7:30am Futures

United Kingdom Calendar   13th October

United States  (GMT)

Europe & World (GMT)

 European Motor Holdings (I)

Carphone Warehouse H1 Trading Statement

00.01 Office of Deputy Prime Minister Housing Index 09.30 Sep PPI Input m/m 0.8% exp. Output m/m 0.2% exp.

 European Motor Holdings (I)

Carphone Warehouse H1 Trading Statement

00.01Office of Deputy Prime Minister Housing Index 09.30 Sep PPI Input m/m 0.8% exp. 09.30 Sep PPI Output m/m 0.2% exp.

Debenhams (F) PBT 169m exp. Fibernet Group (F) PTL 11m exp. St Ives Group (F) PBT 34.8m exp. Bellway (F), MJ Gleeson (F)

GUS H1 Trading Statement

Burberry H1 Trading Statement

09.30 Sep RPIX y/y 2.8% exp.

Bank of America (Q3), Dow Jones (Q3),

Motorola (Q3), Delta(Q3),

Intel(Q3), Johnson & Johnson (Q3)

Philips (Q3), SKF (Q3), Synthes Stratec (Q3)

10.00 Oct German ZEW Sentiment 63.0 exp.

Body Shop International (I) PBT 27m exp. Reckitt Benkiser (Q3) Trading Statement

09.30 Sep Unemployment 5k exp. 09.30Aug Average Earnings 3m y/y 3.5% exp.

20.00 BOE Governor King Speaks in Leicester

Apple Computer (Q3), Coca Cola (Q3), Fannie Mae (Q3) General Dynamics (Q3), General Motors (Q3), Unisys (Q3), Genzyme (Q3), IBM (Q3), JP Morgan (Q3) Monsanto (Q3)

13.30 Oct Advance Retail Sales 0.2% exp. 15.30 Aug Leading Indicator 19.00 Fed Beige Book

Hennes & Mauritz (TS), Iberia (TS), ASML(Q3), Micronas (Q3), Thompson Multimedia (Q3)

Ex Dividend: Aero Inventory (2.3), BAE Systems (3.7), Camellia (20), Charles Taylor (3.27), Derwent Valley (3.3), Friends Provident, (2.5), Highbury House 0.26), Isotron (5.5), Johnston Press (2), LA Fitness (1), Linton Park (3), Morse (2.15), Newcastle United (2.04), Old Mutual (1.7), Regent Inns (3.36), Rolls Royce (3.18), S & U (8), Smiths Group (17.25), Spectris (4.05), Spirax-Sarco Engineering (6), TT Electronics (3.69), Tullow Oil (1), Unite Group 0.83), WPP Group (2.08)

Mouchel Parkman (F), N Brown Group (I), WH Smith (F)

Prudential Q3 Group Sales

11.00 BCC Quarterly Economic Survey

eBay (Q3), Honeywell (Q3), MBNA (Q3), Office Depot (Q3), Sears Roebuck (Q3), Sun Micro (Q3), Ford (Q3), Hershey Foods (Q3), Mattel (Q3),

13.30 Sep CPI m/m 0.2% exp. 13.30 Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 11/110) 385k exp. 13.30 Aug Business Inventories 0.1% 14.45 Sep Industrial Production 0.4% exp. 14.15 Sep Capacity Utilization 74.8% exp. 17.00 Oct Philly Fed 16.0 exp. 18.00 Oct NAHB Housing Market Index 67.0 exp.

