed Oct 7, 2009 3:01pm EDT
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* Copper stocks rise again; highest since May * Investors eye mining labor talks * Analysts expect further support from dollar weakness
(Adds NEW YORK to dateline, recasts, adds New York closing copper
prices and analyst comments) By Chris Kelly and Rebekah Curtis NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Copper ended down a shade
on Wednesday in thin and volatile trade during Chinese holidays,
with rising stocks fueling uncertainty over demand against a
fragile economic background. Copper for December delivery HGZ9 on the New York Mercantile
Exchange's COMEX division eased 0.50 cent to settle at $2.7795 a
lb, after dealing in a session range between $2.7510 and $2.8040. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper for three-month
delivery MCU3 fell $21 to close at $6,095 a tonne. Prices of the metal used in power and construction have
doubled this year, driven by improving economic data, investor
flows and Chinese stockpiling. But sentiment has turned fragile in recent months as buying by
China, the world's top copper consumer, has tailed off and demand
from other world economies hampered by slowdown has yet to pick up
the slack. "There's been no effective economic growth caused by the
stimulus in the West," said John Meyer, analyst at Fairfax
investment bank. "We haven't seen any major infrastructure projects," he added.
"The only positive stimulus we've really seen is in China and
nearby regions." Trade was thin and volatile due a run of holidays in China
where markets shut on Oct. 1 for the National Day and Autumn
Festival holidays and only reopen on Friday. Additionally, nervousness in front of third-quarter earnings
results from aluminum producer Alcoa (AA.N) added to the lighter
conditions. "There is some nervousness out there in front of that number
that is keeping people a little bit to the sidelines today," said
Sterling Smith, an analyst for Country Hedging Inc in St. Paul,
Minnesota. "If Alcoa were to beat expectations, or up their guidance, or
preferably both, I think that will be very bullish for copper, and
for the industrial metals in general. I think you've got a lot of
hands being kind of quiet today ahead of it." A recent bout of more encouraging economic data has helped
underpin prices, including data showing German manufacturing
orders rose slightly more than expected in August on a boost from
foreign demand. [ID:nL7400974] STOCKS RISING Underlining demand concerns, LME copper stocks, which have
climbed since mid-July, rose 725 tonnes to 347,150 tonnes -- their
highest since May 2009. But recent dollar weakness is expected to support industrial
metals as a lower U.S. currency makes dollar-priced commodities
cheaper for holders of other currencies. And despite the dollar broadly firming on Wednesday, some
analysts see the currency falling further. [USD/] "If the dollar remains under pressure then the base metals
complex will continue to be supported and short players will
reduce risk," RBC Capital Markets said in a note. In the background, labor talks are being watched closely.
Chilean workers at Spence copper mine were in contract
negotiations with owner BHP Billiton (BLT.L)(BHP.AX).
[ID:nN06449937] "There are a number of potential supply issues hanging over
the market," said Gayle Berry, an analyst at Barclays Capital.
"That's offering a little bit of support." Aluminum MAL3 ended at $1,845 from $1,822. Zinc MZN3
closed at $1,935 a tonne from $1,921 and battery material lead
MPB3 at $2,155 from $2,150. Steel-making ingredient nickel MNI3 closed at $18,600 from
$18,130 and tin MSN3 at $14,700 from $14,675. Latest LME data showed that a dominant position still holds
more than 90 percent of tin stock warrants and cash contracts. The premium for cash material over the three-month future has
fallen to $430 a tonne from $695 a tonne last week on talk that
the position could be scaled back. [ID:nLN605546]
Metal Prices at 1842 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2008 Ytd Pct move
COMEX Cu 276.75 -0.80 -0.29 139.50 98.39
LME Alum 1835.00 13.00 +0.71 1535.00 19.54
LME Cu 6090.00 -26.00 -0.43 3060.00 99.02
LME Lead 2146.00 -4.00 -0.19 999.00 114.81
LME Nickel 18600.00 470.00 +2.59 11700.00 58.97
LME Tin 14680.00 85.00 +0.58 10700.00 37.20
LME Zinc 1940.00 19.00 +0.99 1208.00 60.60
SHFE Alu 14835.00 130.00 +0.88 11540.00 28.55
SHFE Cu* 48190.00 1720.00 +3.70 23840.00 102.14
SHFE Zin 15330.00 240.00 +1.59 10120.00 51.48
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for
SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Additional reporting by Michael Taylor and Pratima Desai in
London; Editing by Keiron Henderson and Christian Wiessner)

