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Traders Thread - Tuesday 2nd December (BARC)     

Crocodile - 01 Dec 2003 21:07

Premarket Futures FTSE +2 DAX +9 DOW -14 S&P -5 Nasdaq -1

1 Day 2 Day 5 Day - UK News

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FTSE 250

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FTSE Small Cap

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FTSE TechMark

1 Day 2 Day 5 Day  Futures  US News

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Nasdaq 100

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S&P 500

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S&P Futures

DAX / CAC    Euro News

Nikkei +7   Hang Seng -35 Asia News

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10 Year Bond

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UK/US charts have 1,2 or 5 day views. and now FT NEWS & Price link to UK, US & Asian markets. The Dax/CAC and Nikkei/Hang Seng are now switchable
News: Sorry Your browser is not java capable  

Rentokil Initial said it was confident of strong earnigns growth in 2003, and pledged to raise its 2004 dividend by at least 10 percent. Profit rose 4.9 percent on a 5.8 percent rise in sales

Barclays, Britain's third-biggest bank, says full-year profit will beat analysts' consensus as it maintains momentum from the first half.Bad debt provisions for the first nine months of this year were lower than a year earlier and operating income grew strongly, the bank said in a trading statement on Tuesday. "The strong and broadly based performance of the first half of 2003 continued into the third quarter," Barclays BARC.L chief executive Matt Barrett said in the statement.

Compass Group The world's biggest catering firm reported a 12 percent rise in annual profits to 654 million pounds and said it was well on the way to hitting its 2004 sales target

Scottish and Newcastle reported an eight percent rise in half-year profits and said it expected reasonable market conditions in 2004 although consumer confidence remains fragile. Profit of 316 million pounds for the 26 weeks towards the top of analyst forecasts of 295-318 million.

Sage Group software reported an encouraging start to 2004 trading on Tuesday as it reported a 12 percent rise in last year's pre-tax profit to 151 million pounds "With significant earnings enhancement expected from our recent acquisitions, the board views 2004 with confidence," Chairman Michael Jackson said in a statement.

WS Atkins moved into a first-half pre-tax profit on Tuesday and said trading in the second half of its financial year continued in line with its expectations.

Utraframe conservatory maker posted modestly higher year profits within analyst estimates, amid greater competitive pressures and after big-ticket sales slowed.

ukf.gif Calendar: United Kingdom
usf.gif United States (GMT)
euro.gif Europe & World (GMT

Compass Group (F) 657.7m exp. WS Atkins (I) Scottish & Newcastle (I) PBT 315m exp. Aberdeen Asset Management (F), Alba (I), Goldshield (I), Merant (Q2), Patientline (I), Protherics (I), Robert Wiseman Dairies (I), Sage Group (F), Shaftsbury (F), Synstar (F), Ultaframe (F), Warner Estate Holdings (I),

Barclays Trading Statement Rentokil Trading Statement Mitchells & Butlers Return of Capital. Terms are 68p a share Mitchells & Butlers Consolidation Ex Date. Terms are 12 New Shares for 7

09.30 Nov CIPS Construction Industry PMI 10.30 EEF Quarterly Trends Surve

Chico's

13.30 Total Vehicle Sales 16.3m exp.

Vivendi Universal (Q3), TFI

07.00 Oct German Retail Sales m/m 0.5% exp.

11.00 Oct PPI m/m flat exp. 11.00 Oct Unemployment Rate 8.8% exp

Croc@SnappyTrader.com  WWW.SnappyTrader.com

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ThePlayboy - 02 Dec 2003 07:09 - 2 of 25

We are a hair away from posting a new high, and invalidating the (1)-(2) pattern and forcing a cover signal and once again standing aside.
Alternate count that becomes the preferred is that this is wave C of wave 5 of the larger ending diagonal, and the fib at 10K comes into play.
The new high on the RSI negated the previous divergence, and is actually diverging opposite to what is normally seen - i.e. higher RSI without a higher price.
The pattern up from 9600 looks like a 3 wave affair so far with a=c right now, or very close to that.
It is bearish that we didn't manage to close at a new high for the move so far, and a decline from here back below 9700 is a bearish non-confirmation of the rally.
Of course even a slight pop at the open is all it takes to remove that signal.
So near term a decline right from the open should be a warning to bulls, and continued rally tomorrow is stand aside from short positions and back to waiting for a 5 wave pattern down and a 3 wave pattern up.
On a somewhat related note, the leading diagonal pattern shown did forcast a sharp rally to at the wave 2 high, which for all intents and purposes is where we are now.
Tomorrow should resolve it one way or another...


Updated 12/1 for Tuesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 12/2
UP Above 9,900
DN Below 9,825

At Major Resistance
Dow rallies to resistance at 9,900.

From prior commentary, "...The index continues to make its way higher toward the next major resisatnce level at 9,900, which is likely the next stop for the Dow. If the index can break through and hold above 9,800, look for the Dow to head higher toward this resistance level..."
The Dow got the upside break through 9,800 this morning and traded solidly higher to the major 9,900 resistance level, ending the session right at the level, as seen in the Daily and 60 Minute Charts.

The index has held at this level since the beginning of November, rejecting the Dow several times. This is definately the key fulcrum level to watch tomorrow, as a break or bounce here will likely dictate medium term direction.