Danone (Q3), Gucci (Q2), Nokia (Q3), Roche (Q3), SAP (Q3), Thales (Q3), Groupe Danone (H1), Printemps (Q3),SAP (Q3)

11.00 Sep CPI y/y

Harvey Nash (I)

Caterpillar (Q3), Nortel (Q3), Sybase (Q3)

13.30 Sep Housing Starts 1830k exp. 14.50 Oct Preliminary Michigan Sentiment 88.0 exp.

Akzo Nobel (Q3),

11.00 Aug Industrial Production m/m 11.00 Aug Trade Balance

Sage Group year trading statement

Diageo AGM

08.30 Sept PSNCR 08.30 BBA BSA CML mortgage lending

23.30 England, Wales RICS Sept house prices

ParthusCeva (I), ARM Holdings (Q3), Allied Domecq (F) Brambles Industries AGM

1000 CBI quarterly industrial trends survey

Premier Direct Group (F),Egg Q3 GlaxoSmithKline Q3

Linx Printing AGMs,  Diageo Shareholder Meeting

08.30 NTC Sept leading indicators 08.30 BoE MPC minutes of Oct 8/9 meeting

Ex Dividend: Aggreko (2.2), Bovis Homes Group (5.3), Go-Ahead Group (18), Hays (5.38), SIG (4.1), Yule Catto & Company (5.3)  

Astrazeneca Oct 23 (Q3)

Amvescap Q3, Shell Transport Q3

Aviva Q3 new business figures

WPP Group (Q3)

WH Smith(F)

BHP Billiton PLC AGM

Retailers will again dominate next week when Debenhams, Body Shop, WH Smith and GUS report.

Monday UK producer prices and output figures for September are due TuesdayDebenhams unveils its last full year results before it is taken over. Analysts expect pre-tax profits of around 169m for the year, up from 154m in 2002. Shareholders will be voting on the 455p takeover bid by Baroness Retail at an emergency meeting next month, with any counter offer likely to emerge after the results. GUS is expected to report another strong period of trading as Argos continues to outperform its rivals, although sales may have slowed due to the summer heatwave. First half trading update will show like-for-like sales growth of 5% in the second quarter for Argos. Hot temperatures are also likely to have slowed sales at the group's Homebase DIY chain while the Experian credit checking unit should deliver sales growth globally, particularly in the US.

St Ives release annual figures.

Bellway housebuilder, which specialises in developing dwellings on reclaimed land, said previously that demand for its homes had been robust and results for the twelve months should be at record levels. Profit of 158m is forecast for this year, up from 125m last time and turnover, up some 20% to 934m.

UK September inflation data are due/

WednesdayBody Shop releases 6 month results following three profits warnings in 18 months.The market will be looking for signs of recovery and an increase in profits following an efficiency drive by its CEO. Analysts expect profits this year to be around 27m. Reckitt Benckiser makers of household products including Harpic and Calgon are expected to make further sales increases and improvement in gross margin. due to new products and a pick-up in the U.S operations following the Iraq war which fell in the second quarter. ThursdayPrudential releases 3rd quarter new business figures which are not expected to show any surprises. The operating outlook for the Pru continues to be tough. In particular, analysts are concerned about adverse currency movements and lower margins. The last quarters operating profits were down 27% to 397m and total insurance and investment sales stuck at 15.52bn.

WH Smith is expected to report a fall in full-year profits with sales hit by tough competition and margins under pressure, particularly by the sale of cheaper CDs & Books by supermarkets. Analysts forecast annual profits of around 103m, down on last time when the figure of 122m represented an 8% fall. The company recently pulled out of the US by selling two businesses and now awaits the former boss of Argos to take over the helm next month.

BP oil holds a presentation to outline details of the assets it bought in post-Soviet Russia's biggest inward investment, the TNK-BP venture.FridayHarvey Nash Recruitment specialist reports interims with an upturn in the market they could easily beat market estimates.

Thoughts

In last weeks thoughts it looked like the FTSE & DOW would not break through the 3 year downtrend. It is difficult to be exact due to some doubts on the starting points but In either case the uptrend has now broken through and regained the 1 year uptrend channel.

I have extended this trend through to the end of the year and if it holds it gives us a range of 4400 to 4600. This should give an increase on Barclays & Lloyds of approx 20 points if the FTSE finishes at 4400 towards the bottom of the range up to +60 if it closes towards the top at 4600.

As far as next week is concerned I am going to put my money on a positive week with a big possibility of a 100+ points gain on the FTSE. But big gains will depend on U.S. corporate and economic performance as the U.S. reporting season hits top gear.

