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Traders Thread - Thursday 4th September (RSA)     

Crocodile - 03 Sep 2003 23:33

draw?period=1D&action=draw&startDate=10% draw?period=1D&action=draw&startDate=10%

Gold

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fpDJIA.gqplus?511 marketwatch-ss.img?symb=SP500 fpNASDAQ.gqplus?183

marketwatch-ss.img?symb=DAX

S&P &Futures (Click for latest)

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Pre Market Futures (7:30)
FTSE -7
TechMark -10
DAX -1

Hang Seng +69

Chart

Nikkei -68

Chart

DOW -21
S&P 2.4
Nasdaq -0.5

 

News Headlines:   US stocks managed to close with fresh multi-month highs despite last-minute profit taking thanks to buying in technology and optimism about the economy.

Royal & Sun Alliance Insurance says it will raise 960 million pounds in a deeply discounted rights issue to help shore up its balance sheet. RSA.L is offering one new share at 70 pence per share for every existing share held. The issue is fully underwritten, it added. The company also said first-half operating profit rose to 351 million pounds from 301 million a year earlier, roughly in line with market expectations. But it warned that a review of its general insurance operations may lead it to increase provisions by up to 800 million pounds in the third quarter.

Northern Foods said that first-half profits would fall significantly because of tough trading in its convenience foods business and that its chief executive was leaving the firm.The group, which makes own-label ready meals, quiches and desserts for retailers such as Marks & Spencer MKS.L , said Chairman Peter Blackburn would become executive chairman until a replacement had been found for chief executive Jo Stewart.

Arriva British bus and train operator posted an 18 percent rise in first-half underlying pre-tax profit to 51.1 from 43.4 million last year and said it would continue to focus on targeted acquisitions and share buybacks.

Diageo the world's biggest wines and spirits group, reported a four percent fall in underlying operating profits to 2.029 billion pounds but said it saw signs of trading improving in North America, Britain and Spain.

International Power says first-half profits fell sharply from a year ago, near the bottom of market expectations, as electricity prices fell in its main markets. The company, which is front runner in a bid battle for control of Britain's largest power station Drax, said earnings per share in the half fell to 5.1 pence from 9.9 a year ago before exceptional items with analysts forecast between 4.9 and 6.0 pence.

Calendar

All GMT

ukf.gifUnited Kingdom (F)inals (I)nterim usf.gifUnited States (Click Flag) euro.gifEurope & World

Thursday

Diageo (F) PBT 2120m exp. International Power (I) PBT 91.6m exp. Royal & Sun Alliance (I) PBT 356m exp. Amlin (I), Arriva (I), Ask Central (I), Axis-Shield (I), Davis Service Group (I),

Easynet Group (I), Eidos (F), Intercare Group (I), Intertek Group (I),

Mowlem (I), Rathbone Brothers (I), Tullow Oil (I), Wilson Connolly (I)

00.01 Aug BRC Shop Price Index 12.00 BOE Rate Announcement

13.30 Q2 Final Non-Farm Productivity 6.3% exp. 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 30/08) 395K exp. 15.00 Aug Non-Manufacturing ISM 62.0 exp. 15.00 July Preliminary Factory Orders 0.8% exp.

Cap Gemini (I), Pinault-Printemp (I), Suez (I)

08.55 Aug German Unemployment 10k exp. 11.00 July German Preliminary BBK

          Factory Orders m/m 0.4% exp.

12.45 ECB Rate Announcement

Good Trading!   David@FTSEDOW.com    www.FTSEDOW.com

Bloomberg TV          

Pivot Calculator

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ThePlayboy - 04 Sep 2003 07:09 - 2 of 26

Morning!

THU FTSE PP

R2 4323.2
R1 4292.6
PP 4248.5
S1 4217.9
S2 4173.8

Ftse close above R3, only lost 0.5 in the auction! Close was also above weekly R2.


Updated 9/3 for Thursday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 9/4
UP Above 9,600
DN Below 9,530

Consolidating
Dow pushes higher, consolidates to the Close.

From prior commentary, "...We want to see a consolidation form, or other signs of strength above 9,425...Watch for further upside movement in the medium term..."
The Dow continued higher this morning and was able to hold on to recent gains by consolidating at the highs of the 15 Min Chart. The index continues to display strength within the current upmove and will likely continue higher within the overall uptrend, seen in the Daily Chart.

The fact that the index has formed a consolidation at the highs is indicative of further strength tomorrow. An upside break through the top of the pattern at 9,600 will tend to confirm such a move.