Commodity charts link

Gold futures settled lower on Wednesday but not before rallying to a record $1,070 earlier in the session. Gold for December delivery fell $2 to settle at $1,064.00 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange as traders took profit on recent gains. Analysts said there is also concern that golds advance has been overdone. Gold has risen almost 5% this month.

Among other metals December silver rose 5.5 cents to $17.895 an ounce and December copper rose 5 cents to $2.8445 a pound.

Some Predict Nickel to Fall Below $10,000 Per Ton in 2010
October 19th, 2009 No Comments
Comments made by Carey Smith, a research analyst at Alto Capital speaking at the Australian Nickel Conference were reported in Mineweb and made chilling reading for high cost nickel producers. Smith said the easing of monumental stimulus programs and the ongoing depressed demand in the developed countries were going to result in a further deterioration in nickel demand next year. From a current price of over $18,000 per metric ton, Smith said they expected prices to fall to a range between $8,500 and $17,000 a ton over the next few years as prices cannot be justified by current supply and demand fundamentals. Specifically Alto Capital are calling out $11,000 in 2011 rising to $14,000 by 2014.

On the supply side Smith said global stocks equivalent to 35 days are the highest since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 and there are additional but unknown quantities in Russia and China. Even with global stimulus packages estimated at $7 trillion, demand has failed to significantly pick up outside of China. And when these come to an end, demand is sure to slide further.

As we covered earlier this month, Chinas Nickel Pig iron producers have come back into the market with a vengeance this year impacting Chinas demand for refined metal and exacerbating the fall in demand. Some of the banks are predicting a period of re-stocking by distributors and end-users that have run down their stocks over the last 12 months but unless underlying end-user demand picks up this will be largely completed by the end of this year. Our straw poll of distributors suggests there is still a great deal of caution and many are continuing to live hand to mouth. Although we wouldnt share Alto Capitals bearish view, we do agree the large visible and invisible stocks are going to continue to weigh on prices and a return above $20,000 per ton is unlikely before 2011.

Stuart Burns

Gold appears to be taking a dive
Gold spot chart

Commodities: Gold up for sixth day in a row23-11-2009 06:42
Back to News headlines


Though the US dollar showed signs of recovery on Friday, investors banked on the trend being short lived and piled into gold, pushing the price of the yellow stuff up for the sixth session in a row.

The December futures contract rose $4.90 to hit $1,146.80 an ounce on Friday afternoon on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, having shown weakness in the morning session.

Fridays closing value was below the all-time high price of $1,153.40 an ounce hit on Wednesday.

Silver, by contrast, was out of favour with the December futures contract sliding 1.5 cents to $18.44 an ounce, but the price of copper hardened, with the March contract climbing 2.8 cents to $3.134 a pound in New York trading.

The price of crude oil dipped for the second day in a row as the greenback clawed back some recent losses against the euro. The price of oil usually moves contra to the direction of the US currency.

Crude oil for December fell 74 cents to $76.72 on its last day of trading. The more actively traded January contract eased $0.58 to $77.47 a barrel.

With the removal of the dollar as a reason for the price of oil to rise investors looked to the demand situation to see which way the price might move, and the consensus seems to be that demand is recovering, but only slowly.

On Wednesday, the US Energy Deparment said daily fuel demand in the US in the preceding four weeks had been 4.1% down on levels seen in the corresponding period of 2008.