As always I look forward to your thoughts and comments on the week ahead!  David (Crocodile) David@FTSEDOW.COM  www.FTSEDOW.com   

All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended.  Please do your own research.

Headlines

Profit warnings fall to five-year low - Reuters Four private equity firms are vying to buy Tussauds Group for about 900 million pounds, the Sunday TimesBarclays says it plans to raise about 400 million pounds in debt secured against the assets of its life insurance business to help fund organic growth. Reuters Tom Singh, the founder of New Look Group is prepared to pay up to 700 million pounds to take it privateSainsbury heaped further misery on shareholders yesterday as it failed to capitalise on the hot summer weather and admitted its sales slump was getting worse. SMG was yesterday stocking its arsenal ahead of a head-to-head battle with Walt Disney over control of breakfast TV broadcaster GMTV.

Barclays looks to raise 400m from life bond Royal Bank of Scotland Ulster Bank introduces a 40-year first mortgage Amersham Castell to quadruple pay as GE chief Granada,Carlton ITV goes for Gold growth plan Galliford Business Digest Scottish and Newcastle Try Pub group Spirit to make Jones Britains richest landlady Bank of Ireland seeks to post quick profit in Royal Mail deal Sainsbury clan backs the boss ... for now Scotland: SMG vows to see off TV predators Cubic Expression wants seat on Man Utd board Scottish and Newcastle Queen of pubs takes on biggest challenge Bankers fees could sink EMI deal New Look Group wrings a bit more from Singh

Judgment Day: Should you be buying shares in Ryanair? Michael Greens and Charles Allen's working day Carlton Sunday Times

Goshawk Insurance Holdings Market Mole: Citywire reveals secret City deals Carlton,Granada The odd couple now showing on ITV Vital Statistics Granada Barclays Varley has to keep momentum going Sharewatch: Banking on delivery Royal Bank of Scotland William Lewis: Sir William of Amersham enters GEs inner circle Granada,Carlton Michael Greens and Charles Allen's working day Kpn They said they would lead the way in 3G with 1m users by Christmas. What do they know? Focus: Banking on Braveheart Royal Bank of Scotland Carlton Advertisers fear deal will mean higher prices Sharewatch: Mitchells & Butlers Directors' Deals: Directors 31m Photo-Me opportunity Focus: Over here and into everything Amersham Vital Statistics Carlton BAE Systems Concorde packs them in for its final days

Murdoch sells the $450m LA Dodgers Photo-Me International Non-exec share deals are not an infallible guide A Big Food lesson for Sainsbury, Lloyds Amersham 'It only took us two years to negotiate' City comment Granada, Carlton, Barclays, Lloyds

Kick off: final round of Debenhams' bid battle gets under way Murdoch Junior to undergo psychometric testing for BSkyB job

Sainsbury boss set to quit unless sales rise HSBC backs Randgold takeover bid for Ashanti BA pays 12m for four more landing slots at Heathrow Canary deal jeopardised by price cut BAE Systems Airbus ahead in race for 13bn RAF deal Fresh blow to Jarvis from NHS Shares rally ahead of RSA issue

Unfriendly feel about B&B Bradford & Bingley

All shall have prizes in Barclays musical chairs Carlton After the watershed Fever pitch at Old Trafford Carlton ITV merger to force rivals into ads link BA-AA alliance is still the only show in town British Airways After the watershed The Irish connection, by way of Gibraltar Manchester United ITV merger to force rivals into ads link  

Shock as Jarvis quits rail repairs, Not enough profit, too much criticism House prices up by nearly 19%, Halifax reveals North outstripping South Amersham falls to GE for 5.8bn, No threat to jobs, US giant promises Bristol & West branches axed. Plan to cut costs by 35m Heathrow Express strike is off, Management agrees to union talks Boots sales sizzle in the sun, Heatwave keeps figures healthy Shock plan to scrap Tube links, Crossrail would cut District line Rugby plans Covent Garden push, Property group and bank go on spree Murdoch faces Sky dilemma over son, 'Stand down if James becomes chief' Debt and cash deal for AMP, To raise 497m to fund demerger