However, the consolidation has a certain curvature that resembles a possible saucer top, which can be best seen in the 5 Minute Chart (not shown). Saucer tops indicate weakness and a likely push lower. Watch 9,540 for a downside break to indicate weakness.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear short term support level at 9,540, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. A break below 9,540 will spark a likely downtrend tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still Long the Dow from 9,481 and will move our stops up to 9,530 for tomorrow's market. We will stay Long above 9,600, and look to Short below 9,530, with 10 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The S&P gained on the session today and consolidated at the highs of the current upmove. The NASDAQ, did likewise. Watch the ranges for follow-through to the upside. *

Summary

The Dow pushed higher this morning and proceeded to consolidate at the highs of the current four-day upmove, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The consolidation hints at a continuation, but watch both boundaries for a break.

Crocodile - 04 Sep 2003 07:37 - 3 of 26

Morning all ..
Thanks TP

Druid2 - 04 Sep 2003 07:57 - 4 of 26

Morning all and tks Croc & TP.

Still holding PRU shorts - come on down.

ThePlayboy - 04 Sep 2003 08:06 - 5 of 26

Druid2-hopefully ftse will have a break today so I ccan off load an Avz short!

Bullshare - 04 Sep 2003 08:32 - 6 of 26

looking for something exciting in the markets to trade but nothing yet

ThePlayboy - 04 Sep 2003 08:36 - 7 of 26

Bulshare-short Avz then:)

little woman - 04 Sep 2003 09:46 - 8 of 26

Morning all, the last couple of days seem to be catching up with me!

Managed to sell TWT just before close clearing a nice 5% during the day. Don't think I'll buy it again in a hurry! If you can get a good price this is one to short.

ETL are still going up. They are on a limit sell for 60p, may make it yet!

Druid2, although PRU has droped a bit, I can see it carrying on down a bit more, but it's going to be painfully slow!


little woman - 04 Sep 2003 09:57 - 9 of 26

AZN on a target sell of 2600 - was a bit worried it wasn't going to making it, but now heading in the right direction again!

little woman - 04 Sep 2003 10:03 - 10 of 26

TWT about to get intresting again!

little woman - 04 Sep 2003 10:08 - 11 of 26

Or a least it would if the offer price would drop to lower the spread! I wonder if a limit purchase could catch a good price?

jules99 - 04 Sep 2003 10:22 - 12 of 26

morning LittleWoman- Just Sold out half of my ait shares-nice juicy profit...bought at 10/13p besides need the dough...

Up on Serco so far so good...which brokers aprt from TD wrthse allow margin trading..? 1 x 2...?

jules99 - 04 Sep 2003 10:31 - 13 of 26

Little woman -Any thoughts of going long on RSA at 1.31? never traded RSA myself but looks temting do u think it could rise 10% from here again or not for a while?

little woman - 04 Sep 2003 10:38 - 14 of 26

Hi Jules

Personally I don't like insurance companies! But the order book for RSA is looking good for a rise in the short term.

I just got some TWT at a better price than yesterday - I hope the people who deal sets aren't reading this BB! I can't see it going as high as yesterday, but enough for me to make a profit again!

jules99 - 04 Sep 2003 10:48 - 15 of 26

Thanks Little woman-

BTW-I sent u 2 messages read above last one...ref to margin trading?

ta...

Jules

little woman - 04 Sep 2003 11:45 - 16 of 26

Sorry in and out today, reading too fast, and not taking in everything!

I'm not the best person to ask about margin trading & brokers as it's something I don't really do much of yet. Can anyone else make any suggestions?

little woman - 04 Sep 2003 12:37 - 17 of 26

Jules - just saw the news on RSA! Rights issue - so price dropped like a stone! Did you buy?

jules99 - 04 Sep 2003 14:23 - 18 of 26

Little woman No playing safe on RSS in case it does a UNILEVER...!

i.e It may go down further, slowly for next few days...and if DOW goes into profit take zone...RSA will definately follow suit...just my thoughts could be wronge...?

Ta..
Jules99.

Druid2 - 04 Sep 2003 14:58 - 19 of 26

My PRU shorts looking a bit better today and my WOS shorts looking MUCH better BUT my NXT shorts letting me down. Thought that clothes sales during this warm. dry summer would have been down !!

jules99 - 04 Sep 2003 15:01 - 20 of 26

buying rsa at 1.31 would have made a cool 5/6%..

splat - 04 Sep 2003 15:20 - 21 of 26

NXT got a broker upgrade today Druid2
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