Gasoline futures moved higher, however, after US refiner Valero Energy said it is shutting down its refinery in Delaware City, tipping 550 workers on to the dole.

The closure was in response to the tribulations suffered by the US motor manufacturing industry. The refinery has been losing $1m a day this year.

gold chart

Gold racked up another record high on Monday, topping $1,170 an ounce, on a weaker dollar and as Iran's war games caused a flight to the relative safety of the yellow metal.

The December contract closed $17.90 higher in New York at $1,164.70 an ounce, but had been as high as $1,174 earlier. It's only fallen once this month.

A slump in the value of the US currency increase gold's attractiveness as it makes the metal cheaper to buy. The two assets tend to have an inverse relationship, with gold going the opposite way to the dollar.

Meanwhile, Iran's decision to start a five-day war game covering thousands of square miles increased jitters.

Tehran says it wants to show it could repel an attack on its nuclear facilities by either Israel or the US. It also said it would launch a missile strike against Tel Aviv if It is attacked.

Elsewhere, silver, platinum, copper and palladium all rose sharply.

On the oil market, crude was up for the first session in three on Iran's posturing, with the January contract, the new front-month, up 11 cents to $77.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The black stuff also benefited from the weak dollar, which analysts think will support the oil price going forward

Many metals, including silver, copper and platinum will thrive as the dollar falls. (See "U.S. Dollar Has A Long Way To Fall"). Tom Lydon, head of Global Trends Investments, says a weaker dollar will make commodities prices cheaper for foreign buyers using stronger currencies and that demand will increase from companies overseas.

BuzzBase metals such as copper and silver make for good investments because they're used for infrastructure projects, which are receiving federal stimulus money, notes Marc Lowlicht, head of the wealth management division of Further Lane Asset Management. "Add the fact that both China and India are building out their infrastructure as well and you have the perfect storm.
Platinum and palladium, two industrial and precious metals, are "benefiting from hedging as well as hopes that industrial activity will take off in 2010," Lydon says. He adds that a lot of platinum is used in catalytic converters, which reduce car emissions. When climate change legislation is put in place and car sales subsequently pick up, demand for platinum will increase, Lydon says.

Commodities: Fed minutes trim gold's gains25-11-2009 02:39

Gold rose for the eighth session in a row though it closed off its best levels, after the release of the minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the panel that sets the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

The minutes indicated that policy makers expect the US economy to grow, albeit at a slow rate, while unemployment is forecast to remain high. Inflation is expected to be lower than previously anticipated, suggesting that the Fed will not be raising interest rates any time soon.

Demand for the yellow stuff was boosted by news that holdings in SPDR Gold, the largest gold exchange traded fund (ETF), have risen to 1,121.46 metric tons from 1,117.49 on Friday. The increase indicates sustained investment demand for gold lies ahead.

The December gold futures contract rose $1.10 to $1,165.80, having hit $1,174 at one stage.

The oil price fell back on concerns over a slow-down in economic growth in China and the expectation of a rise in inventories to be announced on Wednesday by the US Energy Information Adninistration.

The January futures contract declined $1.54 to close at $76.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange before declining further in after-hours electronic trading on the release of stockpiles data from the American Petroleum Institute (API).

The API said that US crude stocks increased by 3.4m barrels in the week to 20 November, versus expectations of an increase of 1.4m barrels.

Gold chart

Commodities: Gold's winning streak ends27-11-2009 06:22

Gold's nine-day rally, the longest since 1982, came to an end Thursday, but not before the yellow metal had hit another record high.

The December contract fell $3.30 to $1,183.70 an ounce in electronic trade, only the second day this month it has fallen. But it had touched a new best of $1,195 earlier on.

A rare strong session for the dollar gave gold a push in the right direction, but profit takers emerged later in what was thin trade as Americans were absent for Thanksgiving.