Bosses' pay leaves workers standing, Top salaries rising six times faster

 BMG still open on EMI tie-up, 'We are talking to everybody' Sainsbury pays price for shake-up, Stores group admits slump is worsening Aussie hopes for 400m rugby boost, 40,000 well-heeled international visitors Wolfson hit with US patents lawsuit, On the verge of 200m London float Court U-turn costs StanChart 21m, Reverses ruling on securities contracts Napster back on song after rescue, Test version of new software Singapore swings after Sars, A round-up of Asia Pacific markets LDP pledges growth as poll looms, Election expected on 9 November Yen worries for Japanese exporters. Earning and capital spending will suffer SEC set to tighten US fund regulations, New rules to combat illegal trading

Monsoon threat to cut dividends, Founder says he will punish rebels

RBS, Barclays Banks snub 1bn PPP health scheme Bloodstock duo pull reins on Man U bid 3i Get Shirty, A tycoon tag fight at Old Trafford

Body Shop, Reckitt Benckiser, New Look Group Battle begins for mother of all wharfs After the fast talker, the quiet man, the new boss who has Barclays in his blood Battle begins for mother of all wharfs

Speedy Tool Hire plans to expand its national network from 250 depots to 400 over the next five years. A recent trading statement showed that sales in the first half increased by 14% overall and 9% on an underlying basis. At 395p the shares are trading on an earnings multiple of 10.5 times on expected profits growth of 16% for this year, which looks too low for a company that is growing quickly.

SMG switched on to takeover threat BT boss dials T for trouble Laragrove plans to increase Debenhams bid Barclays' competitors are only winners Scottish Radio to announce 18m Irish acquisition Capita Group Holdings Capital move for TV agents

Scottish and Newcastle Dipping into Karen Jones's Diary

Royal Bank of Scotland and NAB return to Abbey fray Malcolm wins giant Diageo distribution deal Lloyds TSB Scotland leads way for bank Royal Bank of Scotland gets knuckles rapped by advertising watchdog

Aberdeen Asset,EFM Confidence in the split cap sector recovers

 Corin hip replacement company is seen as a potential target for Smith & Nephew ever since US rival Zimmer stole Centerpulse from its clutches. Last week it emerged that two non-executive directors of Corin had acquired 90,000 shares at 1.80, prompting speculation S&N may be taking another look. Buy at 209p. Boots has released second-quarter sales weaker than most analysts expected despite suncream sales being up 15%. But the company was confident of improved margins over Christmas. Buy at 677.5p. Sainsbury's.sales fall for the third consecutive quarter Sell at 266.75p. Ultraframe construction company has reported a slowdown in sales of big ticket items towards the end of 2003. In the US orders remained strong, but the failure to explain whether Ultraframe should still be regarded as a growth stock means the shares must remain a hold at 269.5p. DFS orders are 3.9% lower than in the comparable period last year and the company has indicated profit progress may not be expected this year. Sell at 388p.

 Tips: Buy BP (BP) at 433p - Enterprise Inns (ETI) at 928p - Freeport (FPR) at 328p - Personal Group (PGH) at 180p - Golden Prospect (GOL) at 22p - Maclellan (MLG) at 78p.Tip Updates: Buy Glisten (GLI), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Scottish & Southern Energy (SSE). Sell Carpetright (CPR). Hold Debt Free Direct (DFD).Company Results:Buy Rugby Estates (RES).

Plays of the Week: Caledon Resources (CDN) - Filtronic (FTC) - Pursuit Dynamics (PDX) - Invox (INX) - Caffe Nero (CFN).  How the Plunging Dollar will affect your Portfolio: BP (BP) - HSBC (HSBA) - Vodafone (VOD) - GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) - Tomkins (TOMK) - Pearson (PSON).Elsewhere: Buy Northern Rock (NRK).Hold Acambis (ACM).Sell Shanks (SKS). Ottakar's (OKR) knows the plot.