An upside break through 9,900 will likely spark another solid uptrend within the already significant uptrending channel, seen in the Daily Chart.

Conversely, a downside reversal off this level will make a good case for a move lower, especially if 9,825 is broken to the downside. A break here could spark another move lower within the wide, expanding range, seen in the 60 Minute Chart.
The index may consolidate at the highs before a move either way is seen, as this level is quite important.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a clear lower trend line beneath the lows of the 1 Minute Chart. Look for the index to continue trending higher above this line. Otherwise, a break of the line at 9,895 will likely spark short term weakness at the Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Long at 9,843, but we stopped out at the entry early in the afternoon for a breakeven trade. We are now out of the market and will want to be Long above 9,900 using the 30 Minute Rule. We will look for Shorts below 9,825, with 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ has rallied to resistance, while the S&P has broken through its key resistance level. Watch for follow-through for the S&P and look for the NASDAQ to follow suit. *

Summary

The Dow rallied through much of the session today, gaining 117 points for the day. The index is now right at key resistance at 9,900, which we will watch closely tomorrow.



TUESDAYS FTSE PP

R2 4455
R1 4432
PP 4388
S1 4365
S2 4320

Close was above Mon R2 after gaining 3pts in the auction! 2 day ftse chart targeting 4430 with a brk of uptrend at 4400 to 4380 Sup! Have a good day everyone.

Crocodile - 02 Dec 2003 07:49 - 3 of 25

morning all!

Druid2 - 02 Dec 2003 07:58 - 4 of 25

Morning all. Thanks Croc & TP.

little woman - 02 Dec 2003 08:45 - 5 of 25

Morning all, Thanks Croc & TP

Druid2, what are up to these days, (apart from watching ETL & EZJ?)

PTI have just reported - Shareholder web page starts here:http://www.protherics.com/shareholders/default.htm

Melnibone - 02 Dec 2003 08:57 - 6 of 25

Morning all.

Can't get into D4F trading platform again.

Anyone else having the same problem?

Melnibone

Melnibone - 02 Dec 2003 09:02 - 7 of 25

Ah! It's working now.

How long for though?
Doesn't exactly fill you with confidence, does it.

Melnibone

little woman - 02 Dec 2003 09:04 - 8 of 25

Sorry, I took all my money out of my account with D4F & uninstalled the software - to stop temptation!

Melnibone - 02 Dec 2003 09:12 - 9 of 25

It is indeed a temptation.

You need to keep an iron discipline to avoid over-trading
and getting caught up in the moment with unplanned trades.

I'm afraid I do succumb now and then though. You can only
look at a plate of cream cakes for so long.:-)

Melnibone.

Druid2 - 02 Dec 2003 09:17 - 10 of 25

little woman - Also long on BARC,LLOY & SHEL with average price showing a profit but only have stops (in profit) on the ones well in profit hoping they won't be triggered as hoping to hold long term. Still holding NXT short (small position) in loss from months ago. Hope that my EZJ & ETL will be very long term so a lot with no stops and the lower prices with stops to avoid a disaster. As EZJ & ETL go up will consider adding at 2.5p increases (ezj) and 0.25p increases (etl) if conditions are right. Just to put things into perspective I am spread betting the above with small stakes on each transaction and this side of my share activities is as a hobby/interest only.

Douggie - 02 Dec 2003 09:18 - 11 of 25

gooday all

Melnibone - 02 Dec 2003 09:24 - 12 of 25

The market doesn't appear to know what to do.

I get the impression that it would dearly love to take
profits at the top of the trend channel, but is frightened
of being left behind if the US breaks to the upside towards
DOW 10,000.

I suppose I shouldn't think in these terms. Should 'talk the
talk' and waffle pompously about consolidation like all
these talking heads on TV. ;-)

Melnibone.

Melnibone - 02 Dec 2003 10:16 - 13 of 25

That dip down took LGEN back down to 100p which
is the bottom of the trend channel and round figure
support.

Couldn't resist and took some.

These cream cakes will be the death of me. ;-)

Melnibone

little woman - 02 Dec 2003 10:56 - 14 of 25

Looks like DYS is going up in anticipation of the results due out on Thursday.

ajren - 02 Dec 2003 11:02 - 15 of 25

Ultraframe:-

- 28.25/-11.29 per cent

It is an example of another company with terrible forward looking prospects
putting a nice P.R.front on their results and future aj

little woman - 02 Dec 2003 11:17 - 16 of 25

PSN going up again.

little woman - 02 Dec 2003 11:33 - 17 of 25

Holding some OOM (nearly 2 years) which are in danger of finally going into profit!

little woman - 02 Dec 2003 12:08 - 18 of 25

It looks like OOM is going to break 80p and continue up but VOD is struggling to break 140p - it may do it, but will not continue up.

little woman - 02 Dec 2003 13:04 - 19 of 25

It's as though the MM don't want either OOM or VOD to break the 1p!

Melnibone - 02 Dec 2003 15:13 - 20 of 25

I see the Bears are having another go at driving
MKS below support.

If they don't manage to keep it closed below 269p
for a few days they will have to re-think their
targets.
One to watch for a Bear squeeze higher if they fail I think.

Melnibone

little woman - 02 Dec 2003 15:45 - 21 of 25

Running late - supposed to be elsewhere.

Will check back in either really late tonight or market open to see whats happening
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