There had been large gains Wednesday following reports that India was back in the market for more of the International Monetary Fund's gold reserves. It paid $6.7bn for 200 metric tons of the fund's gold at the start of the month.

The IMF also confirmed Thursday that Sri Lanka had bought 10 tons of its gold for around $375m.

On the oil markets, crude skidded lower as traders decided inventories at their highest in four weeks would probably satisfy demand for fuel in the US this winter.

Crude oil for January delivery fell $1.73 to $76.23 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as the pits were closed for the US holiday.

Supplies of crude were almost 338 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, were 26% above the five-year average, the Energy Department said midweek.

Gold just gone through 1200$ mark

Gold hits new record high02-12-2009 07:13

Gold rose back above $1,200 per ounce again overnight in Asia as investors sought refuge from a weak dollar and Dubai's woes.

Spot gold traded at nearly $1,208 per ounce in Tokyo after closing at $1,196 in New York last night. Further out, three month futures were as high as $1,211 as traders forecast continued demand for the metal from investors spooked by the problems in Dubai and unease about the sluggish US economy and dollar.

Concerns over the dollar have been heightened by mixed economic data recently at a time when the US economy had been expected to be pulling out of recession. One of the key US economic indicators, non-farm payrolls figures are due on Friday.

Miners reducing their hedging activity have also contributed to the higher gold price with Barrick Gold recently confirming it has eliminated all of its hedge book.

Barrick, which had planned to end all gold hedges by next September, said: "Our positive view on the gold price led us to accelerate the elimination of these contracts ahead of the schedule we had established."

"With their elimination we no longer have any gold price related mark-to-market exposure and will now fully benefit from increases in the gold price," it said.

Reports that India's central bank is also looking to buy more bullion after snapping up 200 tonnes in November have also helped buoy the price recently.

Retail investors have also been busy, with world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, reporting holdings rose 0.61 tonnes to 1,130 tonnes and are closing in on June's record of 1,134 tonnes.

Current Gold price 1220$ and rising..:)

Commodities: Gold bandwagon rolls on03-12-2009 05:47

Gold hit another record high, breaking back above the $1,200 an ounce barrier, as pundits warned investors not to stand in the way of the gold bandwagon.

The yellow stuffs haven status as an investment has been enhanced by reports of central banks stocking up on the precious metal, plus the decision by miner Barrick Gold to close out all of its hedging positions on gold way ahead of schedule.

Barrick, which had planned to end all gold hedges by next September, said: Our positive view on the gold price led us to accelerate the elimination of these contracts ahead of the schedule we had established.

Gold for January delivery rose $12.90 to $1,212 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, having risen as high as $1,217.30 at one point. The price of gold moved higher still in electronic trading after the Comex close, hitting a new high of $1,218.40.

Crude oil futures turned lower Wednesday after US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels in the week to 27 November, according to figures released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Gasoline inventories rose by 4m barrels but distillate stockpiles declined by 1.2m barrels.

The EIA data tallied with trends from the American Petroleum Institutes oil inventory data on Tuesday, which showed crude oil stockpiles rose 2.89m barrels in the week to 27 November.

The price of the January contract fell $1.77 to $76.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Demand for oil was also undermined by a recovery in the US dollar against the euro. The price of oil usually moves counter to the value of the dollar.

Gold price diving as I type 1182$

US open: Shares sharply higher04-12-2009 15:06

US shares rose sharply thanks to the optimism sparked by the fact that just 11,000 US jobs were lost last month.

The market had been expecting a 100,000 reduction in Americans on non-farm payrolls in November, so the more modest decline was met with loud applause.

There was also surprise at a drop in the unemployment rate to 10% from 10.2%.

The Dow was 141 points higher in early trading at 10,517. Du Pont was the only faller on the Dow. The company has delayed the North American launch of its new corn and soybean seeds, which have a special herbicide.

The S&P and Nasdaq rose even more sharply. The S&P was 18 points higher at 1,118 and Nasdaq rose 40 points to 2,213.

Inventories at US factories increased for the first time in more than one year in October. Factory stocks rose 0.4%, while factory orders increased 0.6% - which was better than expected. The September figure for the rise in orders was revised upwards from 0.9% to 1.6%.

It wasn't all good news on the economic front. The Economic Cycle Research Institute's US Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), which anticipates cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 95.7 from a 93 in October. The October figure was revised upwards from 91.7. This is the eighth month in a row that the index has risen.

Discount retailer Big Lots is the biggest riser on the S&P. It more than doubled profits to 37 cents a share from 15 cents in 2008 and lifted sales by 2% to $1.04bn, both better than forecast.

General Motors chairman and acting chief executive Ed Whitacre has rejigged the car maker's management following the departure of chief executive Fritz Henderson. Bob Lutz will advise on design and development, Mark Reuss will be the North American boss and Nick Reilly takes over at GM Europe. Tim Lee will look after international operations.

Readers Digest plans to sell its CompassLearning educational technology business, which is currently the subject of a bankruptcy action. Readers Digest has made an initial agreement with a potential bidder but there is time for it to be outbid

">http://https://www.iGolder.com/gold-charts/">

Not metals news, but for the uninitiated like me a good article about Fridays sudden drop then revival. Bit long but worth a read.

So much for the Dow's 2009 high. Good news on jobs is bad news for stocks
Dan Burrows
Dec 4th 2009 at 6:45PMText SizeAAAFiled under: Economy, Investing
More

It was silly season on Wall Street Friday. November's unemployment figure -- still a dismal 10% and subject to revision -- came in stunningly better than expected and the markets immediately soared to fresh 2009 highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) alone shot up as much as 150 points in early trading.

And then, at about 11 a.m. Eastern, everybody decided to sell. "I don't know what happened," says David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's. "Some of it was probably just profit taking, but anybody who believes in rational markets hasn't looked at them very long."

On a Teeter-Totter

The Dow spiked, plunged and eventually finished with a wee gain. Welcome to the wacky world of equities, where good news is bad news and bad news is good news. It seems traders -- as fidgety as chipmunks but with shorter attention spans -- suddenly and collectively realized that an improving jobs picture could make their cheap-dollar-fueled bubbles blow up much sooner than expected.

Here's how: Stocks, gold and oil have all ballooned on the so-called reflation trade. That's where central banks and governments around the globe keep interests rates low (in the U.S.'s case, essentially at zero), while simultaneously flooding the world economy with stimulus spending. All that cheap liquidity has to flow somewhere, and it's been pouring into pretty much any asset class you can think of.

Magnifying this effect is that the weak dollar has become the vehicle of choice for the international carry trade. That's where traders borrow cheap currency (until recently, the yen for 16 years) to purchase higher-yielding assets such as stocks, bonds, oil, gold and commodities in general. Profit is made by pocketing the difference. As the dollar rises, borrowers of greenbacks find themselves in a short squeeze, which forces them to sell those higher-yielding assets in order to buy outright the dollars they've borrowed.

Dollar's Surprise Move

So if the economy is stabilizing faster than forecast -- as today's jobs report at first seemed to suggest -- the chipmunks figured the Fed will have to raise rates sooner than they expected. Why is that bad? Stocks and bonds drop on rate hikes even in the best of times. But in this case, it would hurt even more because a rising dollar will make all the assets it has reflated -- equities, debt, gold, oil, etc. -- fall even harder.

Which is exactly what the chipmunks did to these asset classes Friday. The dollar jumped and everything predicated on it being weak fell. Who saw that coming? Apparently no one. As Dennis Gartman, author of the well-regarded investment newsletter bearing his name, said Friday, punters who played the jobs report got what's coming to them.

"Anyone, anywhere who chooses to make material 'bets' in the world of trading/investing predicated upon the outcome of [the unemployment] report deserves the sound thrashing that he or she shall likely receive," Gartman told clients, noting that these reports are "notorious for revisions of 30% to 60%...in either direction!"

If there is some weirdly good news about Friday's market action, it's that at least the dollar/securities correlation remained intact, unlike the previous spooky session. On Thursday, small cap stocks, financials and oil fell even as the dollar sunk, too, notes Keith McCullough, CEO of ResearchEdge, a New Haven, Conn., strategy and research firm.

Rates Staying Put

"Dollar down equals stocks and commodities down?" McCullough wrote Friday. "Yes, this is new," the former hedge fund manager says. "It's called unwinding the reflation trade," says McCullough -- a situation that does not bode well for our bubbles.

Also adding to Friday's market mishegoss was that even though the employment report was a pleasant surprise when benchmarked against economists' and market expectations, "the overall labor market backdrop remains extremely fragile," wrote David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist and Canada's Gluskin Sheff. In other words, at least some of the chipmunks took the time to actually digest the data -- and they didn't like what they ate.

But getting back to the idea that the Fed might hike rates anytime soon? Well, that's just goofy. "The Fed will need to see sustainable unemployment trends before they'll raise rates," says S&P's Wyss. "And then if the fragile recovery started to fall apart, they would just drop them again."

The bottom line for retail investors is that one day in the market (or in Friday's case, 90 minutes) does not make a trend. Every day is but a single data point -- and some points are noisier than others.

INO.com Headlines
DJ PRECIOUS METALS: Comex Gold Slides As Traders Exit Positions
2 hours, 5 minutes ago

By Allen Sykora

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Gold futures are sharply lower early Monday in a continuation of the activity from Friday when traders were liquidating, or selling, to exit positions in which they previously bought, due to an uptick in the U.S. dollar after U.S. employment data that were not as weak as feared.

Around 8:56 a.m. EST (1356 GMT), February gold was down $23.90 to $1,145.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. March silver was down 39 cents to $18.13.

"Liquidation is dominating the market right now," said Patrick Lafferty, commodity trading advisor with MF Global. "It's been such a long, strong uptrend. The dollar is not up that much. But with the dollar higher, euro currency slightly lower and crude oil down, it's feeding the liquidation frenzy in gold."

The December dollar index was 0.025 point higher at 75.995.

As recently as Thursday, February gold hit a peak of $1,227.50 an ounce that was a record high for a Comex most-active contract. The market had risen steadily over the last two months due to weakness in the dollar and concerns about longer-term inflation.

However, the dollar recaptured some of its recent weakness after a Friday report showed that November non-farm payrolls fell only 11,000 when economists were looking for a bigger decline of around 125,000.

Some of the selling in gold are traders booking profits on long positions, said Stephen Platt, an analyst with Archer Financial Services.

"The market had certainly met some intermediate-term targets up around $1,180 and exceeded that for a brief period," he said. "There is a general fear that if the economy starts showing signs of stronger recovery following the favorable jobs report, you're going to have interest rates move higher, which could at least hinder some of the buying interest we've seen in gold recently from speculative interests."

Some of the decline is due to sell stops, which are pre-placed orders triggered when certain chart points are hit. That occurred as prices fell below the $1,150 area overnight, Platt said.

A healthy 50% correction in gold's most recent upleg in late autumn and early winter would take the market back to around $1,127, Lafferty said.

Meanwhile, January platinum was down $15.70 to $1,434 an ounce, while March palladium was down $12.20 to $367.10.

-By Allen Sykora, Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765; allen.sykora@dowjones.com

Mining giant Xstrata is to take charges of nearly $2.5bn this year after restructuring its copper, zinc and nickel operations in Canada and Australia. In Canada, it will take a $375m charge for the permanent closure of its copper and zinc metallurgical plants at the Kidd Metallurgical site in Timmins next May, which is part of a plan to restructure its Canadian metallurgical operations.